[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- 02 Sep 2025 10:06:48 ET │ 12 pages Shengyi Technology (600183.SS) Key Takeaways from 2Q25 Results Briefing; Rising Order Momentum CITI'S TAKE SYTECH hosted a small group at a results briefing today. Key takeaways are 1) monthly shipment to high-speed material (mostly AI-related) to 800-900k sheets during 3Q25 from 700-800k sheets at end-2Q25, i.e., 10-15% rise of run rate, 2) majority of AI-related CCL business is the shipment to NVDA GB200 and GB300 (mainly for switches on M8 PCB) YTD, 3) new plants development in Jiangxi and Thai are underway, 4) ASP remains firm but it may not rise in the near term unless there is surge in demand from non-AI segments. Stock corrected by 10% from latest high presents an enhanced buying opportunity. Citi Industrial | SMID | Transport conference in Mandarin Oriental hotel, HK on 24- 25 Sep — Click here for registration with >50 corporates of A-/H-shares participating. Regarding AI Industrial theme, Kingboard Laminate, Envicool, Megmeet have confirmed. More than 30 corporates have confirmed so far. Strong orders in 3Q enables SYTECH for mix upgrade – Mgmt sees good order momentum for 3Q25 in excess of its full capacity. Thus, mgmt. has more room to upgrade product mix towards AI-oriented products away from non-AI downstream such as home appliances, smartphones, consumer electronics. Mgmt shared the monthly shipment of high-speed CCL (solely AI orientated) as 700-800k sheets at end-2025. We believe the monthly run rate has increased by 10-15% to 800-900k sheets for 3Q25, implying 10%+ of the total monthly capacity of 8m+ sheets. This shift could enable SYTECH to post possible positive surprise on GM during 3Q25. See Fig 1 for our estimation of rev split by downstream applications. Working on high-end AI products – We see majority of AI-CCL shipment is related to NVDA GB200 and GB300 servers solely used in M8 PCB for switches. But the volume of AI-CCL for GB300 server remains a much smaller quantity compared with GB200 at this point in time. We don't rule out possibility that the shipment of GB300 CCL products may elevate from early 4Q. On the other hand, the company has delivered the CCL for M9 PCB of Rubin server under product certification. The fabric for M9 is Q glass basis versus M6-M8 thru low Dk/1 and Dk/2. Again, mgmt. believes SYTECH is a latecomer to the NVDA CCL supply chain compared with current major foreign rivals for NVDA like EMC, Doosan and Panasonic. But this doesn't mean its product has lower quality or reliability as SYTECH primarily works on newer products for NVDA. At the end of day, mgmt strongly believe high product quality, reliable services and scale operation remain crucial to win sizable orders despite being a latecomer. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals. Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors. Buy | Price (02 Sep 25 15:00) | Rmb49.500 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb60.000 | | Expected share price return | 21.2% | | Expected dividend yield | 1.7% | | Expected total return | 23.0% | | Market Cap | Rmb120,249M | | | US$16,847M | Eric LauAC +852-2501-2726 eric.h.lau@citi.com Alice Cai +852-2501-2704 alice.cai@citi.com ASIC certification still takes time – SYTECH has delivered CCL samples for ASIC GPU vendors for testing but there is no time frame of successful certification. Mgmt believe CN company usually takes longer to attain certification. New plants in Thai and Jiangxi will commence soon – Jiangxi plant with monthly capacity of 1.5m sheets will commence during 4Q25. Additionally, Thai plant with monthly capacity of 0.7m sheets will kick off during 1Q26. Thai plant will mainly focus on auto, datacenter server and substrate. No plan for HK listing – Unlike many A-share Industrial companies, SYTECH has no plan to seek fund raising via HK listing. The company has strong cash flow generation so it will finance Thai / Jiangxi plants via internal cash flow. In addition, SYTECH's global franchise is reputable enough and thus doesn't require a listing in HK. Core fabric material supplier – SYTECH sees the upstream supply is reasonable including low Dk/2. This differs from what the market perceives as the severe shortage of low Dk/2. We think the company prefers to work closely with CN fabric