报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），给予公司24年2.5倍PB，对应目标价10.25元 [4][6] 报告的核心观点 - 公司三季度归母净利润0.01亿元，同比下降98.72%；前三季度收入17.24亿元，同比-27.79%，归母净利润/扣非归母净利润为-0.19/-0.37亿元，同比转亏 [1] - 24Q3功能性建筑涂料/建筑节能材料/防水材料收入同比-32.8%/-25.0%/+40.3%，涂料板块承压，防水板块亮眼；工程/家装涂料/保温装饰板销量同比-35%/-14%/-13%，防水卷材/涂料销量同比+66%/+65%；工程/家装涂料价格同比-5.0%/-11.4%，防水卷材/涂料均价同比-17.3%/-6.1%；1-9月全国竣工面积同比下滑24.4%，短期需求承压，中长期有望受益于上海城中村改造等需求放量 [2] - 前三季度整体毛利率23.15%，同比-9.29pct，Q3单季度23.20%，同比/环比-6.75/-1.23pct；前三季度期间费用率25.60%，同比+2.57pct；最终净利率-1.08%，同比-4.47pct；Q3计提2285万元信用减值损失，单季度净利率0.08%，同比/环比-4.55/-8.29pct；24Q3末资产负债率74.94%，同比-0.35pct；前三季度经营性现金流净额-2.21亿元，同比-2.86亿元，收现比同比-6.40pct达88.54%，付现比同比+11.4pct达112.02% [3] - 行业集中度低，公司有望依托渠道变革与风险防控提升市占率；下调公司24 - 26年归母净利润为0.5/1.4/1.8亿元（前值1.5/2.6/3.1亿元） [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|3,107.70|3,110.39|2,778.74|2,874.28|3,265.06| |增长率(%)|(34.09)|0.09|(10.66)|3.44|13.60| |EBITDA(百万元)|497.89|558.11|287.31|406.04|435.39| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|105.73|60.18|48.86|143.98|181.86| |增长率(%)|(119.44)|(43.09)|(18.81)|194.71|26.31| |EPS(元/股)|0.25|0.14|0.11|0.34|0.42| |市盈率(P/E)|30.04|52.78|65.01|22.06|17.46| |市净率(P/B)|1.84|1.83|1.81|1.70|1.59| |市销率(P/S)|1.02|1.02|1.14|1.10|0.97| |EV/EBITDA|11.67|7.62|14.01|10.47|9.27| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本428.60百万股，流通A股股本428.60百万股，A股总市值3,175.90百万元，流通A股市值3,175.90百万元，每股净资产3.86元，资产负债率74.94%，一年内最高/最低10.40/4.75元 [6] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|298.18|469.00|833.62|862.28|979.52| |应收票据及应收账款|2,117.55|1,806.57|1,280.92|954.63|1,222.08| |预付账款|36.12|35.56|12.29|46.50|20.43| |存货|217.58|203.28|132.52|213.93|178.86| |其他|244.13|224.65|191.99|169.23|188.48| |流动资产合计|2,913.55|2,739.05|2,451.34|2,246.57|2,589.36| |长期股权投资|0.68|0.69|0.69|0.69|0.69| |固定资产|1,447.72|1,775.92|2,006.38|2,150.60|2,094.75| |在建工程|724.82|443.24|565.95|459.57|447.65| |无形资产|529.66|455.87|448.33|440.80|433.26| |其他|955.16|976.75|953.57|957.07|960.12| |非流动资产合计|3,658.05|3,652.48|3,974.92|4,008.72|3,936.48| |资产总计|6,583.26|6,405.16|6,426.26|6,255.29|6,525.84| |短期借款|1,198.54|1,076.58|1,598.88|1,752.81|1,850.92| |应付票据及应付账款|1,622.67|1,952.93|1,293.17|785.52|785.61| |其他|1,137.08|884.82|815.19|847.53|1,105.72| |流动负债合计|3,958.29|3,914.33|3,707.24|3,385.86|3,742.25| |长期借款|576.87|543.48|729.04|790.01|581.28| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|251.38|156.03|232.39|213.27|200.56| |非流动负债合计|828.26|699.51|961.43|1,003.28|781.84| |负债合计|4,857.70|4,665.82|4,668.67|4,389.14|4,524.09| |少数股东权益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|431.74|430.03|428.60|428.60|428.60| |资本公积|751.16|727.65|719.72|719.72|719.72| |留存收益|384.81|412.65|451.52|556.29|690.66| |其他|157.85|169.02|157.75|161.54|162.77| |股东权益合计|1,725.56|1,739.34|1,757.59|1,866.15|2,001.74| |负债和股东权益总计|6,583.26|6,405.16|6,426.26|6,255.29|6,525.84| [10] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|3,107.70|3,110.39|2,778.74|2,874.28|3,265.06| |营业成本|2,100.88|2,161.21|2,014.82|2,078.69|2,356.69| |营业税金及附加|35.01|33.89|30.28|31.32|35.58| |销售费用|458.01|352.94|389.02|330.54|408.13| |管理费用|156.53|151.64|138.94|129.34|130.60| |研发费用|98.14|94.63|77.80|71.86|76.73| |财务费用|96.56|110.91|83.36|71.86|65.30| |资产/信用减值损失|(139.49)|(218.04)|(115.56)|(34.31)|(23.27)| |公允价值变动收益|14.30|0.72|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|3.38|(0.39)|(0.50)|(0.50)|(0.50)| |其他|177.28|378.67|(122.47)|(33.00)|(33.00)| |营业利润|107.09|44.22|50.92|158.86|201.26| |营业外收入|1.06|5.76|5.15|5.33|6.05| |营业外支出|4.88|1.46|0.56|0.57|0.65| |利润总额|103.27|48.52|55.52|163.62|206.66| |所得税|(2.46)|(11.65)|6.66|19.63|24.80| |净利润|105.73|60.18|48.86|143.98|181.86| |少数股东损益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|105.73|60.18|48.86|143.98|181.86| |每股收益（元）|0.25|0.14|0.11|0.34|0.42| [10] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|-34.09%|0.09%|-10.66%|3.44%|13.60%| |营业利润|-115.32%|-58.71%|15.17%|211.97%|26.69%| |归属于母公司净利润|-119.44%|-43.09%|-18.81%|194.71%|26.31%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|32.40%|30.52%|27.49%|27.68%|27.82%| |净利率|3.40%|1.93%|1.76%|5.01%|5.57%| |ROE|6.13%|3.46%|2.78%|7.72%|9.09%| |ROIC|15.57%|7.51%|5.02%|7.79%|7.97%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|73.79%|72.84%|72.65%|70.17%|69.33%| |净负债率|103.72%|91.36%|102.55%|108.96%|90.87%| |流动比率|0.73|0.69|0.66|0.66|0.69| |速动比率|0.67|0.64|0.63|0.60|0.64| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|1.38|1.59|1.80|2.57|3.00| |存货周转率|12.26|14.78|16.55|16.59|16.63| |总资产周转率|0.45|0.48|0.43|0.45|0.51| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.25|0.14|0.11|0.34|0.42| |每股经营现金流|0.76|1.02|0.94|0.18|1.00| |每股净资产|4.03|4.06|4.10|4.35|4.67| |估值比率| | | | | | |市盈率|30.04|52.78|65.01|22.06|17.46| |市净率|1.84|1.83|1.81|1.70|1.59| |EV/EBITDA|11.67|7.62|14.01|10.47|9.27| |EV/EBIT|14.48|10.07|30.28|17.99|15.51| [10] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025