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Greater China IT Services and Software_ Chart of the Day_ Sector Growth vs. Nominal GDP Growth
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 November 3, 2024 09:00 PM GMT M Update Greater China IT Services and Software | Asia Pacific Chart of the Day: Sector Growth vs. Nominal GDP Growth Key Takeaways 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 3Q24 revenue growth for A-share software & IT services names under our coverage (excl. iSoftStone due to M&A) deteriorated further to -6.3% YoY on average. Nominal GDP growth was stable at 4% YoY in 3Q24. Sector growth underperformed nominal GDP growth. 更多一手调研纪要和 ...
China Musings_ Policy waiting game
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 4 November 2024 | 12:08AM HKT | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
China Software_ Sep revenue growth slowed to 8.2% YoY; 3Q24 results remained soft
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 4 November 2024 | 9:13AM HKT 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 China Software: Sep revenue growth slowed to 8.2% YoY; 3Q24 results remained soft 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------- ...
China Yangtze Power (.SS)_ Maintain Neutral on Hydropower Utilization Cut Risk in 2025E and Excessive Valuations
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
Flash | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 03 Nov 2024 22:12:01 ET │ 11 pages China Yangtze Power (600900.SS) Maintain Neutral on Hydropower Utilization Cut Risk in 2025E and Excessive Valuations CITI'S TAKE While China Yangtze Power's ('CYP') 9M24 net profit (+30.2% yoy to Rmb28,025m) was better than expected mainly driven by utilization rise (+16.0% yoy to 3,285 hours) of its hydropower plants, we reiterate our cautious view and our market only Neutral rating as (i) the high hydropo ...
Metal Inventories in China China inventory trends during 5 weeks of stimulus_ China steel output fell last week, iron ore shipments & inventories increased. Aluminium inventory at seasonal lowest in 5 years
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Europe Equity Research 03 November 2024 J P M O R G A N Metal Inventories in China China inventory trends during 5 weeks of stimulus: China steel output fell last week, iron ore shipments & inventories increased. Aluminium inventory at seasonal lowest in 5 years 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
Sany Heavy (.SS)_ Virtual China Corporate Day Takeaways_ Market share gains ahead of expectations
China Securities· 2024-11-09 22:13
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 4 November 2024 | 10:41PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | | | Sany Heavy (600031.SS) Virtual China Corporate ...
China Machinery_ Forklifted by Electrification, Overseas Forays_ Initiate Hangcha at Buy, Heli at Neutral
China Securities· 2024-11-04 01:16
Here are the key points from the company and industry research: Hangcha Group: - Hangcha Group is a leading Chinese forklift manufacturer, ranking 2 in China and 8 globally in 2022. - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio covering 1-48t ICE and 0.75-48t electric forklifts, as well as AGVs. - Hangcha has been expanding its overseas sales network, with overseas revenue growing at a 28% 5-year CAGR from 2018-2023. Overseas sales now account for 42% of total revenue. - The company has focused on R&D for new energy forklifts, developing lithium-ion battery products in partnership with CATL. - Hangcha's revenue and net profit posted 11% and 19% CAGRs respectively from 2013-2023. - We model 11% and 13% revenue and net profit CAGRs for Hangcha in 2024-2026, driven by electrification, overseas expansion and intralogistics opportunities. Anhui Heli: - Anhui Heli is the 1 forklift manufacturer in China and 7 globally in 2022. - The company offers a wide range of 0.2-46t ICE and electric forklifts, intelligent logistics systems, and port equipment. - Heli has also been expanding its overseas footprint, with overseas revenue growing at a 28% 5-year CAGR from 2018-2023. Overseas sales now account for 36% of total revenue. - We model 11% and 12% revenue and net profit CAGRs for Heli in 2024-2026, driven by electrification, overseas markets and intralogistics transformation. - We rate Heli at Neutral with a TP of Rmb19, as the current valuation fairly reflects the company's earnings growth outlook. Industry Trends: - The global forklift market has grown at an 8% 10-year CAGR from 2013-2023, driven by manufacturing, logistics and e-commerce growth. - China accounts for 36% of global forklift sales, growing at a 14% 10-year CAGR. - Electrification is a key trend, with China's electric forklift penetration rising from 49% in 2018 to 68% in 2023. - Chinese forklift companies are expanding overseas, leveraging cost and product advantages from electrification. - Intralogistics and warehouse automation present a potentially doubling of the addressable market for traditional forklift players.
