报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [8] 报告的核心观点 - 2023年报告研究的具体公司归母净利润47.89亿元同比提高54.71%，第四季度归母净利润13.96亿同比提高2693.91% [1] - 2024年受益天然气价格下跌乙烷均价下降，公司业绩有望增厚，且乙烷裂解路线较石脑油与煤制烯烃路线有成本优势 [2] - 2023年丙烯酸丁酯年均利润扭亏为盈，2024年单吨盈利有望增厚公司业绩 [3] - 连云港石化项目进入环评阶段，两期项目投产后公司乙烯产能将增长，提高C2产业链利润 [4] - 乙烷供需有望宽松，公司成本优势或将维持 [5] - 维持公司2024/2025年归母净利润57.2/67.7亿元，给予2026年归母净利润87.10亿元，对应EPS为1.70/2.01/2.59元/股，维持“买入”评级 [6] 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|37,044.00|41,486.92|51,306.88|60,029.04|78,037.76| |增长率(%)|29.72|11.99|23.67|17.00|30.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|6,985.22|9,874.50|9,774.78|10,316.89|12,318.95| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,061.99|4,789.49|5,720.97|6,773.68|8,710.06| |增长率(%)|(49.02)|56.42|19.45|18.40|28.59| |EPS(元/股)|0.91|1.42|1.70|2.01|2.59| |市盈率(P/E)|18.75|11.98|10.03|8.47|6.59| |市净率(P/B)|2.72|2.25|1.89|1.58|1.30| |市销率(P/S)|1.55|1.38|1.12|0.96|0.74| |EV/EBITDA|6.08|3.93|5.11|4.62|3.09| [7] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|5,531.53|6,398.84|7,190.58|8,937.23|20,441.70| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|675.92|639.44|785.75|881.72|1,285.99| |预付账款(百万元)|463.44|354.88|1,237.97|565.96|1,535.05| |存货(百万元)|3,876.58|4,233.44|5,162.98|5,825.55|8,723.23| |流动资产合计(百万元)|11,735.38|12,732.91|16,107.18|17,565.43|33,472.69| |长期股权投资(百万元)|2,238.57|2,471.47|2,471.47|2,471.47|2,471.47| |固定资产(百万元)|19,033.39|25,258.27|22,692.84|20,127.42|17,561.99| |在建工程(百万元)|4,913.08|3,186.40|186.40|4,186.40|7,086.40| |无形资产(百万元)|1,265.32|1,800.55|1,761.70|1,722.86|1,684.01| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|44,650.04|51,849.05|41,827.50|44,961.75|44,873.43| |资产总计(百万元)|56,385.42|64,581.96|57,934.68|62,527.18|78,346.12| |短期借款(百万元)|1,076.58|1,225.87|1,241.73|1,181.39|1,216.33| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|5,570.39|5,670.28|8,763.95|6,813.62|14,222.14| |流动负债合计(百万元)|9,549.83|11,097.93|14,515.61|12,896.10|20,854.07| |长期借款(百万元)|10,548.60|10,839.04|11,620.61|12,782.67|14,060.93| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|192.11|64.04|85.38| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|25,167.96|27,173.98|24,271.41|27,317.70|28,567.86| |负债合计(百万元)|35,234.99|39,088.61|38,787.02|40,213.80|49,421.93| |股东权益合计(百万元)|21,150.44|25,493.36|19,147.66|22,313.38|28,924.19| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|56,385.42|64,581.96|57,934.68|62,527.18|78,346.12| [10] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|37,044.00|41,486.92|51,306.88|60,029.04|78,037.76| |营业成本(百万元)|30,925.00|33,257.39|39,821.26|46,320.66|60,869.45| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|119.11|143.51|153.92|180.09|234.11| |销售费用(百万元)|88.13|145.27|138.53|162.08|210.70| |管理费用(百万元)|533.78|530.82|1,539.21|1,800.87|2,341.13| |研发费用(百万元)|1,238.10|1,626.01|3,078.41|3,601.74|4,682.27| |财务费用(百万元)|849.07|811.16|390.79|(272.49)|(553.50)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(14.84)|(10.78)|(36.49)|(21.26)|(22.84)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|(290.56)|187.37|588.32|(244.98)|16.10| |投资净收益(百万元)|399.03|(13.78)|(27.00)|(24.56)|(21.78)| |其他(百万元)|(250.77)|(567.87)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|3,447.96|5,377.82|6,709.59|7,945.29|10,225.07| |营业外收入(百万元)|11.16|10.66|13.94|18.29|14.30| |营业外支出(百万元)|14.18|20.45|15.79|19.17|18.47| |利润总额(百万元)|3,444.93|5,368.03|6,707.74|7,944.41|10,220.90| |所得税(百万元)|368.16|584.27|1,006.16|1,191.66|1,533.13| |净利润(百万元)|3,076.77|4,783.75|5,701.58|6,752.75|8,687.76| |少数股东损益(百万元)|14.78|(5.74)|(19.39)|(20.93)|(22.30)| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|3,061.99|4,789.49|5,720.97|6,773.68|8,710.06| |每股收益(元)|0.91|1.42|1.70|2.01|2.59| [10] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|3,076.77|4,783.75|5,720.97|6,773.68|8,710.06| |折旧摊销(百万元)|1,753.68|2,625.79|2,604.27|2,604.27|2,604.27| |财务费用(百万元)|989.02|991.88|390.79|(272.49)|(553.50)| |投资损失(百万元)|(399.03)|13.78|27.00|24.56|21.78| |营运资金变动(百万元)|209.24|(1,719.16)|899.11|(976.07)|3,673.51| |其它(百万元)|305.37|1,300.36|568.94|(265.91)|(6.20)| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|5,935.04|7,996.40|10,211.06|7,888.04|14,449.92| |资本支出(百万元)|(2,961.81)|5,833.10|668.63|2,048.48|2,978.14| |长期投资(百万元)|157.05|232.89|(207.61)|60.78|28.69| |其他(百万元)|85.97|(8,109.95)|2,529.83|(6,125.43)|(5,940.15)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(2,718.79)|(2,043.96)|2,990.85|(4,016.17)|(2,933.32)| |债权融资(百万元)|(4,364.77)|904.85|(13,225.23)|360.08|751.62| |股权融资(百万元)|(728.98)|(484.29)|(849.47)|(820.77)|(763.74)| |其他(百万元)|(2,888.35)|(5,492.45)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(7,982.10)|(5,071.89)|(14,074.70)|(460.69)|(12.13)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(4,765.84)|880.56|(872.79)|3,411.18|11,504.47| [11] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入增长率|29.72%|11.99%|23.67%|17.00%|30.00%| |营业利润增长率|-50.58%|55.97%|24.76%|18.42%|28.69%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|-49.02%|56.42%|19.45%|18.40%|28.59%| |毛利率|16.52%|19.84%|22.39%|22.84%|22.00%| |净利率|8.27%|11.54%|11.15%|11.28%|11.16%| |ROE|14.50%|18.81%|18.86%|18.67%|19.69%| |ROIC|21.58%|48.66%|41.48%|55.90%|65.24%| |资产负债率|62.49