报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [2][5] 报告的核心观点 - 24Q1 - 3业绩营收130.63亿元同比+0.26%，归母净利13.32亿元同比 - 0.9%，扣非净利13.06亿元同比 - 1.61%；24Q3业绩营收42.02亿元同比 - 7.11%，归母净利4.31亿元同比 - 10.1%，扣非净利润4.18亿元同比 - 11.6% [1] - Q1 - 3销量265.7万千升同比+0.2%，啤酒吨价同比 - 0.6%；Q3销量同比 - 5.6%、啤酒吨价同比 - 2.5% [1] - 分档次看Q3高档/主流/经济收入同比 - 9%/-8%/+20%，8元以上占比同比 - 0.9pct，餐饮、夜场持续承压，Q1 - 3高档/主流/经济收入同比1.24%/+0.03%/+14.84% [1] - 分区域看西北区/中区/南区收入Q3同比 - 10%/-5%/-9%，Q1 - 3同比 - 2.5%/-0.004%/+1.1% [1] - Q3净利率 - 0.7pct，毛利率 - 1.4pct，吨成本同比+1.1%，销售费率同比 - 0.9pct，管理费率+1.0pct；Q1 - 3净利率 - 0.4pct，毛利率基本持平、吨成本持平，销售/管理费率同比+0.2/+0.3pct [2] - 公司今年积极推动非现饮渠道建设，1664等产品在非现饮表现亮眼、罐化率得以提升，现饮缺口逐步触底，体现在疆外乌苏、1664 [2] - 下调24 - 26年收入&归母利润预测值，预计24 - 26年公司收入增速分别为0.2%/3.3%/3.9%，归母净利润增速分别为 - 2.0%/7.5%/6.1%，对应PE分别为24X/22X/21X [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|14,039.04|14,814.84|14,844.47|15,334.44|15,936.45| |增长率(%)|7.01|5.53|0.20|3.30|3.93| |EBITDA(百万元)|3,927.10|3,941.21|3,995.48|4,259.69|4,506.17| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,263.60|1,336.60|1,310.44|1,408.07|1,494.48| |增长率(%)|8.35|5.78|(1.96)|7.45|6.14| |EPS(元/股)|2.61|2.76|2.71|2.91|3.09| |市盈率(P/E)|24.96|23.59|24.06|22.40|21.10| |市净率(P/B)|15.34|14.73|14.29|14.29|14.29| |市销率(P/S)|2.25|2.13|2.12|2.06|1.98| |EV/EBITDA|15.00|7.53|7.33|6.73|6.28| [4] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|3,397.88|2,712.72|2,545.93|3,150.34|3,477.27| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|65.51|64.63|67.32|68.98|72.67| |预付账款(百万元)|43.19|41.83|42.12|42.03|42.84| |存货(百万元)|2,166.48|2,100.35|2,139.21|2,176.40|2,201.17| |其他(百万元)|130.98|545.07|550.25|567.85|568.92| |流动资产合计(百万元)|5,804.04|5,464.61|5,344.84|6,005.61|6,362.87| |长期股权投资(百万元)|296.60|140.61|180.61|225.61|275.61| |固定资产(百万元)|3,680.69|3,673.99|4,447.99|4,216.99|3,995.98| |在建工程(百万元)|395.30|783.50|383.50|433.50|483.50| |无形资产(百万元)|685.17|677.05|614.23|551.41|488.59| |其他(百万元)|1,635.75|1,647.15|1,609.19|1,574.19|1,587.53| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|6,693.51|6,922.31|7,235.53|7,001.70|6,831.21| |资产总计(百万元)|12,497.54|12,386.91|12,580.36|13,007.31|13,194.09| |短期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|2,497.67|2,607.63|2,513.43|2,751.62|2,698.01| |其他(百万元)|4,199.51|3,907.32|5,720.55|5,899.53|6,130.30| |流动负债合计(百万元)|6,697.18|6,514.95|8,233.98|8,651.15|8,828.31| |长期借款(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|563.30|553.02|560.00|570.00|580.00| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|563.30|553.02|560.00|570.00|580.00| |负债合计(百万元)|8,874.52|8,734.76|8,793.98|9,221.15|9,408.31| |少数股东权益(百万元)|1,566.87|1,511.95|1,579.06|1,579.06|1,579.06| |股本(百万元)|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97| |资本公积(百万元)|7.73|16.02|16.02|16.02|16.02| |留存收益(百万元)|1,578.00|1,656.29|1,721.81|1,721.81|1,721.81| |其他(百万元)|(13.54)|(16.09)|(14.49)|(14.71)|(15.09)| |股东权益合计(百万元)|3,623.02|3,652.15|3,786.38|3,786.16|3,785.78| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|12,497.54|12,386.91|12,580.36|13,007.31|13,194.09| [7] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|14,039.04|14,814.84|14,844.47|15,334.44|15,936.45| |营业成本(百万元)|6,952.43|7,533.98|7,555.67|7,768.11|8,040.44| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|920.86|957.55|962.47|989.07|1,027.90| |销售费用(百万元)|2,326.22|2,532.62|2,536.22|2,599.19|2,669.36| |管理费用(百万元)|534.57|494.67|529.34|490.70|502.00| |研发费用(百万元)|110.75|26.23|28.91|23.00|23.90| |财务费用(百万元)|(56.10)|(60.31)|(61.37)|(66.47)|(77.34)| |信用减值损失(百万元)|(78.93)|(102.54)|(86.00)|(82.00)|(82.00)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|0.00|0.20|2.80|4.50|2.50| |投资净收益(百万元)|67.95|66.58|67.00|67.00|67.00| |其他(百万元)|(37.66)|13.07|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|3,298.97|3,352.79|3,277.02|3,520.34|3,737.69| |营业外收入(百万元)|7.15|28.77|28.00|28.00|28.00| |营业外支出(百万元)|7.34|5.88|9.39|7.53|7.60| |利润总额(百万元)|3,298.78|3,375.69|3,295.64|3,540.81|3,758.09| |所得税(百万元)|711.88|664.12|642.92|690.46|732.83| |净利润(百万元)|2,586.90|2,711.57|2,652.71|2,850.35|3,025.26| |少数股东损益(百万元)|1,323.29|1,374.97|1,342.27|1,442.28|1,530.78| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|1,263.60|1,336.60|1,310.44|1,408.07|1,494.48| |每股收益(元)|2.61|2.76|2.71|2.91|3.09| [7] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|2,586.90|2,711.57|1,310.44|1,408.07|1,494.48| |折旧摊销(百万元)|472.80|477.58|608.82|643.82|683.82| |财务费用(百万元)|3.70|5.92|(61.37)|(66.47)|(77.34)| |投资损失(百万元)|(67.95)|(66.58)|(67.00)|(67.00)|(67.00)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|262.48|(412.52)|15.34|360.30|91.00| |其它(百万元)|494.72|380.97|1,345.07|1,446.78|1,533.28| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|3,752.65|3,096.95|3,151.30|3,725.50|3,658.24| |资本支出(百万元)|766.84|705.26|913.02|390.00|440.00| |长期投资(百万元)|56.28|(155.99)|40.00|45.00|50.00| |其他(百万元)|(1,211.20)|(1,600.24)|(1,811.62)|(777.00)|(878.00)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(388.09)|(1,050.98)|(858.60)|(342.00)|(388.00)| |债权融资(百万元)|57.79|78.69|58.98|71.47|82.34| |股权融资(百万元)|(1,252.38)|(1,349.37)|(2,518.48)|(2,850.57)|(3,025.65)| |其他(百万元)|(938.90)|(1,472.03)|0.00|0.00