报告公司投资评级 - 买入（维持）[3][5] 报告的核心观点 - 东方电气2024年前三季度营收增长、归母净利润下滑，Q3营收下滑但归母净利润增长，业绩符合预期 [3] - 公司毛利率触底反弹，随着高价煤电订单交付，收入和盈利能力有望回升，业绩将恢复增长 [3] - 费用率保持稳定，公允价值变动损益对业绩负面影响减弱，在手订单充沛支撑未来成长 [4] - 预计2024 - 2026年归母净利润分别为36.1/46.8/54.7亿元，同比增速1.8%/29.5%/16.9%，维持“买入”评级 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 基本数据 - 2024年11月1日收盘价15.35元，一年内最高/最低19.07/12.26元，总市值47,853.62百万元，流通市值36,276.72百万元，总股本3,117.50百万股，资产负债率69.34%，每股净资产12.34元 [2] 业绩情况 - 2024年前三季度营业收入470.25亿元，同比增长7.07%，归母净利润26.25亿元，同比下滑9.86% [3] - 24Q3营业收入140.97亿元，同比下滑3.28%，归母净利润9.33亿元，同比增长2.6% [3] 毛利率情况 - 24Q2毛利率仅12.65%，环比下滑6.04pct，上半年五大业务板块毛利率均同比下滑 [3] - 24Q3整体毛利率16.63%，同比下滑0.72pct，环比提高3.99pct，接近正常水平 [3] 费用率及损益情况 - 第三季度销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.36%/4.72%/4.50%/0.08%，同比变动-0.14/-0.67/+0.23/-0.16pct，合计下滑0.74pct [4] - Q1 - Q3总期间费用率10.69%，同比小幅下滑0.18pct [4] - 24H1非货币性资产交换损失1.81亿元，24Q3此部分股权价值增长，负面影响减弱 [4] 订单情况 - 前三季度生效订单812.5亿元，同比增长26.5% [4] - 其中清洁高效能源装备327.7亿元，同比下滑1.0%；可再生能源装备219.8亿元，同比增长18.2%；工程与贸易89.3亿元，同比下滑7.7%；现代制造服务业69.4亿元，同比下滑26%；新兴成长产业106.4亿元，同比增长1.1% [4] 盈利预测与估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入（百万元）|54,179.06|59,566.53|64,532.06|70,634.63|74,270.92| |同比增长率（%）|15.88%|9.94%|8.34%|9.46%|5.15%| |归母净利润（百万元）|2,854.65|3,550.39|3,612.56|4,679.80|5,471.37| |同比增长率（%）|24.71%|24.37%|1.75%|29.54%|16.91%| |每股收益（元/股）|0.92|1.14|1.16|1.50|1.76| |ROE（%）|8.16%|9.53%|9.17%|11.08%|12.02%| |市盈率（P/E）|16.76|13.48|13.25|10.23|8.75| [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表（百万元） |项目|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|17,129.25|16,895.72|22,112.19|25,677.68| |应收票据及账款|26,284.33|28,199.11|30,930.09|32,583.32| |预付账款|7,919.04|6,710.35|7,962.25|8,656.36| |其他应收款|412.07|630.10|613.70|628.09| |存货|18,136.58|22,339.65|22,801.53|23,614.70| |其他流动资产|5,808.06|5,921.26|5,670.57|6,096.45| |流动资产总计|75,689.33|80,696.19|90,090.34|97,256.61| |长期股权投资|1,783.08|2,103.77|2,424.46|2,745.15| |固定资产|5,380.17|5,434.23|5,554.84|5,738.19| |在建工程|789.08|1,560.72|980.36|300.00| |无形资产|1,847.81|1,756.64|1,741.40|1,795.69| |长期待摊费用|2.12|2.12|1.06|1.06| |其他非流动资产|35,616.79|35,872.38|35,855.62|35,856.63| |非流动资产合计|45,419.05|46,729.86|46,557.74|46,436.72| |资产总计|121,108.37|127,426.05|136,648.07|143,693.34| |短期借款|110.17|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及账款|33,198.35|31,717.92|35,742.34|37,697.51| |其他流动负债|37,940.58|43,763.70|46,308.63|48,231.22| |流动负债合计|71,249.09|75,481.62|82,050.97|85,928.73| |长期借款|1,613