Key Takeaways Mastercard projects U.S. holiday retail sales to rise 3.6% year over year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24.Online sales are expected to climb 7.9%, while brick-and-mortar sales see a more modest 2.3% gain.Tariffs may raise costs for toys, apparel and decor, intensifying shoppers' price sensitivity this season.Mastercard Incorporated (MA) projects U.S. holiday retail sales (excluding autos) to rise 3.6% year over year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, 2025. That is a step down from the 4.1% gain recorded l ...