Kolmogorov - Markov framework layered with kernel density estimations (KM - KDE)
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Options Corner: Taiwan Semiconductor's Trade Secret Dispute With Intel Presents A Contrarian Opportunity - Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM)
Benzinga· 2025-11-26 05:54
公司动态 - 台积电正在将其先进的2纳米制程晶圆厂从7个扩建至10个,以应对人工智能需求的激增[1] - 公司对一名离职后加入英特尔的前资深副总裁提起诉讼,指控其有"高度可能性"泄露公司机密信息给竞争对手英特尔[2][3] - 该法律纠纷引发了市场对台积电在先进AI芯片制造领域领导地位可能受到英特尔挑战的担忧[3] 市场表现与交易策略 - 台积电股价在周二出现明显下跌,但期权数据显示大额交易者对其看法偏多[5] - 基于Kolmogorov-Markov框架和核密度估计的量化分析显示,台积电股票在未来10周的中位数回报区间为$272至$312,假设锚定价格为$282[11] - 在特定的"4-6-U"市场信号下,预期回报区间扩大至$256至$342,且概率密度更偏向正面[12][13] - 分析指出价格可能在$290和$310形成聚集,看涨概率较高[14] - 建议的交易策略是买入2026年1月16日到期的$290/$300看涨价差组合,最大亏损为$420,潜在最大收益为$580,盈亏平衡点为$294.20[19][20]
Options Corner: QuantumScape's Meltdown Offers A Potential Bounce-Back Trade - QuantumScape (NYSE:QS)
Benzinga· 2025-11-22 05:14
While technology companies of all stripes could seemingly do no wrong for much of this year, the sector received a harsh reality check recently — and QuantumScape Corp (NYSE:QS) was one of the key victims. Although the solid-state battery developer potentially represents a critical cog in advanced mobility, investor sentiment suffered under a risk-off environment. As such, QS stock suffered badly since Halloween. Still, there could be an opportunity amid the red ink.In a nutshell, QuantumScape offers a pote ...