报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [3] 报告的核心观点 - 公司24H1营收83.86亿同比+10.45%，归母净利润22.39亿同比+22.88%，扣非净利润19.03亿同比+14.27%，经营韧性凸显 [1] - 盈利水平延续高位，投资收益增厚业绩，24Q2毛利率同比+0.4pct至43.6%，归母净利率同比+3.1pct至28.6% [1] - 积极推进智能生态、新能源、国际化三大战略，新能源业务快速丰富产品线，国际化在多区域完善团队配置 [1] - 持续看好公牛在民用电工领域的龙头地位以及入局新赛道的成长性，预计24 - 26年归母净利润44/48/55亿元，维持“买入”评级 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|14,081.37|15,694.76|17,232.09|19,176.09|21,706.73| |增长率(%)|13.70|11.46|9.80|11.28|13.20| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,460.96|5,491.68|5,352.41|5,710.17|6,495.31| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,188.62|3,870.14|4,435.62|4,783.38|5,472.24| |增长率(%)|14.68|21.37|14.61|7.84|14.40| |EPS(元/股)|2.47|2.99|3.43|3.70|4.23| |市盈率(P/E)|27.47|22.63|19.74|18.31|16.00| |市净率(P/B)|7.06|6.06|5.42|5.00|4.59| |市销率(P/S)|6.22|5.58|5.08|4.57|4.03| |EV/EBITDA|16.85|13.02|14.21|13.01|11.29| [2] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|4,611.97|4,743.71|9,626.97|11,091.00|12,038.11| |应收票据及应收账款|226.81|264.75|388.68|338.47|484.64| |预付账款|49.64|56.23|31.86|65.64|44.13| |存货|1,285.22|1,421.08|1,383.30|1,665.36|1,705.82| |其他|7,386.39|9,862.04|5,721.38|5,511.34|5,759.94| |流动资产合计|13,560.02|16,347.82|17,152.18|18,671.81|20,032.64| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|1,854.49|1,986.17|1,991.09|1,982.61|1,960.72| |在建工程|611.46|806.59|982.74|1,158.89|1,335.04| |无形资产|325.73|334.82|326.09|316.78|306.89| |其他|298.80|286.82|112.42|105.94|100.49| |非流动资产合计|3,090.48|3,414.39|3,412.34|3,564.23|3,703.15| |资产总计|16,650.50|19,762.21|20,564.53|22,236.04|23,735.79| |短期借款|845.37|588.34|680.40|510.30|382.73| |应付票据及应付账款|1,643.66|2,056.66|1,679.64|2,267.80|1,974.38| |其他|1,164.95|1,896.56|1,992.07|1,879.46|2,237.50| |流动负债合计|3,653.99|4,541.56|4,352.11|4,657.57|4,594.60| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|149.49|231.74|48.56|48.56|48.56| |非流动负债合计|149.49|231.74|48.56|48.56|48.56| |负债合计|4,235.13|5,301.79|4,400.67|4,706.13|4,643.16| |少数股东权益|16.50|14.49|13.43|11.92|10.12| |股本|601.08|891.54|1,292.48|1,292.48|1,292.48| |资本公积|3,863.55|3,760.75|3,760.75|3,760.75|3,760.75| |留存收益|8,059.46|9,945.95|11,214.10|12,581.67|14,146.18| |其他|(125.22)|(152.32)|(116.91)|(116.91)|(116.91)| |股东权益合计|12,415.36|14,460.41|16,163.86|17,529.91|19,092.62| |负债和股东权益总计|16,650.50|19,762.21|20,564.53|22,236.04|23,735.79| [6] 利润表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|14,081.37|15,694.76|17,232.09|19,176.09|21,706.73| |营业成本|8,730.08|8,914.18|9,615.02|10,642.19|11,981.50| |营业税金及附加|115.76|132.80|145.81|162.26|183.67| |销售费用|800.39|1,070.44|1,347.61|1,557.17|1,806.08| |管理费用|500.60|626.20|722.00|784.28|866.07| |研发费用|588.30|673.43|842.79|918.69|1,018.22| |财务费用|(107.99)|(108.51)|(119.14)|(132.58)|(150.08)| |信用减值损失|(41.97)|(123.72)|(90.00)|(80.00)|(80.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|18.20|10.00|11.13|12.60| |投资净收益|271.99|198.69|450.00|250.00|280.00| |其他|(589.83)|(434.25)|(253.98)|(270.00)|(280.00)| |营业利润|3,814.06|4,727.30|5,301.98|5,695.22|6,493.87| |营业外收入|3.78|2.77|5.00|20.00|30.00| |营业外支出|63.39|193.74|100.00|100.00|100.00| |利润总额|3,754.46|4,536.33|5,206.98|5,615.22|6,423.87| |所得税|569.00|672.01|771.36|831.84|951.63| |净利润|3,185.46|3,864.33|4,435.62|4,783.38|5,472.24| |少数股东损益|(3.16)|(5.81)|(3.69)|(5.30)|(6.28)| |归属于母公司净利润|3,188.62|3,870.14|4,435.62|4,783.38|5,472.24| |每股收益（元）|2.47|2.99|3.43|3.70|4.23| [6] 现金流量表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|3,185.46|3,864.33|4,435.62|4,783.38|5,472.24| |折旧摊销|250.92|269.21|283.54|297.53|311.52| |财务费用|(30.69)|(64.42)|(119.14)|(132.58)|(150.08)| |投资损失|(271.99)|(198.69)|(450.00)|(250.00)|(280.00)| |营运资金变动|421.31|1,153.52|(3,559.91)|529.99|(427.24)| |其它|(497.10)|(196.66)|6.31|5.82|6.31| |经营活动现金流|3,057.91|4,827.28|596.43|5,234.14|4,932.75| |资本支出|1,043.87|469.52|639.07|455.89|455.89| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(2,789.95)|(3,903.90)|6,208.79|(672.90)|(644.41)| |投资活动现金流|(1,746.08)|(3,434.38)|6,847.86|(217.00)|(188.52)| |债权融资|(212.18)|249.64|167.46|(141.08)|106.12| |股权融资|(2,086.23)|(2,603.21)|(2,728.49)|(3,412.03)|(3,903.24)| |其他|352.95|366.52|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(1,945.46)|(1,987.05)|(2,561.03)|(3,553.11)|(3,797.12)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(633.63)|(594.15)|4,883.25|1,464.03|947.12| [7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入增长率|13.70%|11.46%|9.80%|11.28%|13.20%| |净利润增长率|14.68%|21.37%|14.61%|7.84%|14.40%| |毛利率|38.00%|43.20%|44.20%|44.50%|44.80%| |净利率|22.64%|24.66%|25.74%|24.94%|25.21%| |ROE|25.72%|26.79%|27.46%|27.31%|28.68%| |ROIC|225.05%|270.43%|631.84%|102.79%|127.32%| |资产负债率|25