报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级，预期股价相对收益20%以上 [3][11] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年Q3公司营业收入达70亿元，同比+7.3%，环比-9.8%，归母净利润为5.48亿元，同比+40.8%，若Q2剔除掉消费税退税2.33亿的一次性影响，实际Q3环比+5.7%，业绩增长符合预期 [1] - 2024Q3公司毛利率为13.59%，同比+2.76pct，环比+2.1pct；净利率为7.66%，剔除掉Q2一次性影响实际环比+1pct，可能是公司降本提质增效显著，以及项目进展节奏原因 [1] - 2024年Q3陆地建造导管架8座（环比-8座）、组块17座（环比+13座），海上安装导管架7座（环比-6座）、组块14座（环比+11座），铺设海底管线138公里（环比+39公里），安装等海上作业投入2.03万船天，较去年同期1.97万船天增长3% [2] - 2024年Q3新签合同40亿元，同比-52%，环比-33%，其中国内合同36.89亿元，环比+157%，得益于国内海油增储上产；海外合同3.51亿元，环比-92% [3] - 维持2024/2025/2026年归母净利润为19.7/24.5/28.5亿元，当前股价对应PE分别12.3/9.9/8.5倍 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|29,358.37|30,752.04|32,921.04|35,597.24|35,700.04| |增长率(%)|48.31|4.75|7.05|8.13|0.29| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,040.23|4,519.36|4,118.54|4,724.13|5,213.61| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,457.41|1,620.51|1,972.84|2,452.12|2,849.10| |增长率(%)|294.11|11.19|21.74|24.29|16.19| |EPS(元/股)|0.33|0.37|0.45|0.55|0.64| |市盈率(P/E)|16.62|14.95|12.28|9.88|8.50| |市净率(P/B)|1.02|0.98|0.94|0.89|0.85| |市销率(P/S)|0.83|0.79|0.74|0.68|0.68| |EV/EBITDA|4.11|2.58|2.24|1.36|0.82| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本4,421.35百万股，流通A股股本4,421.35百万股，A股总市值24,229.02百万元，流通A股市值24,229.02百万元 [5] - 每股净资产5.86元，资产负债率41.59%，一年内最高/最低6.97/4.75 [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|2,123.01|4,320.81|6,571.24|10,245.30|11,947.09| |应收票据及应收账款|6,270.70|6,147.40|6,655.23|1,255.27|6,678.07| |预付账款|965.84|407.45|905.24|495.42|887.83| |存货|1,301.08|982.79|1,414.44|1,143.45|1,382.63| |其他|10,170.27|9,926.14|13,811.71|14,066.22|14,168.15| |流动资产合计|20,830.89|21,784.60|29,357.85|27,205.67|35,063.77| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|13,220.01|12,817.58|11,341.20|9,864.81|8,388.43| |在建工程|660.85|466.52|666.52|866.52|1,066.52| |无形资产|2,266.60|2,235.80|2,153.76|2,071.71|1,989.67| |其他|907.79|3,135.05|1,930.52|1,915.03|1,813.21| |非流动资产合计|17,055.24|18,654.95|16,092.00|14,718.07|13,257.83| |资产总计|42,638.67|43,251.66|45,449.85|41,923.74|48,321.60| |短期借款|329.75|0.00|300.00|1,300.00|900.00| |应付票据及应付账款|11,665.30|12,528.76|13,078.85|7,413.98|12,824.05| |其他|2,185.88|2,093.61|3,214.40|3,188.48|3,106.06| |流动负债合计|14,180.93|14,622.37|16,593.26|11,902.46|16,830.11| |长期借款|159.65|220.01|436.00|436.00|436.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|611.68|624.52|531.65|522.80|572.66| |非流动负债合计|771.33|844.53|967.65|958.80|1,008.66| |负债合计|16,956.09|16,473.31|17,560.90|12,861.26|17,838.77| |少数股东权益|1,979.59|1,983.76|1,984.84|1,985.83|1,986.98| |股本|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35| |资本公积|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02| |留存收益|14,849.44|16,026.70|17,013.12|18,239.18|19,663.73| |其他|184.17|98.52|221.61|168.10|162.74| |股东权益合计|25,682.58|26,778.35|27,888.95|29,062.48|30,482.82| |负债和股东权益总计|42,638.67|43,251.66|45,449.85|41,923.74|48,321.60| [7] 利润表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|29,358.37|30,752.04|32,921.04|35,597.24|35,700.04| |营业成本|26,719.27|27,446.26|28,808.56|30,739.24|30,357.04| |营业税金及附加|174.87|142.13|161.69|179.21|182.93| |销售费用|17.99|20.63|22.08|23.88|23.95| |管理费用|242.10|322.62|338.55|355.97|321.30| |研发费用|1,121.94|1,186.28|1,251.00|1,352.70|1,356.60| |财务费用|(87.75)|(56.71)|(46.30)|(39.57)|(46.72)| |资产/信用减值损失|(113.94)|(243.22)|(114.71)|(114.71)|(114.71)| |公允价值变动收益|11.73|113.51|24.00|22.50|0.00| |投资净收益|703.03|262.32|152.68|152.68|152.68| |其他|(1,143.81)|(344.96)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,712.95|1,903.17|2,447.42|3,046.28|3,542.91| |营业外收入|54.26|36.23|24.00|24.00|24.00| |营业外支出|4.82|27.46|2.67|2.67|2.67| |利润总额|1,762.38|1,911.94|2,468.75|3,067.62|3,564.24| |所得税|312.69|281.60|493.75|613.52|712.85| |净利润|1,449.69|1,630.34|1,975.00|2,454.09|2,851.40| |少数股东损益|(7.72)|9.83|2.17|1.98|2.30| |归属于母公司净利润|1,457.41|1,620.51|1,972.84|2,452.12|2,849.10| |每股收益（元）|0.33|0.37|0.45|0.55|0.64| [7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|48.31%|4.75%|7.05%|8.13%|0.29%| |营业利润|205.78%|11.10%|28.60%|24.47%|16.30%| |归属于母公司净利润|294.11%|11.19%|21.74%|24.29%|16.19%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|8.99%|10.75%|12.49%|13.65%|14.97%| |净利率|4.96%|5.27%|5.99%|6.89%|7.98%| |ROE|6.15%|6.54%|7.62%|9.06%|10.00%| |ROIC|9.80%|11.63%|18.83%|22.10%|30.22%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|39.77%|38.09%|38.64%|30.68%|36.92%| |净负债率|-5.20%|-15.11%|-20.92%|-29.28%|-34.81%| |流动比率|1.58|1.57|1.77|2.29|2.08| |速动比率|1.50|1.51|1.68|2.19|2.00| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|4.92|4.95|5.14|9.00|9.00| |存货周转率|23.94|26.93|27.47|27.83|28.27| |总资产周转率|0.76|0.72|0.74|0.81|0.79| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.33|0.37|0.45|0.55|0.64| |每股经营现金流|0.75|1.16|0.57|0.93|0.83| |每股净资产|5.36|5.61|5.86|6.12|6.45| |估值比率| | | | | | |市盈率|16.62|14.95|12.28|9.8