报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [2] 报告的核心观点 - 2024Q2公司收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润同比分别增长19.04%、27.96%、32.53%,利润端表现超预期 [1] - 洞藏系列延续放量势能,带动产品结构升级,中高档白酒占比提升2.92pcts至77.35% [1] - 聚焦核心市场深耕,深化“双核工程”,网点量质齐升,省内收入同比增长22.88%,经销商数量和规模均有提升 [1] - 毛利率提升与费用率下降共振,2024Q2毛利率和归母净利率分别同比提升0.58和2.22pcts,销售和管理费用率分别同比下降1.99和0.60pcts [1] - 预计24 - 26年公司收入分别为82.3、100.1、118.0亿元,归母净利润分别为28.7、35.1、42.3亿元,对应PE为14.45X、11.79X、9.79X [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 业绩表现 - 2024Q2公司收入14.61亿元、归母净利润4.66亿元、扣非归母净利润4.64亿元,同比分别增长19.04%、27.96%、32.53% [1] 产品结构 - 2024Q2白酒业务收入13.82亿元,同比增长20.23%,中高档白酒收入10.69亿元,同比增长24.95%,普通白酒收入3.13亿元,同比增长6.50% [1] 市场与渠道 - 2024Q2省内收入9.16亿元,同比增长22.88%,省外收入4.65亿元,同比增长15.34%,省外占比降低1.43pcts [1] - 2024Q2批发代理销售收入13.01亿元,同比增长23.90%,直销(含团购)销售收入0.81亿元,同比下降18.44% [1] - 2024Q2经销商数量同比增加28家至1423家,平均经销商规模同比增长17.87%至97.09万元/家 [1] 财务指标 - 2024Q2毛利率同比提升0.58pcts至71.15%,归母净利率同比提升2.22pcts至31.88% [1] - 2024Q2销售费用率同比下降1.99pcts至10.00%,管理费用率同比下降0.60pcts至3.42% [1] - 合同负债同比下降8.58%至4.62亿元,上半年经营性现金流同比改善明显 [1] 财务预测 - 预计24 - 26年公司收入分别为82.3、100.1、118.0亿元,归母净利润分别为28.7、35.1、42.3亿元,对应PE为14.45X、11.79X、9.79X [2] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|5,505.30|6,720.09|8,228.64|10,014.95|11,803.04| |增长率(%)|20.29|22.07|22.45|21.71|17.85| |EBITDA(百万元)|2,499.53|3,251.16|3,993.66|4,846.39|5,791.93| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,705.13|2,287.81|2,866.40|3,513.56|4,233.14| |增长率(%)|23.38|34.17|25.29|22.58|20.48| |EPS(元/股)|2.13|2.86|3.58|4.39|5.29| |市盈率(P/E)|24.29|18.11|14.45|11.79|9.79| |市净率(P/B)|5.98|4.97|4.18|3.51|2.93| |市销率(P/S)|7.52|6.16|5.03|4.14|3.51| |EV/EBITDA|18.70|15.09|9.03|7.22|5.60| [3] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|1,708.33|2,292.82|2,866.40|3,513.56|4,233.14| |折旧摊销(百万元)|214.58|219.51|219.89|224.49|226.71| |财务费用(百万元)|0.00|0.00|1.10|0.85|0.85| |投资损失(百万元)|(75.77)|(73.86)|(73.86)|(73.86)|(73.86)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|624.32|(361.86)|(264.44)|(960.61)|131.56| |其它(百万元)|(631.49)|121.05|6.27|7.69|9.26| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|1,839.97|2,197.66|2,755.35|2,712.11|4,527.65| |资本支出(百万元)|430.34|542.84|129.22|101.52|78.72| |长期投资(百万元)|(5.00)|21.54|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|(1,192.47)|(811.59)|(181.11)|(128.26)|(85.34)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(767.13)|(247.21)|(51.89)|(26.74)|(6.62)| |债权融资(百万元)|1.52|33.73|(26.54)|(0.85)|(0.85)| |股权融资(百万元)|(922.15)|(1,040.00)|(1,305.87)|(1,600.70)|(1,928.52)| |其他(百万元)|196.22|149.50|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(724.41)|(856.77)|(1,332.41)|(1,601.55)|(1,929.37)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|348.43|1,093.67|1,371.06|1,083.82|2,591.67| [7] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|1,136.74|2,239.34|3,610.40|4,694.22|7,285.89| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|44.76|38.80|106.32|51.47|128.82| |预付账款(百万元)|7.06|12.21|9.60|14.74|14.52| |存货(百万元)|4,010.37|4,451.13|5,366.53|6,428.76|6,946.95| |其他(百万元)|2,571.61|2,280.73|2,120.51|2,205.44|2,166.82| |流动资产合计(百万元)|7,770.52|9,022.20|11,213.35|13,394.63|16,542.99| |长期股权投资(百万元)|0.00|21.54|21.54|21.54|21.54| |固定资产(百万元)|1,745.78|1,768.29|1,823.13|1,698.07|1,523.36| |在建工程(百万元)|175.00|408.79|267.27|275.91|311.84| |无形资产(百万元)|173.62|244.11|236.65|229.19|221.74| |其他(百万元)|195.32|223.83|201.85|193.97|200.42| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|2,289.71|2,666.55|2,550.44|2,418.68|2,278.90| |资产总计(百万元)|10,060.23|11,688.76|13,763.79|15,813.30|18,821.89| |短期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|900.52|804.82|1,268.39|1,173.78|1,589.47| |其他(百万元)|1,402.82|1,608.18|2,414.65|2,639.14|2,916.39| |流动负债合计(百万元)|2,303.34|2,413.00|3,683.04|3,812.92|4,505.86| |长期借款(百万元)|0.00|25.06|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|129.89|139.56|136.10|135.18|136.95| |负债合计(百万元)|3,094.16|3,310.91|3,819.14|3,948.10|4,642.81| |股本(百万元)|800.00|800.00|800.00|800.00|800.00| |少数股东权益(百万元)|37.38|41.34|44.76|48.96|54.01| |资本公积(百万元)|1,261.39|1,261.39|1,261.39|1,261.39|1,261.39| |留存收益(百万元)|4,867.31|6,275.12|7,838.50|9,754.86|12,063.68| |其他(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股东权益合计(百万元)|6,966.08|8,377.85|9,944.65|11,865.20|14,179.08| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|10,060.23|11,688.76|13,763.79|15,813.30|18,821.89| [8] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|5,505.30|6,720.09|8,228.64|10,014.95|11,803.04| |营业成本(百万元)|1,760.37|1,923.83|2,232.17|2,681.80|3,041.13| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|825.84|1,034.75|1,267.03|1,542.08|1,817.41| |销售费用(百万元)|504.67|581.48|687.33|826.52|962.29| |管理费用(百万元)|190.96|208.84|247.49|301.22|355.00| |研发费用(百万元)|61.18|77.35|94.72|115.28|135.86| |财务费用(百万元)|(1.43)|(8.41)|1.10|0.85|0.85| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(0.42)|0.75|0.00|0.00|0.00| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|1.64|1.85|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益(百万元)|75.77|73.86|73.86|73.86|73.86| |其他(百万元)|(193.80)|(188.40)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|2,280.51|3,014.20|3,772.68|4,621.06|5,564.37| |营业外收入(百万元)|2.12|4.32|4.32|4.32|4.32| |营业外支出(百万元)|33.28|19.37|19.37|19.37|19.37| |利润总额(百万元)|2,249.35|2,
迎驾贡酒:“强β价位带+强α”双重加成,利润端表现超预期