.41|1,360.75|984.95|611.74| |其他非流动负债|7,025.99|7,025.99|7,025.99|7,025.99| |非流动负债合计|8,639.40|8,386.74|8,010.94|7,637.73| |负债合计|79,888.50|83,868.36|90,061.91|93,566.46| |股本|3,118.53|3,117.49|3,117.49|3,117.49| |资本公积|11,566.01|11,567.05|11,567.05|11,567.05| |留存收益|22,560.36|24,727.89|27,535.77|30,818.60| |归属母公司权益|37,244.90|39,412.43|42,220.32|45,503.14| |少数股东权益|3,974.98|4,145.26|4,365.85|4,623.74| |股东权益合计|41,219.87|43,557.69|46,586.16|50,126.88| |负债和股东权益合计|121,108.37|127,426.05|136,648.07|143,693.34| [7] 利润表（百万元） |项目|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|59,566.53|64,532.06|70,634.63|74,270.92| |营业成本|49,253.17|52,809.03|57,043.97|59,484.01| |税金及附加|303.47|328.77|359.86|378.38| |销售费用|1,587.51|1,719.84|1,696.35|1,784.22| |管理费用|3,403.90|3,687.66|4,036.39|4,084.90| |研发费用|2,749.53|2,903.94|3,178.56|3,342.19| |财务费用|7.45|14.98|-11.38|-44.91| |资产减值损失|-495.92|-537.26|-588.06|-618.34| |信用减值损失|-175.68|-190.32|-208.32|-219.04| |其他经营损益|1,105.00|1,043.32|1,043.32|1,043.32| |投资收益|748.15|499.49|499.49|499.49| |公允价值变动损益|85.06|0.00|0.00|0.00| |资产处置收益|9.77|9.77|9.77|9.77| |其他收益|438.80|241.16|276.90|318.95| |营业利润|3,976.68|4,134.00|5,363.99|6,276.28| |营业外收入|71.41|71.41|71.41|71.41| |营业外支出|41.93|41.93|41.93|41.93| |其他非经营损益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |利润总额|4,006.16|4,163.48|5,393.47|6,305.76| |所得税|362.45|380.64|493.09|576.49| |净利润|3,643.71|3,782.85|4,900.39|5,729.27| |少数股东损益|93.32|170.28|220.59|257.90| |归属母公司股东净利润|3,550.39|3,612.56|4,679.80|5,471.37| |EPS(元)|1.14|1.16|1.50|1.76| [7] 现金流量表（百万元） |项目|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |税后经营利润|3,643.71|3,074.25|4,159.32|4,949.99| |折旧与摊销|876.11|922.13|964.05|1,011.70| |财务费用|7.45|14.98|-11.38|-44.91| |投资损失|-748.15|-499.49|-499.49|-499.49| |营运资金变动|-7,894.71|-677.93|1,731.87|643.58| |其他经营现金流|619.71|662.00|886.76|830.04| |经营性现金净流量|-3,495.88|3,495.94|7,231.13|6,890.92| |投资性现金净流量|6,054.99|-1,906.63|221.68|-808.58| |筹资性现金净流量|-497.10|-1,822.83|-2,236.34|-2,516.85| |现金流量净额|2,043.42|-233.53|5,216.47|3,565.49| [7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力| | | | | |营收增长率|9.94%|8.34%|9.46%|5.15%| |营业利润增长率|19.75%|3.96%|29.75%|17.01%| |归母净利润增长率|24.37%|1.75%|29.54%|16.91%| |经营现金流增长率|-141.57%|200.00%|106.84%|-4.70%| |盈利能力| | | | | |毛利率|17.31%|18.17%|19.24%|19.91%| |净利率|6.12%|5.86%|6.94%|7.71%| |ROE|9.53%|9.17%|11.08%|12.02%| |ROA|2.93%|2.84%|3.42%|3.81%| |ROIC|40.84%|25.67%|26.82%|33.13%| |估值倍数| | | | | |P/E