报告公司投资评级 - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2024年前三季度营收217.60亿元同比增12.81%，归母净利润50.93亿元同比降6.31%；单三季度营收67.01亿元同比增19.97%，归母净利润10.55亿元同比增14.69% [1] - 新机组投产带动发电量增长，单三季度同比高增38%，风电、太阳能、水电、独立储能发电量均有增长 [2] - 盈利能力向好，单三季度毛利率48.5%同比提高1.89pct，净利率21.10%同比提高1.51pct [3] - 公司在手项目充足，新能源装机有望快速提升，考虑前三季度业绩及电量情况，下调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 [4] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|23,812.18|26,485.47|31,724.24|36,598.92|41,691.53| |增长率(%)|53.78|11.23|19.78|15.37|13.91| |EBITDA(百万元)|22,063.37|22,792.25|27,771.69|31,908.63|36,053.10| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|7,155.48|7,181.09|7,248.76|8,191.45|9,140.60| |增长率(%)|26.82|0.36|0.94|13.00|11.59| |EPS(元/股)|0.25|0.25|0.25|0.29|0.32| |市盈率(P/E)|19.12|19.05|18.87|16.70|14.97| |市净率(P/B)|1.78|1.66|1.57|1.47|1.38| |市销率(P/S)|5.75|5.17|4.31|3.74|3.28| |EV/EBITDA|11.91|11.41|10.42|10.37|9.41| [4] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|10,565.51|5,099.67|2,537.94|2,927.91|3,335.32| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|27,007.30|36,717.96|36,087.09|43,838.50|42,576.05| |预付账款(百万元)|3,359.46|3,810.30|5,843.18|6,562.19|8,987.25| |存货(百万元)|222.20|352.94|216.96|494.66|368.82| |其他(百万元)|1,649.26|1,492.31|2,181.68|1,677.33|2,271.04| |流动资产合计(百万元)|42,803.73|47,473.19|46,866.85|55,500.60|57,538.47| |长期股权投资(百万元)|16,480.51|17,399.60|17,899.60|18,399.60|18,899.60| |固定资产(百万元)|136,734.60|160,375.41|189,381.15|219,672.91|249,736.28| |在建工程(百万元)|35,491.27|52,988.23|61,792.94|67,075.76|70,245.46| |无形资产(百万元)|4,970.49|5,396.57|5,567.37|5,716.86|5,845.05| |其他(百万元)|25,646.58|28,074.56|27,598.82|27,123.09|26,647.35| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|219,323.44|264,234.37|302,239.88|337,988.22|371,373.74| |资产总计(百万元)|262,127.16|311,707.56|349,106.72|393,488.81|428,912.21| |短期借款(百万元)|4,339.73|591.51|13,224.09|47,174.43|56,204.62| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|24,916.38|26,465.23|38,510.06|40,423.47|53,620.06| |其他(百万元)|17,830.23|19,464.68|24,970.16|19,908.64|26,855.39| |流动负债合计(百万元)|47,086.35|46,521.42|76,704.31|107,506.55|136,680.07| |长期借款(百万元)|99,456.43|133,670.43|135,016.29|141,510.45|139,850.49| |应付债券(百万元)|6,634.78|5,082.02|5,082.02|5,082.02|5,082.02| |其他(百万元)|20,921.79|30,729.34|30,779.34|30,829.34|30,879.34| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|127,013.01|169,481.79|170,877.66|177,421.82|175,811.85| |负债合计(百万元)|174,167.87|216,222.62|247,581.97|284,928.37|312,491.92| [7] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|23,812.18|26,485.47|31,724.24|36,598.92|41,691.53| |营业成本(百万元)|9,906.20|11,885.24|14,653.04|17,365.72|20,196.29| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|170.44|200.29|246.20|284.03|323.56| |销售费用(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |管理费用(百万元)|1,391.30|1,940.07|2,220.70|2,561.92|2,918.41| |研发费用(百万元)|14.33|17.23|20.64|23.81|27.13| |财务费用(百万元)|3,986.79|3,954.82|4,439.85|4,996.49|5,705.34| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(761.02)|(552.71)|(943.19)|(943.19)|(862.13)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|35.51|9.40|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益(百万元)|1,347.24|715.06|500.00|600.00|600.00| |其他(百万元)|(1,495.57)|(674.87)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |营业利润(百万元)|9,216.95|8,990.94|9,700.62|11,023.75|12,258.68| |营业外收入(百万元)|85.11|140.48|140.48|122.02|134.32| |营业外支出(百万元)|232.79|113.83|113.83|153.48|127.05| |利润总额(百万元)|9,069.26|9,017.59|9,727.27|10,992.29|12,265.96| |所得税(百万元)|686.36|747.64|778.18|879.38|981.28| |净利润(百万元)|8,382.90|8,269.95|8,949.09|10,112.90|11,284.69| |少数股东损益(百万元)|1,227.43|1,088.87|1,700.33|1,921.45|2,144.09| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|7,155.48|7,181.09|7,248.76|8,191.45|9,140.60| |每股收益（元）|0.25|0.25|0.25|0.29|0.32| [7] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|8,382.90|8,269.95|7,248.76|8,191.45|9,140.60| |折旧摊销(百万元)|7,877.13|9,629.03|12,444.84|14,702.00|17,064.82| |财务费用(百万元)|4,065.19|4,024.43|4,439.85|4,996.49|5,705.34| |投资损失(百万元)|(1,347.24)|(715.06)|(500.00)|(600.00)|(600.00)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|(4,980.24)|2,740.91|15,351.25|(11,416.14)|18,488.61| |其它(百万元)|2,873.16|(9,532.04)|1,700.33|1,921.45|2,144.09| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|16,870.90|14,417.23|40,685.02|17,795.25|51,943.46| |资本支出(百万元)|38,459.53|42,332.91|50,376.08|50,376.08|50,376.08| |长期投资(百万元)|2,278.82|919.09|500.00|500.00|500.00| |其他(百万元)|(70,528.81)|(84,257.34)|(100,852.16)|(100,752.16)|(100,752.16)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(29,790.47)|(41,005.34)|(49,976.08)|(49,876.08)|(49,876.08)| |债权融资(百万元)|24,690.26|24,733.53|9,638.61|35,548.01|1,764.88| |股权融资(百万元)|(1,857.98)|(1,753.61)|(2,909.28)|(3,077.21)|(3,424.85)| |其他(百万元)|(12,559.00)|(1,991.76)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|10,273.28|20,988.17|6,729.33|32,470.80|(1,659.97)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(2,646.28)|(5,599.94)|(2,561.73)|389.97|407.41| [8] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入增长率|53.78%|11.23%|19.78%|15.37%|13.91%| |营业利润增长率|35.86%|-2.45%|7.89%|13.64