涉及的行业与公司 * **行业**: 中国工业板块，具体涵盖资本货物、自动化、电池设备、人形机器人、数据中心冷却、激光设备、工业阀门、超声波焊接、精密机械、制冷与压缩机等多个细分领域[1][4][9] * **提及的公司**: * **覆盖公司 (Overweight评级)**: Envicool (英维克)[3][9][20], Han‘s Laser (大族激光)[3][9][16], Wuxi Lead (先导智能)[3][9][31], Neway Valve (纽威股份)[3][9][24], Geekplus (极智嘉)[9][12][28], Sany (三一重工)[9], Leaderdrive (绿的谐波)[9], Hengli Hydraulic (恒立液压)[9] * **其他提及公司**: KSTAR (科士达)[3][4][34], Orbbec (奥比中光)[3][12], SBT Ultrasonic (骄成超声)[3][40], Hanbell (汉钟精机)[3][44], Precision Tsugami (津上机床)[3][38], Weichai Power (潍柴动力)[5], TARS (未上市)[12], Galaxea (未上市)[12], Mech-Mind (未上市)[12], Noetix (未上市)[12], Inovance (汇川技术)[39], 以及Avary Hldg (鹏鼎控股)、Unimicron (欣兴电子)、CATL (宁德时代)、BYD (比亚迪)、NVIDIA (英伟达)、Meta、Schneider (施耐德)、Apple (苹果)等产业链客户[4][5][17][18][23][31] 核心观点与论据 行业整体趋势与周期确认 * 资本货物上行周期得到确认，反馈显示新订单势头良好，高端新产品积极推出，海外市场扩张活跃[1] * AI技术迭代和持续产业升级为中国领先企业提供了弯道超车的机会，凭借快速的产品升级和交付能力，以及海外玩家的产能瓶颈，加速渗透全球客户[5] * 除了AI资本支出，国内产业升级、海外扩张和全球供应链去风险化共同支撑了强劲的资本货物周期[9] * 参与全球供应链是国内厂商的关键利润驱动力，因为产品平均售价和利润率更高[10] * 中国公司的高端产业本土化和海外扩张进展顺利，几乎所有公司都在强调其海外战略并加大投资以获取全球市场份额[11] 细分领域需求与订单势头 * **需求强劲的领域**: 围绕AI供应链、电池、3C、半导体的需求呈现强势[4] * **需求谨慎的领域**: 部分公司对汽车、太阳能、空调的前景保持谨慎[4][9] * **具体公司订单表现**: * **Wuxi Lead (先导智能)**: 2026年前两个月获得约60亿元人民币新订单，相当于2025年第一季度的水平[4][31] * **Han’s Laser (大族激光)**: 对2026-2027年3C领域有更高预期，受苹果新产品创新和3D打印增量需求支持[4] * **Geekplus (极智嘉)**: 预计2026年新订单同比增长35-40%，其中80%来自海外[11][28] * **SBT Ultrasonic (骄成超声)**: 预计2026年新订单和收入同比增长约30%[40] * **Neway Valve (纽威股份)**: 对未来几年新订单年增长目标为约20%[24] AI与新技术驱动的增长点 * AI正在为大量工业公司培育新的增长动力，带来强劲的订单增长和显著的利润率扩张[9] * **具体案例**: * **Envicool (英维克)**: 液冷技术面向ASIC客户[5] * **Han’s Laser (大族激光)**: 在超快激光钻孔领域取得突破，成为领先的非本土板卡制造商（如鹏鼎控股、欣兴电子）的唯一供应商[5][17] * **Weichai Power (潍柴动力)**: 发电机供应给美国AIDC[5] * **Wuxi Lead (先导智能)**: 固态电池设备供应给韩国/日本电池制造商[5] * **机器人/人形机器人**: * 推动商业化：脑公司（专注于AI模型）在不断改进模型，预计在一两年内开始向下游客户授权其模型[13] * 数据是核心焦点和未来核心资产，公司正转向可穿戴动作捕捉设备以扩大数据集多样性[14] * 随着重点从移动转向操作，需要更多传感器（如摄像头），结构光是关键解决方案[15] 海外扩张战略与进展 * 海外市场是大多数公司的关键焦点[11] * **Han’s Laser (大族激光)**: 近期宣布约1.5亿美元的海外运营中心，主要用于3D打印和PCB扩张[11][19] * **Geekplus (极智嘉)**: 新订单中80%来自中国以外[11] * **Mech-Mind (未上市)**: 海外收入占比达到约50%[11] * **Galaxea (未上市)**: 海外收入占比约30%，关键客户包括英伟达和Physical Intelligence[11] * **Envicool (英维克)、Kstar (科士达)、Neway Valve (纽威股份)**: 也提到了在东南亚、中东或美国的海外产能计划[11] * **汇率影响**: Neway Valve指出，由于约60%出口且出口结算以美元为主（约90%），人民币升值可能拖累综合毛利率1-2%[26] 公司具体展望与财务指引 * **Han’s Laser (大族激光)**: * **2026年展望**: PCB板块预计同比增长约40亿元，3C板块增长约15亿元，新能源贡献数亿元同比增长，半导体和通用激光业务大致持平[16] * **PCB增长**: 2026年收入可能达到约100亿元，超快激光钻孔需求约200台（单价约500-700万元人民币），其中约一半来自英伟达[17] * **3C增长**: 2026年3C收入指引上调至40亿元，2027年苹果新产品（很可能是中框）可能采用3D打印设备，带来约60亿元设备需求，公司目标份额80%以上[18] * **新能源业务**: 2025年电池业务收入约25亿元，亏损约1亿元；计划将客户结构转向非宁德时代客户，目标2026年该板块亏损收窄至约1亿元[19] * **毛利率**: 中期有信心毛利率恢复至约35%[16] * **Envicool (英维克)**: * **海外扩张**: 2026年是首个量产年，预计下半年（尤其是第四季度）数据中心海外客户将开始做出有意义的贡献[20][21] * **产能与产品**: UQD（快插接头）产能较早期扩张了“数十倍”，在Meta的交换机冷板份额超过50%[22] * **储能**: 对2026年ESS需求持乐观态度，将恢复比亚迪的国内份额，并开始与美国客户进行多产品组合交付（单次发货价值较之前提升2-3倍）[23] * **Wuxi Lead (先导智能)**: * **订单结构**: 2025年新订单中，约50%来自国内电池，约25%来自海外电池，约15%来自3C，其余约10%来自太阳能、激光等[31] * **客户集中度**: