报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [2] 报告的核心观点 - 2024H1公司营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润同比增长，2024Q2营收、归母净利润同比下降但扣非归母净利润同比增长 [1] - 需求弱影响终端动销，火锅底料营收下降多，中式菜品调料稳健增长 [1] - 线上营收快速增长，中/北部营收下降较多，经销商数量净减且平均收入下降 [1] - 24Q2利润率提升、费用下降显著，净利率增幅小于毛利率或因投资净收益减少和研发费用率提升 [1] - 公司深化优商/扶商模式，收购食萃补足B端，区域新品丰富产品矩阵，下半年火锅底料需求有望复苏 [2] - 因消费复苏不及预期调低收入预期，但公司盈利能力仍存，预计24 - 26年营收和归母净利润增长 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|2,690.71|3,148.56|3,394.71|3,909.97|4,455.89| |增长率(%)|32.84|17.02|7.82|15.18|13.96| |EBITDA(百万元)|463.83|617.95|714.39|861.34|1,009.60| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|341.70|456.70|547.20|656.57|771.19| |增长率(%)|85.11|33.65|19.82|19.99|17.46| |EPS(元/股)|0.32|0.43|0.51|0.62|0.72| |市盈率(P/E)|31.70|23.72|19.80|16.50|14.05| |市净率(P/B)|2.69|2.50|2.20|1.96|1.72| |市销率(P/S)|4.03|3.44|3.19|2.77|2.43| |EV/EBITDA|38.41|17.82|10.90|8.38|6.91| [3] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|449.54|466.66|475.26|796.50|989.62| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|17.15|19.57|18.15|27.47|29.47| |预付账款(百万元)|23.70|12.89|21.55|24.70|24.59| |存货(百万元)|146.61|159.27|185.12|198.04|279.83| |流动资产合计(百万元)|3,153.44|3,394.31|3,427.93|3,893.21|4,226.89| |长期股权投资(百万元)|397.95|311.34|311.34|311.34|311.34| |固定资产(百万元)|727.03|1,042.18|1,222.65|1,501.66|1,817.44| |在建工程(百万元)|287.53|29.37|264.68|382.34|441.17| |无形资产(百万元)|45.83|49.71|44.46|39.21|33.96| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|1,668.29|1,879.38|2,320.65|2,709.44|3,070.06| |资产总计(百万元)|4,821.73|5,273.69|5,748.59|6,602.65|7,296.95| |短期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|185.28|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|390.33|551.00|206.65|638.94|376.54| |流动负债合计(百万元)|623.95|798.61|736.07|966.31|860.23| |长期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|12.93|5.71|12.12|10.25|9.36| |负债合计(百万元)|796.93|872.16|748.19|976.56|869.59| [6] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|2,690.71|3,148.56|3,394.71|3,909.97|4,455.89| |营业成本(百万元)|1,769.94|1,955.74|2,066.33|2,378.23|2,688.03| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|22.36|28.56|30.79|35.47|40.42| |销售费用(百万元)|387.94|483.95|526.18|598.23|668.38| |管理费用(百万元)|150.05|198.24|213.87|242.42|267.35| |研发费用(百万元)|31.97|31.78|37.34|43.01|44.56| |财务费用(百万元)|(18.20)|(11.56)|(12.08)|(16.31)|(22.90)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(1.48)|(2.01)|(1.69)|(1.72)|(1.81)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|0.00|0.00|50.00|80.00|70.00| |投资净收益(百万元)|54.30|70.03|54.02|59.45|61.17| |营业利润(百万元)|405.82|534.48|634.61|766.66|899.41| |营业外收入(百万元)|1.57|3.04|11.37|5.33|6.58| |营业外支出(百万元)|3.59|1.97|2.66|2.74|2.46| |利润总额(百万元)|403.80|535.54|643.32|769.25|903.53| |所得税(百万元)|63.19|70.03|85.56|100.00|117.46| |净利润(百万元)|340.61|465.51|557.76|669.24|786.07| |少数股东损益(百万元)|(1.09)|8.82|10.56|12.67|14.89| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|341.70|456.70|547.20|656.57|771.19| |每股收益（元）|0.32|0.43|0.51|0.62|0.72| [6] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|340.61|465.51|547.20|656.57|771.19| |折旧摊销(百万元)|48.33|65.35|89.46|108.58|130.64| |财务费用(百万元)|0.05|(0.02)|(12.08)|(16.31)|(22.90)| |投资损失(百万元)|(54.30)|(70.03)|(54.02)|(59.45)|(61.17)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|240.97|66.86|(315.01)|352.25|(168.79)| |其它(百万元)|(29.50)|74.96|60.56|92.67|84.89| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|546.14|602.63|316.12|1,134.32|733.86| |资本支出(百万元)|573.29|337.06|493.59|501.87|500.89| |长期投资(百万元)|215.92|(86.62)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|(1,875.00)|(586.24)|(1,039.58)|(1,102.42)|(1,079.72)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(1,085.79)|(335.80)|(545.98)|(600.55)|(578.83)| |债权融资(百万元)|18.08|11.56|197.36|(168.97)|22.90| |股权融资(百万元)|(330.65)|(330.30)|41.10|(43.56)|15.20| |其他(百万元)|256.92|74.04|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(55.66)|(244.70)|238.46|(212.53)|38.10| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(595.30)|22.13|8.60|321.24|193.13| [7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入增长率|32.84%|17.02%|7.82%|15.18%|13.96%| |营业利润增长率|114.66%|31.70%|18.74%|20.81%|17.32%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|85.11%|33.65%|19.82%|19.99%|17.46%| |毛利率|34.22%|37.88%|39.13%|39.18%|39.67%| |净利率|12.70%|14.50%|16.12%|16.79%|17.31%| |销售费用率|8.50%|10.55%|11.13%|11.88%|12.21%| |管理费用率|49.14%|52.53%|45.80%|34.85%|39.82%| |财务费用率|16.53%|16.54%|13.02%|14.79%|11.92%| |资产负债率|-11.17%|-10.60%|-5.80%|-14.16%|-15.40%| |流动比率|4.02|3.92|4.66|4.03|4.91| |速动比率|3.84|3.73|4.41|3.82|4.59| |应收账款周转率|174.78|171.51|180.00|171.43|156.52| |存货周转率|21.13|20.59|19.71|20.41|18.65| |总资产周转率|0.59|0.62|0.62|0.63|0.64| |每股收益|0.32|0.43|0.51|0.62|0.72| |每股经营现金流|0.51|0.57|0.30|1.07|0.69| |每股净资产|3.77|4.06|4.61|5.19|5.93| |市盈率|31.70|23.72|19.80|16.50|14.05| |市净率|2.69|2.50|2.20|1.96|1.72| |EV/EBITDA|38.41|17.82|10.90|8.38|6.91| |EV/EBIT|42.87|19.92|12.47|9.59|7.94| [8]