USA | Chemicals Equity Research March 19, 2026 The Bullwhip: Two Scenarios For The Iran War Oil Shock Two of the most common investor scenarios--the short war with quick normalization and the extended conflict with a structural surge in energy costs-- imply very different bullwhip effects both in the near-term and into 2027-2028. Q1 earnings calls should give a sense for the degree to which companies are favoring one scenario, with implications for both volume and FCF conversion dynamics. An Extended Shock ...