supplier (like Feilihua 300395.SZ) rather than global giant Nittobo (3110.T) to secure upstream glass fabric including low Dk/1 and Dk/2. Figure 1. SYTECH – rev split by downstream applications in 2025E © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research, Company Reports Figure 2. SYTECH – anticipation of GM expansion on CCL segment to reach all-time high from 2027 © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research, Company Reports Shengyi Technology Valuation Our target price for SYTECH of Rmb60 is based on a 36x 26E PE, +1.5SD (ie mid point of peak PE range in the historical CCL upcycle) vs. its historical mean to reflect the CCL cycle turning up. We employ the same 36x PE for 2026 after the announcement of 1H25 preliminary results. In addition, 2026E PE is more relevant to reflect AI-CCL upcycle as the maiden full-year contribution. The implied 9x PB for 2026E is broadly in line +4SD in which we saw this level in the last peak in 2021. We believe this is justified based on our EPS CAGR of 42% over 2024-27E, following a ~24% decline in 2023. Our target PE is higher than the peer group average, which we believe is appropriate given: 1) SYTECH's strong track record of winning market share in the global CCL market (from 8% in 2007 to 13% in 2024); 2) SYTECH's technology edge as the first to enter Nvidia AI supply chain among China CCL players; 3) increasing premium for domestic component sourcing, underpinned by bans preventing dealing with US companies to source components. Risks Key downside risks to achieving our target price include: 1) worse-than-expected demand for AI-CCL order, 2) subdued China consumption, and 3) worse-than-expected capex on 5G/IoT products. Key upside risks to achieving our target price include: 1) secure of ASIC-based customers for CCL orders, 2) better-than-expected macro-economic conditions in China, 2) better-than- expected operating margin on higher rev growth due to high operating leverage, and 4) stronger-than-expected AI demand and consumption subsidy. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by "AC" in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple AC analysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than (a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solely with respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts or rating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report for which they are responsible: (极速AI材料月出货量从2Q25末的70-80万张增至3Q25的80-90万张 即运行率增长10-15% [1] * 公司大部分AI相关CCL业务是年内对英伟达GB200和GB300的出货 主要用于M8 PCB上的交换机 [1] * 江西和泰国的新工厂建设正在进行中 [1] * 平均售价保持坚挺 但除非非AI领域需求激增 否则近期可能不会上涨 [1] * 股价从近期高点回调10% 提供了更好的买入机会 [1] 订单与产能 * 3Q25订单势头良好 超过其全部产能 [3] * 管理层有更多空间将产品组合从非AI下游（如家电、智能手机、消费电子）升级为AI导向产品 [3] * 高速CCL（纯AI导向）月出货量在2025年底为70-80万张 [3] * 月运行率增长10-15%至80-90万张 占月总产能800万张以上的10%以上 [3] * 这一转变可能使公司在3Q25毛利率带来积极惊喜 [3] 产品与技术 * 大部分AI-CCL出货与英伟达GB200和GB300服务器相关 专用于M8 PCB上的交换机 [4] * GB300服务器的AI-CCL量目前远小于GB200 [4] * 不排除GB300 CCL产品出货从4Q初开始提升的可能性 [4] * 公司已交付用于Rubin服务器M9 PCB的CCL 正处于产品认证阶段 [4] * M9的基材是Q玻璃 而M6-M8使用低Dk/1和Dk/2 [4] * 管理层认为 与当前英伟达的主要外国竞争对手（如EMC、Doosan和Panasonic）相比 公司是英伟达CCL供应链的后来者 [4] * 但这并不意味着其产品质量或可靠性较低 因为公司主要致力于为英伟达开发更新产品 [4] * 管理层坚信 高质量产品、可靠服务和规模运营对于赢得大额订单至关重要 [4] 认证与客户 * 公司已向ASIC GPU供应商交付CCL样品进行测试 但成功认证没有时间表 [8] * 管理层认为中国公司通常需要更长时间获得认证 [8] 扩张与融资 * 江西工厂月产能150万张 将于4Q25投产 [9] * 泰国工厂月产能70万张 将于1Q26启动 [9] * 泰国工厂将主要专注于汽车、数据中心服务器和基板 [9] * 公司没有计划通过香港上市筹集资金 [10] * 公司现金流生成强劲 将通过内部现金流为泰国/江西工厂融资 [10] * 公司的全球品牌声誉足够 因此不需要在香港上市 [10] 供应链 * 公司认为上游供应合理 包括低Dk/2 [11] * 这与市场认为低Dk/2严重短缺的看法不同 [11] * 公司倾向于与中国 fabric 供应商（如飞利华300395.SZ）紧密合作 而非全球巨头Nittobo (3110.T) 以保障上游玻璃纤维供应 包括低Dk/1和Dk/2 [11] 估值与前景 * 目标价60元人民币 基于36倍2026年预期市盈率 [6][15] * 预期股价回报率21.2% 预期股息收益率1.7% 预期总回报23.0% [6] * 市值1202.49亿元人民币（168.47亿美元） [6] * 目标市盈率较历史均值+1.5个标准差（即历史CCL上行周期峰值PE范围的中点） [15] * 2026年预期市净率9倍 与+4个标准差基本一致 在2021年的上一个峰值曾见过该水平 [15] * 该估值合理基于2024-27年预期每股收益复合年增长率42% 此前2023年下降了约24% [15] * 目标市盈率高于同行平均水平 原因包括：1) 公司在全球CCL市场份额从2007年的8%提升至2024年的13% [15] 2) 作为中国CCL厂商中首个进入英伟达AI供应链的技术优势 [15] 3) 国内组件采购溢价增加 受禁止与美国公司交易采购组件的支撑 [15] 风险因素 * 下行风险包括：1) AI-CCL订单需求不及预期 [16] 2) 中国消费低迷 [16] 3) 5G/IoT产品资本支出不及预期 [16] * 上行风险包括：1) 获得基于ASIC的客户的CCL订单 [16] 2) 中国宏观经济状况好于预期 [16] 3) 由于高经营杠杆 收入增长带来运营利润率好于预期 [16] 4) AI需求和消费补贴强于预期 [16] 行业动态 * 花旗工业 | 中小盘 | 交通会议将于9月24-25日在香港文华东方酒店举行 有超过50家A/H股公司参与 [2] * 关于AI工业主题 建滔积层板、英维克、麦格米特已确认参会 [2] * 目前已有超过30家公司确认 [2]