ab 1 July 2025 Global Research Global Oil Fundamentals Oil price update: from risk premium to risk discount? Marginal increase to 2025 oil price forecast We raise marginally our 2025 Brent price forecast by $1/bbl to$67/bbl with this update. Oil prices were very volatile in 2Q25, trading in a >$20/bbl range on the back of tariff risks and the Iran/Israel attacks which sparked a short-lived spike in the risk premium. Prices only ended up ~$2/bbl above our expectations in 2Q25 though and we raise our Brent p ...