报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），目标价格80.52元 [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2024Q3公司营业收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润分别为46.41、6.31、4.56亿元，同比下降44.82%、73.03%、81.41%，Q3业绩低于预期，中高端和宴席市场承压 [1] - 利润率受结构和费用影响，合同负债环比提升，24Q3毛利率、净利率同比变动 -8.63、-14.38个百分点至66.24%、13.52%，销售费用持续增加，经营性现金流同比 -65.31%至14.15亿元，合同负债同比/环比 -9.98%/+26.11%至49.66亿元 [2] - 因需求偏弱，公司仍有较大压力，但结合市场实际调整经营节奏，强化宴席等渠道，重视开瓶开箱及库存指标，坚持深耕大本营，目前身处调整期，收入或利润短期承压，调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年收入分别为296、290、304亿元，同增 -11%、-2%、5%；归母净利润分别为82、83、87亿元，同增 -18%、1%、6%，对应PE分别为15X、15X、14X [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|30,104.90|33,126.28|29,565.18|28,999.86|30,429.97| |增长率(%)|18.76|10.04|(10.75)|(1.91)|4.93| |EBITDA(百万元)|12,803.82|13,425.07|10,647.45|10,586.93|11,078.28| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|9,377.83|10,015.93|8,214.90|8,276.29|8,735.51| |增长率(%)|24.91|6.80|(17.98)|0.75|5.55| |EPS(元/股)|6.23|6.65|5.45|5.49|5.80| |市盈率(P/E)|12.93|12.11|14.77|14.66|13.89| |市净率(P/B)|2.56|2.34|2.17|2.02|1.88| |市销率(P/S)|4.03|3.66|4.10|4.18|3.99| |EV/EBITDA|15.75|9.45|6.81|6.82|5.85| [4] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|24,375.45|25,812.79|35,308.84|36,186.86|43,969.71| |应收票据及应收账款|571.15|530.01|700.99|419.78|731.74| |预付账款|11.02|50.97|18.13|21.27|26.26| |存货|17,729.26|18,954.24|19,557.33|17,243.88|21,442.31| |其他|8,825.30|7,186.74|6,541.17|6,514.09|6,115.17| |流动资产合计|51,512.17|52,534.74|62,126.45|60,385.89|72,285.18| |长期股权投资|32.98|1,229.84|1,229.84|1,229.84|1,229.84| |固定资产|5,794.77|5,305.63|5,434.19|5,201.46|4,785.57| |在建工程|757.15|1,457.32|778.66|439.33|269.66| |无形资产|1,714.38|1,773.12|1,713.07|1,653.02|1,592.97| |其他|8,152.79|7,491.65|8,380.82|8,001.71|7,953.23| |非流动资产合计|16,452.07|17,257.55|17,536.57|16,525.35|15,831.28| |资产总计|67,964.25|69,792.29|79,663.03|76,911.24|88,116.46| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|1,376.21|1,425.87|1,683.21|1,257.49|1,800.27| |其他|4,810.54|4,645.16|21,306.61|14,842.40|21,116.07| |流动负债合计|6,186.75|6,071.03|22,989.83|16,099.89|22,916.34| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|511.50|566.63|554.06|544.06|554.92| |非流动负债合计|511.50|566.63|554.06|544.06|554.92| |负债合计|20,439.80|17,742.42|23,543.88|16,643.95|23,471.26| |少数股东权益|49.50|111.35|113.33|115.33|117.44| |股本|1,506.99|1,506.45|1,506.45|1,506.45|1,506.45| |资本公积|904.65|930.52|930.52|930.52|930.52| |留存收益|45,117.61|49,499.52|53,606.97|57,745.12|62,112.87| |其他|(54.30)|2.02|(38.13)|(30.14)|(22.08)| |股东权益合计|47,524.45|52,049.86|56,119.14|60,267.28|64,645.20| |负债和股东权益总计|67,964.25|69,792.29|79,663.03|76,911.24|88,116.46| [8] 利润表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|30,104.90|33,126.28|29,565.18|28,999.86|30,429.97| |营业成本|7,645.53|8,200.25|8,222.71|8,074.16|8,462.21| |营业税金及附加|4,388.31|5,269.25|4,730.43|4,639.98|4,868.80| |销售费用|4,179.14|5,386.95|5,026.08|4,842.98|5,081.81| |管理费用|1,935.67|1,764.42|1,574.75|1,544.64|1,521.50| |研发费用|253.57|284.75|254.14|249.28|261.58| |财务费用|(636.47)|(754.53)|(932.10)|(1,090.31)|(1,222.39)| |资产/信用减值损失|(3.08)|(1.95)|0.14|(1.63)|(1.14)| |公允价值变动收益|(318.33)|(37.08)|(351.22)|(200.00)|(300.00)| |投资净收益|425.87|255.52|527.33|402.91|395.25| |其他|(274.53)|(483.88)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|12,509.21|13,242.57|10,865.43|10,940.41|11,550.58| |营业外收入|25.59|39.18|28.49|31.09|32.92| |营业外支出|31.51|63.91|52.88|49.43|55.41| |利润总额|12,503.28|13,217.83|10,841.05|10,922.06|11,528.09| |所得税|3,113.89|3,197.06|2,622.18|2,641.78|2,788.36| |净利润|9,389.40|10,020.77|8,218.87|8,280.29|8,739.73| |少数股东损益|11.57|4.84|3.97|4.00|4.22| |归属于母公司净利润|9,377.83|10,015.93|8,214.90|8,276.29|8,735.51| |每股收益（元）|6.23|6.65|5.45|5.49|5.80| [8] 现金流量表（百万元） |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|9,389.40|10,020.77|8,214.90|8,276.29|8,735.51| |折旧摊销|741.74|702.42|710.14|732.11|745.59| |财务费用|1.03|2.62|(932.10)|(1,090.31)|(1,222.39)| |投资损失|(425.87)|(255.52)|(527.33)|(402.91)|(395.25)| |营运资金变动|(7,886.21)|(4,578.76)|4,490.49|(4,102.23)|2,459.33| |其它|1,827.54|238.70|(347.25)|(196.00)|(295.78)| |经营活动现金流|3,647.62|6,130.22|11,608.85|3,216.96|10,027.02| |资本支出|595.24|2,109.88|112.57|110.00|89.15| |长期投资|0.24|1,196.86|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|3,421.03|(2,645.70)|1,017.20|592.91|806.11| |投资活动现金流|4,016.50|661.03|1,129.77|702.91|895.25| |债权融资|651.71|755.92|907.02|1,090.31|1,222.39| |股权融资|(5,503.86)|(6,938.38)|(4,149.59)|(4,132.15)|(4,361.81)| |其他|360.38|574.12|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(4,491.78)|(5,608.34)|(3,242.57)|(3,041.84)|(3,139.43)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|3,172.35|1,182.92|9,496.05|878.02|7,782.84| [7] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入增长率|18