报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2024Q1 - 3公司营收和净利润同比下降，单Q3营收和净利润也同比下降，盈利能力方面毛利率和净利率同比下降，销售和管理费用率同比下降，研发费用率同比提升 [3] - 三季度化妆品板块处于调整期，两大品牌Q3收入短暂承压但新品线增势良好，医药板块销售止跌回稳，原料及衍生产品、添加剂板块营收同比下降，前三季度部分透明质酸销量同比增长 [4] - 公司出售地产业务聚焦大健康，化妆品业务依托研发实力和原料业务深耕持续高质量发展，考虑业务调整和宏观消费环境，调整盈利预测并维持“买入”评级 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022A|2023A|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|12951.44|4578.75|4101.32|4596.23|5062.30| |收入同比(%)|4.76|-64.65|-10.43|12.07|10.14| |归母净利润(百万元)|45.46|303.39|288.95|349.13|419.47| |归母净利润同比(%)|-87.44|567.44|-4.76|20.83|20.15| |ROE(%)|1.22|7.56|6.96|7.94|8.94| |每股收益(元)|0.04|0.30|0.28|0.34|0.41| |市盈率(P/E)|157.44|23.59|24.77|20.50|17.06| [6] 基本数据 - 52周最高/最低价（元）：10.92 / 5.89 - A股流通股（百万股）：1016.57 - A股总股本（百万股）：1016.57 - 流通市值（百万元）：7044.82 - 总市值（百万元）：7044.82 [7] 财务预测表 资产负债表（单位:百万元） |项目|2022A|2023A|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |流动资产|55628.75|5984.40|7084.53|7624.44|8335.97| |现金|4317.97|1733.59|2795.66|3264.86|3909.99| |应收账款|351.27|454.98|360.84|388.63|401.26| |其他应收款|1598.41|3062.30|3068.25|3068.25|3068.25| |预付账款|1524.01|51.59|70.00|70.00|70.00| |存货|46047.01|525.44|550.00|577.50|664.13| |其他流动资产|1790.08|156.50|239.78|255.20|222.35| |非流动资产|2845.06|1833.43|1808.71|1725.27|1640.54| |长期投资|720.44|139.11|139.11|139.11|139.11| |固定资产|1279.31|1054.71|1043.91|996.81|931.55| |无形资产|196.50|148.70|158.70|168.70|178.70| |其他非流动资产|648.81|490.90|466.99|420.65|391.17| |资产总计|58473.81|7817.83|8893.24|9349.70|9976.51| |流动负债|50606.14|2401.75|3278.42|3409.83|3651.82| |短期借款|2270.19|705.22|448.18|448.18|448.18| |应付账款|7518.34|447.98|480.00|480.00|480.00| |其他流动负债|40817.61|1248.55|2350.24|2481.64|2723.64| |非流动负债|2300.78|735.93|736.59|739.81|741.02| |长期借款|2215.23|665.04|665.04|665.04|665.04| |其他非流动负债|85.54|70.89|71.55|74.77|75.98| |负债合计|52906.92|3137.69|4015.01|4149.64|4392.84| |少数股东权益|1850.19|665.37|727.29|802.10|891.99| |股本|1016.57|1016.57|1016.57|1016.57|1016.57| |资本公积|617.80|612.51|612.51|612.51|612.51| |留存收益|2082.01|2385.40|2521.86|2768.89|3062.61| |归属母公司股东权益|3716.71|4014.77|4150.94|4397.96|4691.68| |负债和股东权益|58473.81|7817.83|8893.24|9349.70|9976.51| [9] 利润表（单位:百万元） |项目|2022A|2023A|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|12951.44|4578.75|4101.32|4596.23|5062.30| |营业成本|9759.17|2450.21|1910.85|2104.37|2289.25| |营业税金及附加|539.39|36.42|41.01|45.96|50.62| |营业费用|1313.48|1446.47|1476.47|1645.45|1812.30| |管理费用|349.98|222.98|164.05|183.85|202.49| |研发费用|133.92|153.36|143.55|160.87|177.18| |财务费用|352.54|57.07|48.32|55.75|39.03| |资产减值损失|-268.33|-15.92|-10.00|-10.00|-10.00| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|116.21|214.34|131.17|137.18|145.29| |营业利润|310.85|419.45|441.26|528.92|628.35| |营业外收入|5.62|2.24|3.76|3.56|3.41| |营业外支出|55.41|8.73|32.24|33.72|32.52| |利润总额|261.06|412.96|412.78|498.75|599.24| |所得税|195.96|46.82|61.92|74.81|89.89| |净利润|65.10|366.14|350.86|423.94|509.35| |少数股东损益|19.64|62.75|61.92|74.81|89.89| |归属母公司净利润|45.46|303.39|288.95|349.13|419.47| |EBITDA|787.89|622.36|575.05|673.77|758.31| |EPS（元）|0.04|0.30|0.28|0.34|0.41| [9] 现金流量表（单位:百万元） |项目|2022A|2023A|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |经营活动现金流|998.10|474.15|673.58|440.37|476.05| |净利润|65.10|366.14|350.86|423.94|509.35| |折旧摊销|124.49|145.85|85.47|89.11|90.92| |财务费用|352.54|57.07|48.32|55.75|39.03| |投资损失|-116.21|-214.34|-131.17|-137.18|-145.29| |营运资金变动|184.69|34.60|330.57|-3.00|-28.94| |其他经营现金流|387.48|84.85|-10.47|11.76|10.97| |投资活动现金流|1.24|2673.26|55.61|119.92|128.43| |资本支出|166.11|211.37|0.00|0.00|0.00| |长期投资|91.06|-46.36|54.55|-1.12|-0.36| |其他投资现金流|258.41|2838.27|110.17|118.80|128.08| |筹资活动现金流|-1617.76|-3097.48|332.88|-91.09|40.65| |短期借款|-948.91|-1564.97|-257.04|0.00|0.00| |长期借款|-1535.60|-1550.19|0.00|0.00|0.00| |普通股增加|7.42|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |资本公积增加|1.42|-5.29|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他筹资现金流|857.91|22.98|589.93|-91.09|40.65| |现金净增加额|-608.61|48.93|1062.08|469.20|645.13| [9] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022A|2023A|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入(%)|4.76|-64.65|-10.43|12.07|10.14| |营业利润(%)|-54.13|34.94|5.20|19.86|18.80| |归属母公司净利润(%)|-87.44|567.44|-4.76|20.83|20.15| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率(%)|24.65|46.49|53.41|54.22|54.78| |净利率(%)|0.35|6.63|7.05|7.60|8.29| |ROE(%)|1.22|7.56|6.96|7.94|8.94| |ROIC(%)|0.64|8.54|9.14|11.12|12.85| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率(%)|90.48|40.14|45.15|44.38|44.03| |净负债比率(%)|14.58|69.12|68.66|68.42|68.56| |流动比率|1.10|2.49|2.16|2.24|2.28| |速动比率|0.18|2.27|1.99|2.07|2.10| |营运能力| | | | | | |总资产周转率|0.22|0.14|0.49|0.50|0.52| |应收账款周转率|35.10|9.78|8.70|10.54|11.04| |应付账款周转率|1.30|0.62|4.12|4.38|4.77| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益(最新摊薄)|0.04|0.30|0.28|0.34|0.41| |每股经营现金流(最新摊薄)|0.98|0.47|0.66|0.43|0.47| |每股净资产(最新摊薄)|3.66|3.95|4.08|4.33|4.62| |估值比率| | | | | | |P/E|157.44|23.5