报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [4][6] 报告的核心观点 - 2024H1公司营收、归母净利、扣非归母净利分别为200.68/36.42/34.27亿元，同比-7.06%/+6.31%/+6.15%；2024Q2分别为99.18/20.44/19.14亿元，同比-8.89%/+3.55%/+1.87% [1] - 高基数、餐饮疲软、主动控库存致Q2销量承压，H1销量463万千升，同比-7.8% [2] - 需求和货折影响下，Q2吨收入负增长，H1吨收入同比+0.8%，Q2同比-0.9% [3] - Q2成本超预期下降带动盈利提升，净利率同比+2.7pct、扣非净利率同比+2.0pct [4] - 结合半年报及消费环境，下调24 - 26年收入和归母利润预测值，预计收入增速为-3%/2%/1%，归母净利润增速为7%/8%/7% [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|32,171.57|33,936.52|32,948.15|33,559.46|34,003.61| |增长率(%)|6.65|5.49|(2.91)|1.86|1.32| |EBITDA(百万元)|5,186.21|6,076.93|6,874.36|7,411.68|7,931.44| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,710.63|4,267.85|4,569.05|4,935.16|5,287.77| |增长率(%)|17.59|15.02|7.06|8.01|7.14| |EPS(元/股)|2.72|3.13|3.35|3.62|3.88| |市盈率(P/E)|21.86|19.00|17.75|16.43|15.34| |市净率(P/B)|3.18|2.95|2.81|2.70|2.60| |市销率(P/S)|2.52|2.39|2.46|2.42|2.39| |EV/EBITDA|24.02|12.80|8.34|7.36|6.91| [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|17,854.93|19,282.10|18,498.55|21,072.16|20,490.37| |应收票据及应收账款|124.10|100.39|121.09|106.37|125.99| |预付账款|281.87|210.98|253.31|213.37|253.83| |存货|4,152.19|3,539.83|3,262.46|3,683.43|3,378.84| |流动资产合计|32,002.48|29,611.93|29,613.05|32,243.31|32,033.02| |非流动资产合计|18,309.22|19,644.09|19,655.53|19,570.72|19,391.21| |资产总计|50,311.70|49,256.01|49,268.59|51,814.04|51,424.23| |流动负债合计|10,762.54|9,227.18|15,617.17|16,976.61|15,538.86| |非流动负债合计|4,367.60|4,082.78|4,000.00|3,900.00|3,860.00| |负债合计|24,039.39|21,001.26|19,617.17|20,876.61|19,398.86| |股东权益合计|26,272.31|28,254.75|29,651.42|30,937.43|32,025.37| |负债和股东权益总计|50,311.70|49,256.01|49,268.59|51,814.04|51,424.23| [9] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|32,171.57|33,936.52|32,948.15|33,559.46|34,003.61| |营业成本|20,317.93|20,816.89|19,435.12|19,535.32|19,557.03| |营业税金及附加|2,390.73|2,386.66|2,322.84|2,349.16|2,376.85| |销售费用|4,199.50|4,708.40|4,586.38|4,530.53|4,522.48| |管理费用|1,473.37|1,519.06|1,433.24|1,392.72|1,360.14| |研发费用|62.95|100.64|49.42|33.56|17.00| |财务费用|(420.81)|(457.12)|(481.15)|(505.56)|(532.72)| |营业利润|5,000.93|5,736.83|6,124.21|6,615.74|7,093.81| |利润总额|5,006.14|5,746.41|6,134.21|6,625.74|7,103.81| |所得税|1,201.42|1,398.21|1,481.41|1,600.12|1,719.12| |净利润|3,804.72|4,348.20|4,652.80|5,025.62|5,384.69| |少数股东损益|94.09|80.35|83.75|90.46|96.92| |归属于母公司净利润|3,710.63|4,267.85|4,569.05|4,935.16|5,287.77| |每股收益（元）|2.72|3.13|3.35|3.62|3.88| [9] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|3,804.72|4,348.20|4,569.05|4,935.16|5,287.77| |折旧摊销|1,077.41|1,128.06|1,167.30|1,238.50|1,306.34| |财务费用|(447.01)|(475.94)|(481.15)|(505.56)|(532.72)| |投资损失|(169.90)|(172.04)|(185.00)|(180.00)|(180.00)| |营运资金变动|1,483.33|(2,042.19)|(1,799.79)|1,437.10|(1,631.08)| |经营活动现金流|4,878.77|2,777.57|3,730.08|7,265.67|4,597.24| |投资活动现金流|(2,199.11)|(3,462.97)|(1,748.41)|(1,458.00)|(1,417.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(1,675.71)|(2,868.07)|(2,765.22)|(3,234.05)|(3,762.03)| |现金净增加额|1,003.95|(3,553.47)|(783.56)|2,573.61|(581.79)| [9] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力 - 营业收入|6.65%|5.49%|-2.91%|1.86%|1.32%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|12.26%|14.72%|6.75%|8.03%|7.23%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|17.59%|15.02%|7.06%|8.01%|7.14%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|36.85%|38.66%|41.01%|41.79%|42.49%| |获利能力 - 净利率|11.53%|12.58%|13.87%|14.71%|15.55%| |获利能力 - ROE|14.55%|15.55%|15.85%|16.41%|16.97%| |获利能力 - ROIC|83.42%|117.58%|132.29%|91.61%|142.10%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|47.78%|42.64%|39.82%|40.29%|37.72%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|-66.92%|-68.07%|-62.18%|-67.92%|-63.79%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|1.63|1.75|1.90|1.90|2.06| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|1.42|1.54|1.69|1.68|1.84| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|258.38|302.34|297.52|295.08|292.68| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|8.42|8.82|9.69|9.66|9.63| |营运能力 - 总资产周转率|0.66|0.68|0.67|0.66|0.66| |每股指标 - 每股收益|2.72|3.13|3.35|3.62|3.88| |每股指标 - 每股经营现金流|3.58|2.04|2.73|5.33|3.37| |每股指标 - 每股净资产|18.69|20.12|21.13|22.05|22.83| |估值比率 - 市盈率|21.86|19.00|17.75|16.43|15.34| |估值比率 - 市净率|3.18|2.95|2.81|2.70|2.60| |估值比率 - EV/EBITDA|24.02|12.80|8.34|7.36|6.91| |估值比率 - EV/EBIT|30.01|15.58|10.05|8.83|8.28| [9]