报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [2][5] 报告的核心观点 - 根据公司24H1业绩，扣非归母同比下降，毛利率同比降低，且24Q2业绩表现欠佳，下调盈利预测，预计24 - 26年归母分别为4.3/4.6/5.1亿元（原值分别为4.8/5.4/5.9亿），EPS分别为0.69/0.75/0.83元/股，PE分别为12/11/10X [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据 - 24Q2公司收入8.16亿，同比 - 0.51%，归母0.94亿，同比 - 5.37%；24H1收入16.51亿，同比 + 2.84%，归母1.80亿，同比 + 1.78%，扣非归母1.69亿，同比 - 0.47% [1] - 24H1分产品，彩印复合包装材料收入11.88亿（占比71.96%，同比 - 5.9pct），同比 - 4.95%；塑料软包装薄膜收入3.07亿（占比18.57%，同比 + 6.69pct），同比 + 60.77%；油墨业务收入0.71亿（占比4.32%，同比 - 0.19pct），同比 - 1.46% [1] - 24H1公司毛利率22.38%，同比 - 2.01pct；分产品，彩印包装材料毛利率22.5%，同比 - 4.4pct；塑料软包装薄膜毛利率14.7%，同比 + 13.4pct；油墨业务毛利率24.7%，同比 - 0.8pct；镀铝包装材料毛利率6.6%，同比 + 4.7pct [1] - 24H1公司销售费用0.31亿，同比 + 9.24%，销售费用率1.9%，同比 + 0.11pct；管理费用0.64亿，同比 - 6.07%，管理费用率3.89%，同比 - 0.37pct；财务费用202.16万，同比 + 65.06%，财务费用率0.12%，同比 + 0.04pct，财务费用增长主要系利息支出增加所致 [1] - 24H1公司归母净利率10.91%，同比 - 0.11pct [1] - 24H1公司经营现金流2.15亿，同比 + 155%，主要系供应链融资和票据贴现提前收款所致 [1] - 分地区，国内市场收入13.78亿，同比 + 3.64%；国际市场收入2.17亿，同比 + 5.13% [3] 财务预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|3,304.14|3,378.79|3,615.15|3,934.51|4,334.40| |增长率(%)|9.27|2.26|7.00|8.83|10.16| |EBITDA(百万元)|677.58|816.46|695.50|742.90|804.41| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|362.83|408.05|425.63|462.02|509.27| |增长率(%)|14.85|12.46|4.31|8.55|10.23| |EPS(元/股)|0.59|0.67|0.69|0.75|0.83| |市盈率(P/E)|13.76|12.23|11.73|10.80|9.80| |市净率(P/B)|2.19|2.03|1.99|1.91|1.84| |市销率(P/S)|1.51|1.48|1.38|1.27|1.15| |EV/EBITDA|6.23|5.20|5.67|5.57|4.71| [7] 资产负债表预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|900.05|1,177.92|1,168.14|915.13|1,191.24| |应收票据及应收账款|539.93|583.23|485.74|791.49|596.10| |预付账款|10.41|14.84|7.18|19.39|10.05| |存货|343.62|302.78|304.94|435.64|387.17| |其他|439.00|429.48|416.45|432.53|425.77| |流动资产合计|2,233.01|2,508.24|2,382.45|2,594.19|2,610.33| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|952.34|1,126.75|1,077.74|1,029.12|979.31| |在建工程|252.20|35.60|68.48|94.78|115.83| |无形资产|83.27|82.50|89.57|96.14|102.22| |其他|51.93|150.34|84.34|89.01|93.91| |非流动资产合计|1,339.74|1,395.19|1,320.12|1,309.06|1,291.26| |资产总计|3,572.75|3,903.43|3,702.58|3,903.25|3,901.59| |短期借款|465.91|528.11|356.00|316.89|253.73| |应付票据及应付账款|488.59|432.67|478.91|618.71|579.16| |其他|194.25|260.94|182.36|206.95|213.85| |流动负债合计|1,148.75|1,221.71|1,017.27|1,142.55|1,046.74| |长期借款|45.67|115.03|85.60|59.38|50.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|45.79|39.35|44.16|43.15|43.11| |非流动负债合计|91.45|154.38|129.76|102.53|93.11| |负债合计|1,247.95|1,398.74|1,147.03|1,245.08|1,139.85| |少数股东权益|46.09|47.18|48.47|49.90|51.55| |股本|612.49|612.49|612.49|612.49|612.49| |资本公积|510.78|512.67|512.67|512.67|512.67| |留存收益|1,166.81|1,329.86|1,406.47|1,494.26|1,596.11| |其他|(11.37)|2.49|(24.56)|(11.15)|(11.07)| |股东权益合计|2,324.80|2,504.69|2,555.54|2,658.17|2,761.74| |负债和股东权益总计|3,572.75|3,903.43|3,702.58|3,903.25|3,901.59| [8] 利润表预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|3,304.14|3,378.79|3,615.15|3,934.51|4,334.40| |营业成本|2,570.60|2,545.50|2,764.68|3,017.58|3,350.71| |营业税金及附加|22.02|29.65|24.67|27.26|31.63| |销售费用|56.40|57.58|59.65|64.53|56.35| |管理费用|132.66|128.57|119.30|125.90|130.03| |研发费用|134.98|145.00|150.03|162.50|177.71| |财务费用|0.41|9.87|5.53|4.33|0.59| |资产/信用减值损失|(21.10)|(35.77)|(20.28)|(21.80)|(24.74)| |公允价值变动收益|0.48|1.99|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|9.96|14.28|10.83|10.49|11.39| |其他|(7.67)|21.78|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |营业利润|405.39|460.35|481.83|521.10|574.03| |营业外收入|3.92|2.76|3.54|3.54|3.44| |营业外支出|1.58|2.11|1.70|1.51|1.73| |利润总额|407.73|461.00|483.66|523.12|575.74| |所得税|38.94|46.76|50.86|53.60|58.23| |净利润|368.79|414.24|432.81|469.52|517.51| |少数股东损益|5.96|6.20|7.18|7.50|8.24| |归属于母公司净利润|362.83|408.05|425.63|462.02|509.27| |每股收益（元）|0.59|0.67|0.69|0.75|0.83| [8] 现金流量表预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|368.79|414.24|425.63|462.02|509.27| |折旧摊销|126.38|150.31|169.06|175.74|182.69| |财务费用|(4.77)|0.52|5.53|4.33|0.59| |投资损失|(9.96)|(14.28)|(10.83)|(10.49)|(11.39)| |营运资金变动|101.18|(155.70)|182.37|(310.66)|216.62| |其它|(38.06)|120.25|7.18|7.50|8.24| |经营活动现金流|543.56|515.34|778.94|328.44|906.03| |资本支出|314.85|113.78|155.19|161.01|160.04| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(880.50)|(11.12)|(304.36)|(310.52)|(308.65)| |投资活动现金流|(565.64)|102.66|(149.17)|(149.51)|(148.61)| |债权融资|394.14|185.85|(257.58)|(65.06)|(67.37)| |股权融资|(100.45)|(321.12)|(381.96)|(366.90)|(413.93)| |其他|(171.96)|60.27|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|121.73|(75.00)|(639.54)|(431.95)|(481.30)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|99.64|543.01|(9.77)|(253.02)|276.12| [9] 主要财务比率预测 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率|9.27%|2.26%|7.00%|8.83%|10.16%| |营业利润增长率|13.67%|13.56%|4.67%|8.15%|10.16%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|14.85%|12.46%|4.31%|8.55%|10.23%| |