报告公司投资评级 - 买入（维持）[1] 报告的核心观点 - 公司发布3Q2024业绩预告，预计2024年前三季度营收124.0 - 127.2亿元，同比+43.50% - 47.21%；归母净利润26.0 - 27.3亿元，同比+57.04% - 64.89%；扣非净利润25.5 - 26.8亿元，同比+69.76% - 78.41%。3Q2024营收45.3 - 48.5亿元，同比+42.32% - 52.38%；归母净利润8.7 - 10.0亿元，同比+58.80% - 82.55%；扣非净利润8.4 - 9.7亿元，同比+64.77% - 90.18% [2] - 收入端动销反馈积极，库存持续下降，新品补水啦单月出货趋势强，预计2025年有望翻倍 [2] - 利润端成本改善及费效提升，盈利能力表现突出，预计三季度毛利率维持二季度水平，销售费用率同比持续改善 [2] - 持续超预期验证公司稀缺性，主业增长和二次曲线开拓打开长期增长天花板，预计2024 - 2026年营业收入161.1/211.1/269.1亿元，同比增长43.0%/31.0%/27.5%；归母净利润32.4/43.1/55.9亿元，同比增长58.6%/33.2%/29.7%；对应PE为34/25/20x，维持“买入”评级 [3] 相关目录总结 基本数据 - 2024年10月9日收盘价210.00元，流通股本5.20亿股，每股净资产17.66元，总股本5.20亿股 [1] 盈利预测 |年份|营业收入（百万元）|收入增长率（%）|归母净利润（百万元）|净利润增长率（%）|EPS（元）|PE|ROE（%）|PB| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2022A|8505|21.89|1441|20.75|3.60|49.40|28.44|14.05| |2023A|11263|32.42|2040|41.60|5.10|35.79|32.26|11.54| |2024E|16110|43.04|3236|58.64|6.22|33.75|37.69|12.72| |2025E|21106|31.01|4309|33.16|8.29|25.34|36.53|9.26| |2026E|26909|27.49|5588|29.68|10.75|19.54|34.53|6.75|[4] 公司财务报表及指标预测 利润表 |年份|营业收入|营业成本|营业税费|销售费用|管理费用|研发费用|财务费用|资产减值损失|公允价值变动收益|投资和汇兑收益|营业利润|营业外净收支|利润总额|所得税|净利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2022A|8505.39|4905.46|92.64|1449.28|255.52|43.75|41.04|0.00|12.79|70.02|1854.27|-18.26|1836.01|395.49|1440.52| |2023A|11262.79|6411.65|121.01|1955.67|368.59|54.39|2.29|0.00|29.37|141.56|2588.37|-9.10|2579.27|539.50|2039.77| |2024E|16109.84|8874.62|169.15|2690.34|462.35|72.49|-19.03|0.00|0.00|193.32|4124.42|-18.00|4106.42|870.56|3235.86| |2025E|21106.28|11549.80|215.28|3503.64|612.08|94.98|-23.89|0.00|0.00|253.28|5486.24|-18.00|5468.24|1159.27|4308.97| |2026E|26908.93|14643.06|274.47|4439.97|699.63|121.09|-53.38|0.00|0.00|322.91|7108.92|-17.95|7090.97|1503.29|5587.69|[5] 资产负债表 |年份|货币资金|交易性金融资产|应收账款|应收票据|预付账款|存货|其他流动资产|固定资产|在建工程|无形资产|其他非流动资产|资产总额|短期债务|应付账款|应付票据|其他流动负债|长期借款|其他非流动负债|负债总额|少数股东权益|股本|留存收益|股东权益| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2022A|2157.56|2037.16|24.75|0.00|127.12|394.22|834.27|2232.16|529.41|357.35|64.65|11869.96|3181.60|626.20|25.00|58.32|0.00|0.00|6805.36|0.00|400.01|2598.53|5064.60| |2023A|6057.69|1238.55|66.36|0.00|158.35|568.60|236.99|2916.22|385.05|484.84|102.78|14710.05|2995.71|884.36|31.00|160.06|220.00|0.00|8386.29|0.00|400.01|3838.29|6323.76| |2024