CATL（宁德时代）占2025年总新订单约25%（2024年为约18%）[31] * **技术升级与利润率**: 固态电池正从“0→1”发展，海外先行，中国加速追赶[32]；液态电池设备在中国价值1-1.5亿元/GWh，海外2-3亿元/GWh；固态电池试验线>5亿元/GWh[32]；液态电池毛利率中国约40%，海外约45%，固态电池将达到约50%[32]；2025年获得约10亿元固态电池订单，其中约70%来自海外客户（如LG）[32] * **竞争地位**: 在中国液态电池设备市场占有率约40%，在固态电池领域地位更强，良率优势明显（70-80% vs 其他<50%）[33] * **Neway Valve (纽威股份)**: * **未来增长点**: 未来3-5年，核能、水处理（包括数据中心冷却、海水淡化、污水处理）以及售后/服务将带来弹性增长，目标合计年收入达到约25亿元[25] * **资本支出**: 2025-2027年每年2-3亿元人民币[27] * **Kstar (科士达)**: * **数据中心**: 预计2026年国内外数据中心板块增长将加速，2025年该板块收入同比增长20%以上[34] * **储能**: 2025年ESS收入同比增长一倍，预计2026年同比增长约50%[37]；约95%的ESS收入来自海外[37] * **Precision Tsugami (津上机床)**: * **2026年展望**: 预计出货量同比持平，其中汽车可能同比下降10%以上，3C同比增长50%以上，液冷同比增长一倍（达到2-3千台 vs 2025年的1千多台）[38] * **市场份额**: 在AI液冷QD加工机床市场占有率约30%[38] * **SBT Ultrasonic (骄成超声)**: * **2026年指引**: 净利润2亿元人民币以上[40] * **市场份额目标**: 计划将线束领域市场份额从2025年约20%提升至2026年约30-40%，在电池领域保持强势地位（整体市场份额约60%）[41] * **Hanbell (汉钟精机)**: * **2026年展望**: 预计制冷和空气压缩板块收入同比增长10-15%，真空泵板块同比微增[44] * **数据中心**: 2025年来自数据中心的收入约1亿元人民币[44] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * **机器人商业化关键**: 大规模采用的关键在于：(1) 稳定性，(2) 通用性（需要更少的训练样本以降低边际部署成本），(3) 可扩展性（新部署无需人员支持）[13] * **模型结构分歧**: 存在关于VLA（视觉语言动作）是否是最终机器人模型结构的不确定性，TARS公司反对VLA，更倾向于VA（视觉动作）模型[14] * **具体传感器选择**: 结构光在短距离精度上优于LiDAR，LiDAR擅长长距离（数百米）检测[15] * **Geekplus的具身AI进展**: 其机械臂解决方案已在施耐德完成概念验证，准备商业化，目前具身AI仍受限于结构化环境，因此专注于物流领域的商业化[29][30] * **Kstar的新产品时间表**: HVDC（高压直流）可能在某些大型新数据中心场景取代UPS，但UPS在许多中小型场景仍是首选[35]；SST（固态变压器）是更长期的方向，原型目标在今年底完成，规模化应用至少要到明年[36] * **研究偏好**: 在本次调研的公司中，最看好Geekplus、Han‘s Laser、Wuxi Lead；同时也看好Sany、Leaderdrive、Hengli Hydraulic、Neway Valve、Envicool[9]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>AI Infrastructure - China Expert call: Liquid cooling penetration rate in China to rise to 35-50%; export to grow Industry Overview Liquid cooling penetration rate to rise to 35-50% We hosted an expert call with Junyuan Duan, CEO and founder of Air & Liquid Cooling Technology Limited, to discuss China liquid cooling market outlook and upside from AIDC. The expert is positive on liquid cooling market. He expects the liquid cooling penetration rate in China to increase to 35-50% (vs. currently 5%), driven by the government's guidance on data center construction and product requirement of new NVIDIA chips. Yet, the expert thinks that the coexistence of air cooling and liquid cooling will last long, with air-cooling penetration continuing at 50-60% in the future as only GPU with high computing power needs liquid cooling. In the newly constructed AIDC, over 70% of liquid cooling equipment is manufactured by domestic makers, and CDUs are mostly jointly developed by data center operators and cooling equipment suppliers.