报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [1] 报告的核心观点 - 恒辉安防24Q3收入3.6亿同增41%，归母净利润0.5亿同增 -12%，扣非后归母净利润0.3亿同增 -2%；24Q1 - 3收入8.7亿同增25%，归母净利润0.9亿同增0.8%，扣非后归母净利润0.7亿同增2% [1] - 24Q1 - 3公司毛利率24.9%同增 -1.9pct，净利率11.6%同增约 -2.4pct [1] - 公司将依托现有优势，加大新产品研发投入，扩大品牌宣传，完善管理体系，开拓国内外市场，为产能释放做准备 [1] - 7200万打功能性安全防护手套新增产能定位中低端，初步判断需3 - 5年消化，国内外市场份额呈50%对50%布局 [1] - 公司超高分子量聚乙烯纤维产品前景可期，目前产能3000吨，规划建设4800吨，部分自用，部分外销 [1] - 基于24Q1 - 3业绩等因素，调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年EPS分别为0.8/1.1以及1.5元（原值1/1.3以及1.8元），PE分别为25X、19X以及14X，维持“买入”评级 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入（百万元）|893.12|976.96|1,235.85|1,553.46|2,021.06| |增长率（%）|(5.94)|9.39|26.50|25.70|30.10| |EBITDA（百万元）|205.11|231.55|224.33|284.81|350.47| |归属母公司净利润（百万元）|121.70|105.82|116.10|157.09|211.06| |增长率（%）|31.49|(13.05)|9.72|35.30|34.36| |EPS（元/股）|0.84|0.73|0.80|1.08|1.45| |市盈率（P/E）|24.07|27.68|25.23|18.65|13.88| |市净率（P/B）|2.84|2.63|2.41|2.18|1.93| |市销率（P/S）|3.28|3.00|2.37|1.89|1.45| |EV/EBITDA|12.79|14.01|12.73|10.48|8.54| [2] 资产负债表 |项目（百万元）|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|150.79|165.69|168.62|124.28|161.68| |应收票据及应收账款|173.31|227.61|139.16|321.87|332.62| |预付账款|11.80|13.55|5.25|22.39|13.82| |存货|214.49|304.33|70.81|344.68|228.79| |流动资产合计|580.40|802.77|418.36|848.35|777.47| |固定资产|600.67|699.45|736.88|771.70|797.22| |在建工程|178.08|219.27|261.34|306.66|350.66| |无形资产|113.12|108.57|132.08|152.21|166.33| |非流动资产合计|931.53|1,068.55|1,162.26|1,263.66|1,348.27| |资产总计|1,511.93|1,871.32|1,580.62|2,112.01|2,125.74| |短期借款|40.03|105.07|25.00|95.63|139.94| |应付票据及应付账款|237.66|317.06|170.64|474.70|269.73| |流动负债合计|330.04|472.36|242.38|624.28|466.75| |长期借款|32.00|151.40|25.00|35.07|36.47| |非流动负债合计|110.97|220.33|57.56|73.68|71.74| |负债合计|444.08|696.21|299.94|697.95|538.49| |少数股东权益|36.13|61.38|65.58|71.27|71.27| |股本|144.93|145.57|145.38|145.38|145.38| |资本公积|482.50|491.47|491.47|491.47|491.47| |留存收益|404.48|482.77|578.51|708.12|881.98| |股东权益合计|1,067.84|1,175.10|1,280.68|1,414.06|1,587.25| |负债和股东权益总计|1,511.93|1,871.32|1,580.62|2,112.01|2,125.74| [3] 利润表 |项目（百万元）|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|893.12|976.96|1,235.85|1,553.46|2,021.06| |营业成本|669.41|731.42|926.89|1,165.10|1,515.79| |营业税金及附加|9.91|9.86|9.15|11.96|19.00| |销售费用|18.95|30.85|24.72|46.60|60.63| |管理费用|48.16|45.54|55.61|69.91|90.95| |研发费用|47.43|49.83|37.08|69.75|85.49| |财务费用|(11.97)|0.88|0.62|(0.01)|0.81| |资产/信用减值损失|(2.43)|(5.90)|(3.32)|(4.70)|(3.82)| |公允价值变动收益|0.01|0.01|(43.95)|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|1.82|0.13|0.94|1.19|1.28| |营业利润|150.55|130.11|135.47|186.64|245.84| |营业外收入|0.35|0.03|6.39|4.11|3.62| |营业外支出|1.75|0.42|0.92|1.14|1.27| |利润总额|149.15|129.71|140.94|189.61|248.19| |所得税|23.37|18.77|19.73|25.64|37.13| |净利润|125.78|110.94|121.20|163.98|211.06| |少数股东损益|4.08|5.12|5.10|6.89|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|121.70|105.82|116.10|157.09|211.06| |每股收益（元）|0.84|0.73|0.80|1.08|1.45| [3] 现金流量表 |项目（百万元）|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|125.78|110.94|116.10|157.09|211.06| |折旧摊销|54.83|71.54|83.46|90.74|97.61| |财务费用|(4.62)|2.61|0.62|(0.01)|0.81| |投资损失|(1.82)|(0.13)|(0.94)|(1.19)|(1.28)| |营运资金变动|56.36|(124.27)|158.13|(158.38)|(97.85)| |经营活动现金流|190.72|103.69|318.53|95.15|210.35| |资本支出|333.59|216.52|222.84|184.96|184.59| |投资活动现金流|(175.48)|(260.01)|(97.64)|(189.82)|(179.97)| |债权融资|41.48|178.36|(202.34)|80.93|44.90| |股权融资|(21.60)|(38.50)|(15.63)|(30.59)|(37.88)| |筹资活动现金流|12.77|171.76|(217.97)|50.33|7.03| |现金净增加额|28.01|15.44|2.93|(44.34)|37.41| [4] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率|-5.94%|9.39%|26.50%|25.70%|30.10%| |营业利润增长率|55.76%|-13.58%|4.12%|37.78%|31.72%| |归属母公司净利润增长率|31.49%|-13.05%|9.72%|35.30%|34.36%| |毛利率|25.05%|25.13%|25.00%|25.00%|25.00%| |净利率|13.63%|10.83%|9.39%|10.11%|10.44%| |资产负债率|29.37%|37.20%|18.98%|33.05%|25.33%| |净负债率|-5.83%|8.69%|-8.00%|1.61%|1.96%| |流动比率|1.74|1.69|1.73|1.36|1.67| |速动比率|1.10|1.05|1.43|0.81|1.18| |应收账款周转率|5.29|4.87|6.74|6.74|6.18| |存货周转率|4.47|3.77|6.59|7.48|7.05| |总资产周转率|0.65|0.58|0.72|0.84|0.95| |每股收益（元）|0.84|0.73|0.80|1.08|1.45| |每股经营现金流（元）|1.31|0.71|2.19|0.65|1.45| |每股净资产（元）|7.10|7.66|8.36|9.24|10.43| |市盈率（P/E）|24.07|27.68|25.23|18.65|13.88| |市净率（P/B）|2.84|2.63|2.41|2.18|1.93| |EV/EBITDA|12.79|14.01|12.73|10.48|8.54| |EV/EBIT|17.43|20.22|20.28|15.39|11.84| [5]