E|6325.46|2538.55|94.61|0.00|219.18|787.02|536.99|3440.17|435.05|574.84|45.38|19145.04|2945.71|1224.08|42.91|210.06|300.00|0.00|10558.48|0.00|520.01|6090.53|8586.55| |2025E|7724.98|4038.55|123.75|0.00|285.25|1024.26|836.99|4129.12|485.05|714.84|45.38|24455.84|2895.71|1593.07|55.84|260.06|300.00|0.00|12660.31|0.00|520.01|9299.50|11795.53| |2026E|13502.45|4038.55|157.94|0.00|361.64|1298.58|1136.99|3879.68|535.05|714.84|45.38|31230.24|2845.71|2019.72|70.80|260.06|300.00|0.00|15047.02|0.00|520.01|13687.19|16183.22|[5] 现金流量表 |年份|净利润|折旧和摊销|资产减值准备|公允价值变动损失|财务费用|投资收益|少数股东损益|营运资金的变动|经营活动产生现金流量| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2022A|1440.52|239.32|0.36|-12.79|49.56|-70.02|0.00|521.07|2026.11| |2023A|2039.77|269.89|1.69|-29.37|57.72|-141.56|0.00|1117.58|3281.27| |2024E|3235.86|301.05|0.30|0.00|102.12|-193.32|0.00|1430.01|4802.85| |2025E|4308.97|336.05|0.30|0.00|102.62|-253.28|0.00|1509.20|6022.11| |2026E|5587.69|249.44|0.00|0.00|101.12|-322.91|0.00|1740.33|7371.69|[5] 财务指标 |年份|营业收入增长率|营业利润增长率|净利润增长率|EBITDA增长率|EBIT增长率|NOPLAT增长率|投资资本增长率|净资产增长率|毛利率|营业利润率|净利润率|EBITDA/营业收入|EBIT/营业收入|固定资产周转天数|流动营业资本周转天数|流动资产周转天数|应收账款周转天数|存货周转天数|总资产周转天数|投资资本周转天数|ROE|ROA|ROIC|销售费用率|管理费用率|财务费用率|三费/营业收入|资产负债率|负债权益比|流动比率|速动比率|利息保障倍数|DPS（元）|分红比率|股息收益率|EPS（元）|BVPS（元）|PE（X）|PB（X）|P/S|EV/EBITDA|PEG| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2022A|21.9%|21.3%|20.8%|30.6%|31.8%|31.2%|66.6%|19.5%|42.3%|21.8%|16.9%|24.1%|21.3%|88|13|214|1|27|416|283|28.4%|12.1%|17.0%|17.0%|3.0%|0.5%|20.5%|57.3%|134.4%|1.08|0.63|34.45|2.00|0.56|1.1%|3.60|12.66|49.4|14.1|8.4|35.2|2.4| |2023A|32.4%|39.6%|41.6%|30.9%|33.3%|34.4%|15.5%|24.9%|43.1%|23.0%|18.1%|23.9%|21.5%|82|-12|256|1|27|425|288|32.3%|13.9%|19.8%|17.4%|3.3%|0.0%|20.7%|57.0%|132.6%|1.09|0.92|30.21|2.50|0.49|1.4%|5.10|15.81|35.8|11.5|6.5|26.1|0.9| |2024E|43.0%|59.3%|58.6%|63.2%|68.9%|68.3%|23.9%|35.8%|44.9%|25.6%|20.1%|27.2%|25.4%|71|-40|234|2|27|378|242|37.7%|16.9%|26.9%|16.7%|2.9%|-0.1%|19.5%|55.1%|123.0%|1.21|0.89|40.02|2.00|0.31|1.0%|6.22|16.51|33.7|12.7|6.8|24.2|0.6| |2025E|31.0%|33.0%|33.2%|31.7%|33.2%|33.2%|26.4%|37.4%|45.3%|26.0%|20.4%|27.4%|25.8%|65|-14|245|2|28|372|231|36.5%|17.6%|28.3%|16.6%|2.9%|-0.1%|19.4%|51.8%|107.3%|1.36|0.98|53.05|2.00|0.26|1.0%|8.29|22.68|25.3|9.3|5.2|18.1|0.8| |2026E|27.5%|29.6%|29.