报告公司投资评级 - 行业6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [1] - 基于24Q1 - 3业绩表现等因素，调整盈利预测后维持“增持”评级 [3] 报告的核心观点 - 公司将AI技术作为发展核心动力，升级生产力系统，构建智能平台，“AI设计工厂”优势显著，在多场景展现潜力和价值 [1] - “以旧换新”政策落地，政企双重补贴驱动惠民焕新举措，为家居消费市场注入动力，公司推出套餐并开展直播活动响应政策 [1] - 公司深化国内渠道布局，开拓空白和低线城市市场，推动门店落地，探索新合作伙伴；启动海外招商，拓展海外加盟店业务版图 [1] - 基于24Q1 - 3业绩表现、地产情况及公司布局等，调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年EPS分别为 - 0.6元、0.2元以及0.3元（原值为0.1/0.3以及0.5元），25 - 26年PE分别为57、40X [3] 各部分总结 业绩情况 - 24Q3公司收入10亿，同减29%；归母净利 - 0.08亿同减112%，扣非后归母净利 - 0.15亿同减125% [1] - 24Q1 - 3公司收入27亿同减22%，归母净利 - 1.14亿同减2905%，扣非后归母 - 1.34亿同减539% [1] - 24Q1 - 3公司毛利率31.93%同减2.6pct；净利率 - 4.18%同减4.30pct [1] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|5,314.34|4,899.83|4,256.48|4,548.90|4,965.58| |增长率(%)|(27.30)|(7.80)|(13.13)|6.87|9.16| |EBITDA(百万元)|494.86|531.16|227.81|388.76|423.84| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|46.30|64.85|(127.59)|53.73|77.26| |增长率(%)|(48.39)|40.06|(296.76)|(142.11)|43.79| |EPS(元/股)|0.21|0.29|(0.57)|0.24|0.34| |市盈率(P/E)|66.63|47.57|-|57.41|39.93| |市净率(P/B)|0.86|0.85|0.89|0.89|0.89| |市销率(P/S)|0.58|0.63|0.72|0.68|0.62| |EV/EBITDA|5.20|4.48|9.20|4.67|4.73| [4] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|1,568.91|2,990.67|1,354.87|2,399.62|1,906.47| |应收票据及应收账款|203.75|188.97|88.51|243.24|118.04| |预付账款|33.06|38.24|20.94|42.67|27.78| |存货|883.03|776.60|551.23|951.39|677.44| |其他|947.12|429.48|441.88|479.95|451.26| |流动资产合计|3,635.87|4,423.96|2,457.43|4,116.87|3,181.00| |长期股权投资|6.99|4.70|4.70|4.70|4.70| |固定资产|2,022.41|1,959.52|1,990.06|2,011.13|2,018.29| |在建工程|263.78|301.33|369.89|407.29|448.15| |无形资产|1,538.15|1,486.88|1,411.91|1,336.93|1,261.95| |其他|701.42|607.71|816.02|661.60|670.88| |非流动资产合计|4,532.74|4,360.15|4,592.58|4,421.65|4,403.97| |资产总计|8,181.27|8,791.79|7,050.01|8,538.52|7,584.97| |短期借款|1,076.50|2,105.26|890.00|1,497.63|1,193.82| |应付票据及应付账款|960.25|1,040.16|411.65|1,295.88|572.35| |其他|1,015.45|579.35|1,396.43|1,412.48|1,526.83| |流动负债合计|3,052.20|3,724.77|2,698.08|4,206.00|3,292.99| |长期借款|485.94|461.27|450.00|455.63|452.82| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|440.14|347.18|421.17|402.83|390.39| |非流动负债合计|926.08|808.45|871.17|858.46|843.21| |负债合计|4,600.49|5,177.26|3,569.25|5,064.46|4,136.20| [6] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|5,314.34|4,899.83|4,256.48|4,548.90|4,965.58| |营业成本|3,474.64|3,185.90|2,835.24|3,008.19|3,282.25| |营业税金及附加|54.90|53.51|42.02|47.19|51.59| |销售费用|1,256.85|1,080.87|1,021.56|955.27|1,042.77| |管理费用|310.47|306.16|259.65|277.48|288.00| |研发费用|167.36|174.15|144.72|158.30|169.33| |财务费用|67.13|47.61|39.25|32.24|33.35| |资产/信用减值损失|(29.78)|(54.32)|(34.55)|(39.55)|(42.81)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|1.16|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|28.54|3.26|15.35|15.72|11.44| |其他|(45.18)|44.94|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|29.40|56.60|(105.15)|46.39|66.92| |营业外收入|7.23|5.21|5.48|5.98|5.56| |营业外支出|6.36|7.10|7.85|7.11|7.35| |利润总额|30.27|54.72|(107.52)|45.26|65.13| |所得税|(15.74)|(9.95)|19.56|(8.23)|(11.85)| |净利润|46.01|64.67|(127.09)|53.50|76.98| |少数股东损益|(0.29)|(0.17)|0.50|(0.23)|(0.28)| |归属于母公司净利润|46.30|64.85|(127.59)|53.73|77.26| |每股收益（元）|0.21|0.29|(0.57)|0.24|0.34| [6] 现金流量表 (百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|46.01|64.67|(127.59)|53.73|77.26| |折旧摊销|283.40|292.35|255.88|266.51|276.96| |财务费用|84.76|83.74|39.25|32.24|33.35| |投资损失|(28.54)|(3.26)|(15.35)|(15.72)|(11.44)| |营运资金变动|(175.53)|279.99|(228.87)|424.99|(197.91)| |其它|(163.28)|81.23|0.50|(0.23)|(0.28)| |经营活动现金流|46.82|798.72|(76.19)|761.52|177.94| |资本支出|1,143.88|263.40|206.01|268.34|262.44| |长期投资|1.25|(2.29)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,040.74)|(416.52)|(470.66)|(502.62)|(500.99)| |投资活动现金流|104.39|(155.42)|(264.65)|(234.28)|(238.56)| |债权融资|191.95|1,011.46|(1,288.28)|577.70|(330.27)| |股权融资|(42.77)|(197.50)|(6.68)|(60.19)|(102.27)| |其他|(256.60)|(1,688.59)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(107.42)|(874.63)|(1,294.96)|517.51|(432.54)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|43.78|(231.33)|(1,635.80)|1,044.75|(493.15)| [8] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入增长率|-27.30%|-7.80%|-13.13%|6.87%|9.16%| |营业利润增长率|-48.43%|92.54%|-285.77%|-144.12%|44.25%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|-48.39%|40.06%|-296.76%|-142.11%|43.79%| |毛利率|34.62%|34.98%|33.39%|33.87%|33.90%| |净利率|0.87%|1.32%|-3.00%|1.18%|1.56%| |ROE|1.29%|1.79%|-3.67%|1.55%|2.24%| |ROIC|12.33%|5.47%|-3.18%|3.73%|5.37%| |资产负债率|56.23%|58.89%|50.63%|59.31%|54.53%| |净负债率|2.94%|-7.13%|3.71%|-8.80%|-3.17%| |流动比率|0.99|1.01|0.91|0.98|0.97| |速动比率|0.75|0.84|0.71|0.75|0.76| |应收账款周转率|27.23|24.95|30.68|27.42|27.49| |存货周转率|6.01|5.90|6.41|6.05|6.10| |总资产周转率|0.66|0.58|0.54|0.58|0.62| |每股收益（元）|0.21|0.29|-0.57|0.24|0.34| |每股经营现金流（元）|0.21|3.56|-0.34|3.39|0.79| |每股净资产（元）|15.95|16.10|15.50|15.47|15.36|