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RBI Governor expects deposit rates to ease but that may not be easy
The Economic Times· 2025-12-06 02:56
One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.Replying to a question by reporters during the post-monetary policy press conference, Malhotra said deposit rates should reflect "When inflation is so low and going forward also it's going to be low..., then even though the nominal interest rates may seem to be low...real interest rates today are quite high. So, that's true not only for borrowers but also for savers. And so, we do expect that going forward, especially after this RBI data showed that the cumulative 1 ...
Deposit rates may have bottomed out, hints RBI data
The Economic Times· 2025-11-04 08:41
存款利率趋势 - 印度银行新定期存款的加权平均成本上升了4个基点,表明存款利率可能已触及当前周期的最低点 [1] - 新定期存款平均利率从2025年8月的5.56%上升至9月的5.60%,这是自3月以来的首次上升 [2] - 新定期存款利率已从3月记录的峰值6.65%下降,反映了印度储备银行今年累计100个基点的回购利率下调 [6] 利率变动驱动因素 - 利率小幅上升反映了边际流动性趋紧,原因可能包括印度储备银行在外汇市场的干预以及信贷需求的增加 [5] - 商品及服务税税率下调后信贷增长正在加速,近一个月左右大额存款利率也有所上升,这也可能导致平均定期存款利率上升 [8] - 银行间对资金的竞争加剧也推动了存款利率的变动 [7] 未偿存款与银行利润率 - 未偿卢比定期存款平均利率从2025年8月的6.87%微降至9月的6.82%,因银行以较低利率对到期存款重新定价 [9] - 银行净息差正在改善,例如印度巴罗达银行报告2025年9月末净息差为2.96%,优于6月的2.91% [12] - 除非印度储备银行进一步降息,否则利润率应会持续改善 [12] 未来展望 - 如果利率不再进一步下降,则可以稳妥地认为存款利率已经触底 [5] - 由于信贷增长加速且银行需与其他零售投资渠道竞争储户资金,存款利率从此处大幅下降的可能性不大 [10]