Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show China in a Bull Shop Scores on the Doors: oil 62.5%, global stocks 12.7%, US stocks 12.5%, US dollar 3.0%, cash 2.7%, HY bonds 0.6%, gold -1.1%, IG -2.8%, bitcoin -3.7%, govt bonds -4.0% YTD. Zeitgeist: "Policymakers never run out of ammunition. But they can run out of credibility, and when they do, more ammo needed to restore financial order." Zeitgeist: "Trump would love Xi's bond yields, but Xi don't want Trump's stock market." The Biggest Pic ...

Q3 Winners & Losers: winners... bitcoin 43%, oil 42%, software 18%, Mag7 11%; losers... zero-coupon bonds -15% (Chart 3), semis -11%, industrials -10%, Korea -8%. Zeitgeist: "Rates don't matter when you're curing cancer." The Price is Right: best of times, worst of times... tighter financial conditions crushing equity breadth... 400 SPX stocks trading below 50dma, 300 stocks <200dma as market trading "long artificial intelligence" (NDX), "short artificial irrelevance" (SPW), confident MAG7, AI, biotech (Cha ...

Accessible version Global Fund Manager Survey The Sixth Sense BofA October Global Fund Manager Survey Bottom Line: heading into midterms, FOMC & Q3 earnings, investors remain bullish on macro & markets, running low 3.9% cash levels, waiting for ~6% yields before flipping from stocks to bonds; relative to FMS positioning, big consumer +ve drop in oil to <$80/bbl = the Q4 bull surprise, AI capex cut = the bear surprise. On Macro: "boom" optimism highest since Feb'22, inflation expectations lowest since Jan'25 ...

Accessible version The Flow Show Sell Signal Ends Scores on the Doors: oil 70.0%, US stocks 1 3.1%, global stocks 10.2%, US dollar 3.8%, cash 2.9%, HY bonds -0.9%, IG -3.2%, govt bonds -4.4%, gold -4.5%, bitcoin -6.1% YTD. The Biggest Picture: summer of extreme bull sentiment ends, but asset allocators are not underweight risk; '26 record year of inflows (Charts 15-16) to global stocks ($1.3tn annualized), US equities ($636bn), IG bonds ($480bn), tech funds ($196bn – Chart 2), Korea equities ($76bn) vs. rec ...