报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/小家电，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [2] 报告的核心观点 - 2024Q1公司实现营业收入53.78亿元，同比+8.38%，归母净利润4.7亿元，同比+7.23% [1] - 24Q1公司核心刚需品类电水壶/电饭煲线上销额同比分别为+4.4%/+1.9%，核心品类增速表现较好 [1] - 2024Q1公司毛利率为24.42%，同比-0.8pct，净利率为8.73%，同比-0.08pct，预计是毛利率相对较低的外销增速较快带来的收入结构变化使利润率同比有所下降 [1] - 2024Q1公司季度销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别为10.94%、1.71%、1.75%、-0.57%，同比-0.13、-0.2、+0.08、-0.17pct [1] - 2024Q1公司货币资金+交易性金融资产为48.71亿元，同比6.6%，存货为19.82亿元，同比-5.59%，应收票据和账款合计为23.09亿元，同比+27.74% [1] - 2024Q1公司存货、应收账款和应付账款的周转天数分别为46.99、43.12和69.8天，同比-8.71、+9.53和+5.34天 [1] - 2024Q1公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为10.43亿元，同比+38.51%，其中销售商品及提供劳务现金流入52.62亿元，同比+22.86% [1] - 内销方面，线上新兴渠道销售持续发力，推动内销增长；外销方面，公司已发布与SEB的关联交易金额；预计24 - 26年归母净利润分别为24.0/26.0/28.1亿，对应动态PE分别为20x/18.4x/17x，维持“买入”评级 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|20,170.53|21,303.95|22,884.34|24,812.57|26,764.58| |增长率(%)|(6.55)|5.62|7.42|8.43|7.87| |EBITDA(百万元)|2,758.75|2,973.64|2,808.53|3,103.53|3,346.62| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|2,067.66|2,179.80|2,395.40|2,600.38|2,807.16| |增长率(%)|6.36|5.42|9.89|8.56|7.95| |EPS(元/股)|2.56|2.70|2.97|3.22|3.48| |市盈率(P/E)|23.14|21.95|19.97|18.40|17.04| |市净率(P/B)|6.80|7.54|6.81|6.45|5.55| |市销率(P/S)|2.37|2.25|2.09|1.93|1.79| |EV/EBITDA|12.48|12.63|15.51|14.49|12.11| [4] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|3,563.14|3,548.28|2,860.54|372.19|5,352.92| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|1,953.84|2,873.56|2,495.72|5,085.90|3,092.17| |预付账款(百万元)|339.61|193.17|461.81|275.82|466.15| |存货(百万元)|2,494.92|2,262.68|3,410.69|2,754.00|3,863.58| |其他(百万元)|1,166.86|1,159.00|1,465.24|2,014.50|1,557.15| |流动资产合计(百万元)|9,518.37|10,036.69|10,694.00|10,502.41|14,331.96| |长期股权投资(百万元)|62.20|61.68|61.68|61.68|61.68| |固定资产(百万元)|1,303.08|1,243.21|1,113.20|983.20|853.19| |在建工程(百万元)|12.01|26.86|26.86|26.86|26.86| |无形资产(百万元)|440.02|428.98|402.62|376.25|349.89| |其他(百万元)|1,616.99|1,309.28|1,276.99|1,401.08|1,329.12| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|3,434.28|3,070.01|2,881.35|2,849.08|2,620.74| |资产总计(百万元)|12,952.66|13,106.70|13,575.35|13,351.49|16,952.70| |短期借款(百万元)|0.00|199.74|151.63|75.25|29.96| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|3,693.13|4,440.61|4,018.19|3,592.61|5,825.28| |其他(百万元)|868.04|1,021.44|2,167.54|2,126.89|2,358.16| |流动负债合计(百万元)|4,561.17|5,661.79|6,337.36|5,794.75|8,213.40| |长期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|164.86|200.38|179.10|100.00|80.00| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|164.86|200.38|179.10|100.00|80.00| |负债合计(百万元)|5,879.97|6,724.87|6,516.46|5,894.75|8,293.40| |少数股东权益(百万元)|36.61|36.50|39.34|39.28|39.11| |股本(百万元)|808.65|806.71|806.71|806.71|806.71| |资本公积(百万元)|125.37|173.11|165.03|165.03|165.03| |留存收益(百万元)|6,222.24|5,872.75|6,296.18|6,737.65|7,997.64| |其他(百万元)|(120.18)|(507.23)|(248.37)|(291.93)|(349.18)| |股东权益合计(百万元)|7,072.69|6,381.83|7,058.89|7,456.74|8,659.30| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|12,952.66|13,106.70|13,575.35|13,351.49|16,952.70| [5] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|20,170.53|21,303.95|22,884.34|24,812.57|26,764.58| |营业成本(百万元)|14,969.33|15,700.13|16,888.37|18,265.93|19,680.75| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|130.69|142.25|148.75|161.28|173.97| |销售费用(百万元)|2,156.30|2,297.85|2,402.86|2,580.51|2,783.52| |管理费用(百万元)|374.06|393.60|423.36|459.03|495.14| |研发费用(百万元)|416.26|431.29|446.24|483.85|521.91| |财务费用(百万元)|(97.42)|(67.63)|(61.79)|(14.89)|(16.06)| |/信用减值损失(百万元)|23.17|(19.95)|(8.34)|(17.41)|(13.48)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|1.38|1.14|4.03|6.42|6.72| |投资净收益(百万元)|54.05|48.81|68.65|65.59|65.35| |营业利润(百万元)|2,535.24|2,681.32|2,911.26|3,173.76|3,425.47| |营业外收入(百万元)|14.44|15.27|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业外支出(百万元)|4.46|11.87|0.00|0.00|0.00| |利润总额(百万元)|2,545.21|2,684.72|2,950.26|3,202.76|3,457.47| |所得税(百万元)|479.03|505.30|555.24|602.76|650.70| |净利润(百万元)|2,066.18|2,179.42|2,395.02|2,600.00|2,806.78| |少数股东损益(百万元)|(1.48)|(0.38)|(0.38)|(0.38)|(0.38)| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|2,067.66|2,179.80|2,395.40|2,600.38|2,807.16| |每股收益(元)|2.56|2.70|2.97|3.22|3.48| [5] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|2,066.18|2,179.42|2,395.40|2,600.38|2,807.16| |折旧摊销(百万元)|151.82|159.84|156.37|156.37|156.37| |财务费用(百万元)|(12.25)|(10.41)|(61.79)|(14.89)|(16.06)| |投资损失(百万元)|(53.91)|(48.82)|(68.65)|(65.59)|(65.35)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|1,596.57|534.96|(1,745.26)|(2,085.04)|3,170.39| |其它(百万元)|(588.46)|(780.08)|3.65|6.04|6.35| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|3,159.96|2,034.91|679.72|597.27|6,058.85| |资本支出(百万元)|140.13|67.76|21.28|79.10|20.00| |长期投资(百万元)|(3.40)|(0.52)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|(608.78)|(311.69)|323.56|(904.53)|534.96| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(472.06)|(244.45)|344.84|(825.43)|554.96| |债权融资(百万元)|110.16|273.01|5.67|(58.04)|(28.87)| |股权融资(百万元)|(3,447.86)|(341.26)|(1,717.96)|(2,202.16)|(1,604.21)| |其他(百万元)|572.17|(2,713.42)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(2,765.53)|(2,781.66)|(1,712.29)|(2,260.20)|(1,633.08)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0