报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [1] 报告的核心观点 - 家联科技24Q2收入5.7亿元，同比+29.20%，归母净利润0.18亿元，同比 -31.36%，扣非净利润0.10亿元，同比 -23.57%；24H1收入10.7亿元，同比+38.97%，归母净利润0.62亿元，同比+36.87%，扣非净利润0.20亿元，同比 -10.80%，利润下滑主要系新建项目产能未完全释放、前期投入固定费用增加及可转债利息费用增加等 [1] - 外销修复，内销高增，客户粘性较高，24H1国际收入6.03亿，同比+34.19%，国内收入4.64亿，同比+45.71%，内销客户主要为国内知名茶饮品牌，公司坚持高质量产品和服务，为客户提供定制化解决方案，客户粘性高 [1] - 强化全球布局，产能项目稳步释放，公司将完成多个项目投资建设，提升产能，广西来宾项目、泰国生产基地、宁波岚山工厂项目均有进展 [1] - 净利率短期承压，规模效应有望显现，24Q2公司毛利率18.78%，同比+1.8pct，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为5.4%/6.4%/2.8%/2.4%，同比+0.1pct/+1.1pct/-0.2pct/+5.0pct，归母净利率3.23%，同比 -2.9pct，预计新项目规模效应释放后盈利能力回升 [1] - 根据24年中报调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年公司归母净利分别为1.5/1.8/2.3亿（前值分别为1.8/2.1/2.5亿），PE分别为17X/14X/12X，维持“增持”评级 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|1,976.02|1,721.16|2,240.61|2,720.32|3,059.28| |增长率(%)|60.08| -12.90|30.18|21.41|12.46| |EBITDA(百万元)|342.30|295.12|343.74|381.23|423.01| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|179.22|45.36|150.19|182.58|227.13| |增长率(%)|151.72| -74.69|231.14|21.57|24.40| |EPS(元/股)|0.93|0.24|0.78|0.95|1.18| |市盈率(P/E)|14.66|57.91|17.49|14.39|11.56| |市净率(P/B)|1.74|1.56|1.52|1.36|1.20| |市销率(P/S)|1.33|1.53|1.17|0.97|0.86| |EV/EBITDA|10.41|11.66|8.44|6.12|5.27| [2] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|754.63|946.62|1,120.30|1,360.16|1,529.64| |应收票据及应收账款|261.81|336.17|261.59|483.57|422.12| |预付账款|32.09|13.56|38.65|29.38|46.52| |存货|302.10|397.59|475.80|536.55|648.66| |其他|21.44|89.82|41.49|54.87|63.34| |流动资产合计|1,372.07|1,783.77|1,937.83|2,464.53|2,710.27| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|903.50|1,398.19|1,333.68|1,264.67|1,191.16| |在建工程|94.49|341.28|341.28|341.28|341.28| |无形资产|264.24|250.01|242.42|234.84|227.26| |其他|278.96|341.24|229.92|234.50|242.98| |非流动资产合计|1,541.18|2,330.71|2,147.30|2,075.29|2,002.68| |资产总计|2,913.25|4,114.47|4,085.13|4,539.81|4,712.95| |短期借款|184.39|113.86|322.54|152.64|189.95| |应付票据及应付账款|655.25|664.59|566.15|1,042.07|890.78| |其他|185.65|363.20|230.37|323.36|331.89| |流动负债合计|1,025.29|1,141.65|1,119.07|1,518.06|1,412.62| |长期借款|122.31|437.53|444.32|285.00|305.12| |应付债券|0.00|559.30|559.30|559.30|559.30| |其他|81.05|133.01|85.77|99.94|106.24| |非流动负债合计|203.36|1,129.83|1,089.39|944.24|970.65| |负债合计|1,235.23|2,276.35|2,208.46|2,462.30|2,383.27| |少数股东权益|167.47|149.72|149.72|149.72|149.72| |股本|120.00|192.00|192.00|192.00|192.00| |资本公积|976.48|904.48|904.48|904.48|904.48| |留存收益|416.85|426.21|576.39|758.98|986.10| |其他| -2.78|165.72|54.08|72.34|97.38| |股东权益合计|1,678.02|1,838.12|1,876.67|2,077.51|2,329.68| |负债和股东权益总计|2,913.25|4,114.47|4,085.13|4,539.81|4,712.95| [3] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|1,976.02|1,721.16|2,240.61|2,720.32|3,059.28| |营业成本|1,536.56|1,390.14|1,778.37|2,163.75|2,431.51| |营业税金及附加|8.04|12.21|11.20|13.87|14.68| |销售费用|98.14|92.50|99.93|120.78|131.55| |管理费用|92.65|109.74|104.64|126.50|141.03| |研发费用|63.57|56.49|71.70|87.05|91.78| |财务费用| -16.50|2.80|11.29|6.16| -2.04| |资产/信用减值损失| -18.82| -54.93| -11.03| -11.66| -8.96| |公允价值变动收益| -0.09|0.09|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|7.32| -0.25|2.35|3.14|1.75| |其他|17.38|90.96|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|187.77|21.42|154.79|193.69|243.54| |营业外收入|6.51|12.18|13.41|10.70|12.09| |营业外支出|1.84|3.02|1.73|2.20|2.32| |利润总额|192.44|30.58|166.47|202.19|253.32| |所得税|16.81|3.44|16.28|19.61|26.19| |净利润|175.64|27.14|150.19|182.58|227.13| |少数股东损益| -3.58| -18.22|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|179.22|45.36|150.19|182.58|227.13| |每股收益（元）|0.93|0.24|0.78|0.95|1.18| [3] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|175.64|27.14|150.19|182.58|227.13| |折旧摊销|106.23|151.87|162.09|166.59|171.09| |财务费用|12.64|14.99|11.29|6.16| -2.04| |投资损失| -7.32| -0.24| -2.35| -3.14| -1.75| |营运资金变动|335.75| -90.43| -93.86|286.49| -237.29| |其它|30.70|42.92|0.00|0.00|0.00| |经营活动现金流|653.65|146.25|227.36|638.68|157.14| |资本支出|817.78|763.43|137.24|75.83|83.70| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他| -1,304.15| -1,543.14| -224.88| -162.69| -171.96| |投资活动现金流| -486.37| -779.71| -87.65| -86.86| -88.25| |债权融资| -26.74|902.84|145.61| -330.22|75.55| |股权融资| -38.49|130.10| -111.64|18.26|25.04| |其他| -308.82| -92.84|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流| -374.05|940.10|33.97| -311.96|100.59| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额| -206.77|306.65|173.68|239.86|169.48| [4] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率|60.08%| -12.90%|30.18%|21.41%|12.46%| |营业利润增长率|227.55%| -88.59%|622.62%|25.13%|25.74%| |归属母公司净利润增长率|151.72%| -74.69%|231.14%|21.57%|24.40%| |毛利率|22.24%|19.23%|20.63%|20.46%|20.52%| |营业利润率|9.07%|2.64%|6.70%|6.71%|7.42%| |归母净利润率|11.86%|2.69%|8.70%|9.47%|10.42%| |ROE|19.64%|1.95%|8.01%|9.01%|13.24%| |资产负债率|42.40%|55.33%|54.06%|54.24%|50.57%| |净负债率| -