China Internet_ 2024 Singles Day Preview & Preliminary 1st Stage Performance Metrics
China Securities· 2024-11-04 01:16
纪要涉及的行业或者公司: 1. 电商平台行业,主要包括阿里巴巴(BABA)、京东(JD.com)、拼多多(PDD)、唯品会(VIPS)、抖音电商等 [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50] 2. 家电行业,包括海尔(Haier)、美的(Midea)、小米(Xiaomi)、格力(Gree)等 [9][15][17][41][74] 3. 手机及电子产品行业,包括苹果(Apple)、华为、vivo、小米等 [24][40][68] 4. 服装行业,包括波司登(Bosideng)、优衣库(Uniqlo)、安踏(Anta)等 [19][25][37][69] 5. 美妆行业,包括兰蔻(Lancome)、欧莱雅(L'oreal)、SK-II等 [20][25][68] 6. 体育户外行业,包括耐克(Nike)、FILA、李宁(Li Ning)等 [18][25][69] 7. 奢侈品行业,包括Hugo Boss、Max Mara、卡地亚(Cartier)等 [69] 8. 食品饮料行业,包括三只松鼠、蒙牛(Mengniu)、伊利(Yili)等 [69] 9. 母婴行业,包括帮宝适(Pampers)、Kangaroo Mommy等 [68] 10. 家居行业,包括创维(Skyworth)、苏泊尔(Supor)等 [24][41] 11. 玩具行业,包括乐高(LEGO)、泡泡玛特(Pop Mart)等 [68] 12. 跨境电商,包括DJI、Jellycat、SK-II等 [44][45] 13. 物流行业,包括菜鸟 [46] 核心观点和论据: 1. 电商平台方面: - 今年双11促销时间较往年提前,持续时间更长 [10][11][12] - 电商平台继续提供各种补贴和红包优惠吸引消费者 [13][14][22] - 消费者表现谨慎理性,但家电类商品销售较为亮眼 [1][9] - 预计主要电商平台不会披露实际GMV数据,但会强调会员数据和消费者钱包支出 [1][26][47][48] - 阿里巴巴和京东预计双11销售额同比增长3-6%和4-7% [2][3][47][48] - 拼多多双11销售额预计同比增长约20% [4] - 唯品会在家电类商品上加大力度,取得较好表现 [58][59][60] 2. 行业表现方面: - 家电类商品受益于政府补贴政策,销售表现较好 [9][15] - 服装、美妆、户外等品类也有不错的销售增长 [16][17][18][19][20] - 宠物用品、母婴等新兴品类销售也较为亮眼 [21] - 抖音电商在服装、美妆、户外等品类的市场份额较高 [69] - 快手在家电、服装等品类也取得较好成绩 [76][77][78][79] 其他重要内容: 1. 各电商平台在双11期间采取的具体促销策略: - 阿里巴巴加大会员权益、商家支持力度 [13][14][15] - 京东推出多重优惠政策,如补贴、红包等 [31][32][33][34][35][36][39][40] - 拼多多推出"百亿消费券"等大规模补贴计划 [51][52][53][54][55][56][57] - 唯品会在家电类商品上加大力度,提供政府补贴 [58][59][60] - 抖音电商和快手也出台了多项支持商家和消费者的措施 [61][62][63][64][70][71][72][73] 2. 各平台在双11期间的销售数据表现: - 阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、唯品会等主要电商平台在双11期间取得了不错的销售业绩 [16][26][27][39][40][47][48][58][59][60] - 抖音电商和快手在服装、美妆、家电等品类也取得了较好的销售表现 [65][67][76][77][78][79] [序号]
China Merchants Prop Operation (.SZ)_ 3Q in line; scale growth solid and OCF improved but GPM deteriorated; Neutral
China Securities· 2024-11-04 01:16
行业和公司概述: 1. 该电话会议纪要涉及中国物业服务公司中国海通实业集团(001914.SZ)。[1] 核心观点和论据: 1. 中国海通实业集团2024年第三季度收入和净利润同比分别增长11%和5%,与2024年前三季度同比增长12%和4%基本一致,符合预期。[1][2] 2. 第三季度毛利率下降4个百分点至9%,但通过优化销售费用率和降低有效税率得到弥补,2024年前三季度毛利率下降1.4个百分点至11%,与预期一致。[1][2] 3. 公司经营亮点包括: - 第三季度新签约合同同比增长12%,加快于上半年的持平水平;[3] - 管理面积净增56万平方米,相当于2024年全年预期增量,得益于母公司CMSK的交付和第三方项目的转化;[3] - 第三季度经营活动现金流转正341百万元,好于上一季度的255百万元流出和去年同期的102百万元流入,主要由于应收账款增速放缓和应付账款增加。[3] 4. 第三季度销售费用率和有效税率分别同比下降1个百分点和11个百分点,优于预期。[3] 其他重要内容: 1. 分析师维持中性评级,并将12个月目标价从10元下调至10.4元,基于2024年物业管理业务13倍市盈率和物业开发/投资资产40%折价的净资产估值。[8][13] 2. 主要风险包括:美元债券投资减值损失或转回、规模增长不及预期、增值服务执行不佳、政策变化和工资通胀等。[14]
Screen 2Q25_3_ Raising near term China outlook
China Securities· 2024-11-04 01:15
行业和公司概述: 1. 本文档涉及的是日本半导体行业中的上市公司Screen Holdings Co Ltd。[1] 核心观点和论据: 1. Screen 2Q25/3财报结果基本符合预期,收入同比增长23%至1,432亿日元,略低于预期2%。毛利率和营业利润率分别为38%和21.3%,优于预期。[1] 2. Screen 2H 25/3财年收入指引上调5.5%,略高于预期1.3%,但营业利润指引略低于预期1.7%,主要是由于推迟了一些低毛利产品的确认。[2] 3. Screen在2Q中国销售占比下降至40%,从上一季度的51%。2H中国销售占比预计上升至38%,全年预计仍将超过30%,但长期将逐步下降至25-30%。Screen在中国的业务集中于逻辑芯片,相对较少DRAM业务,因此受制裁风险较小。[3] 4. 尽管中国销售占比下降,Screen预计明年SPE业务的毛利率仍能维持在24%左右的水平,并有望进一步提升。[4] 5. Screen预计明年DRAM和NAND资本支出将增长15%,晶圆代工增长5%,逻辑芯片下降15%,整体WFE市场将实现低单位数增长,Screen有望实现双位数增长,超过行业平均水平。[5] 其他重要内容: 1. Screen当前S3-5产线已经达到了5,000亿日元的满产能,未来还有进一步优化的空间。[8] 2. 分析师维持Screen的"市场表现"评级,目标价9,700日元。[5]