</doc> <doc id='2'>China cooling equipment makers exports expected to grow The overseas market comprises c.90% of the global liquid cooling market. Currently, CDU and UQD in the cooling supply chain in SEA are dominated by overseas brands, but secondary side piping and manifold are mainly supplied by Chinese manufacturers. It is difficult for Chinese brands to enter the supply chain of overseas liquid cooling system, as 1) it takes 2-4 months to get product certification; 2) the certification fee is as high as RMB300-500k. China Internet firms are building AIDC in Southeast Asia given 1) advanced chip import limitations; 2) lower power tariffs in SEA compared with tier-1 cities in China. Therefore, Chinese cooling equipment makers are expected to have more export opportunities with better pricing and relationships with China internet firms.</doc> <doc id='3'>Cold-plate cooling has 90%+ share vs immersion at 5-10% On data center construction cost, the expert said that on average the DC power supply system takes 50-60% of the cost and cooling system takes 30-40%, with liquid cooling/air cooling each accounting for half. On DC power demand, the cooling system takes only 10-30% of power consumption, while IT equipment consumes the majority. As such, compared with the government's PUE requirement, the expert thinks that it is mainly the product requirement of the advanced chips that drives liquid cooling demand. In terms of details, cold plate liquid cooling is the mainstream (c.90%+ market share) in China, driven by GB200, and immersion liquid cooling is in the trial stage, with market share at 5-10%. However, the expert believes that immersion liquid cooling penetration will grow on 1) simple design and 2) low risk of cooling liquid leakage and maintenance. The expert said that the possibility and cost to upgrade existing air cooling to liquid cooling depends on the current cooling source. For pure air cooling without piping, it is difficult to upgrade to liquid cooling. Yet, for others, liquid-to-liquid cooling can be applied on mid-/large-size equipment, and liquid-to-air cooling can be applied on small- scale equipment.</doc> <doc id='4'>>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.</doc> <doc id='5'>BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 2 to 3. 12869513 25 August 2025 Equity China AI Infrastructure Matty Zhao >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 4001 matty.zhao@bofa.com Yibing Xia >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 8045 yibing.xia@bofa.com AIDC: AI Data Center CDU: Cooling distribution units DC: Data center k: thousand PUE: Power Usage Effectiveness SEA: Southeast Asia UQD: Universal Quick Disconnect</doc> <doc id='6'>Disclosures Important Disclosures BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. 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Levels and basis for taxation may change.</doc> <doc id='17'>This report may contain a short-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst or event impacting the issuer or the market that is anticipated to have a short-term price impact on the equity securities of the issuer. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations are different from and do not affect a