Steve Leeman, CNBC. Mr. . Chairman, can you characterize the uh the meeting in terms of you said strongly differing views was this a close call this cut or was it a close call maybe the other way because you had dissents on both sides.Thanks. >> So I was referring to uh the discussion about to the extent it related to December. You saw we had we had two descents, one for 50 and one for no cut.So, um, you know, that was a strong solid vote in favor of this cut. This the strongly, uh, uh, differing views were ...

By Promit Mukherjee OTTAWA (Reuters) -The Bank of Canada reduced its key overnight interest rate to 2.25% on Wednesday, as widely expected, and signaled this could mark an end to its cutting cycle unless the outlook for inflation and economy changed. The 25 basis point cut, the second in row, brings down the rate to the lowest since July 2022. Governor Tiff Macklem said the easing was designed to help the economy deal with the disruption done by U.S. tariffs while keeping inflation close to the bank's 2 ...

货币政策展望 - 日本央行可能在10月29-30日的政策会议上加息 市场预期加息概率约为50% [1] - 若央行在10月会议上修订增长预测并调整通胀将短暂低于2%的预期 则没有理由推迟加息 [4] - 另一种可能是央行将加息推迟至明年3月左右 以便更清晰地评估美国关税对明年薪资谈判的影响 [2] 经济与通胀预测 - 日本央行可能在下次季度评估中上调经济和通胀预测 [1] - 当前预测显示本财年经济扩张0.6% 2026财年扩张0.7% 核心消费通胀在2025年达到2.7% 2026年放缓至1.8% [5] - 第二季度经济年化增长率为2.2% 高于初步估计 主要受强劲消费推动 [5] 政策决策依据 - 央行决策需审视美国关税对日本经济和薪资前景的预期影响 [2] - 若央行更关注下行风险 可能不会在10月加息 因近期数据显示出口和企业利润存在疲软迹象 [4] - 10月1日发布的季度短观商业调查可能影响央行下月加息决定 [6] 近期政策动态 - 日本央行上周将利率维持在0.5%不变 但有两名董事会成员持异议 提议将利率提高至0.75% [4] - 加息25个基点对经济增长影响甚微 因为借贷成本仍将低于对经济中性的水平 [3]

货币政策路径 - 美联储最新点阵图显示2025年将额外增加两次降息预期[1] - 本次会议决定降息25个基点 将基准利率下调至4%-4.25%区间[2] - 预计到2025年底基准利率将降至3.5%-3.75%区间 相比6月预测的3.75%-4%进一步下降[1][2] - 对今年底联邦基金利率的预测中值为3.6% 低于6月预测的3.9%[4] - 2026年利率预测维持不变 仍预计有一次降息[5] 经济预测更新 - 央行上调了今年底的经济增长预测 同时维持对通胀和失业率的预测不变[3] - 在政策声明中提示就业面临的下行风险已经增加[3] - 美联储主席鲍威尔强调当前面临双向风险 劳动力市场强劲与通胀压力并存[4] 政策立场与市场预期 - 此次降息标志着新的宽松周期开始 2024年已累计降息100个基点[5] - 决策前市场已定价2025年两到三次降息[5] - FOMC内部对近期政策路径存在明显分歧 18名官员预测2025年至少一次降息 一名官员甚至预测六次降息[6] - 仅一名委员预计今年利率不变 较6月时的七名委员大幅减少 显示整体立场转向鸽派[6] - 鲍威尔承认观点分散度很大 认为在当前异常情况下存在广泛观点是自然的[7]