报告公司投资评级 - 行业为纺织服饰/服装家纺，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 歌力思发布2024年度业绩预告，24Q4归母净利润预计-3.11至-4.11亿元，同比-903%至-1226%；扣非归母-2.46至-3.51亿元，同比-423%至-647%；24年度归母净利润预计-3.89至-2.89亿元，上年同期1.06亿元；扣非归母-3.43至-2.38亿元，上年同期0.8亿元；若不考虑相关因素影响，预计归母净利润0.52至1.02亿元 [1] - 2024年公司旗下多品牌矩阵在国内保持良好增长态势，主营收入同比增长约3%-7%，主要品牌在国内市场均正增长，国际品牌self - portrait、Laurèl、IRO表现突出，推动国内业务营收同比增长约7%-13% [2] - IRO品牌海外业务受欧美通胀、地缘局势等影响，业绩未达预期，2025年低效门店加速关闭，盈利规模将下降，公司将加快加大调整改善措施，优化商业模型 [3] - 基于业绩预告调整盈利预测，预计公司24 - 26年EPS分别为-0.8/0.2以及0.3元（原值为0.2、0.2以及0.3元），PE分别为-9X、35X、25X，维持“增持”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|2,394.74|2,915.18|3,063.86|3,441.94|3,906.60| |增长率(%)|1.35|21.73|5.10|12.34|13.50| |EBITDA(百万元)|277.70|640.49|451.99|367.57|393.74| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|20.45|105.65|(296.99)|73.40|101.99| |增长率(%)|(93.27)|416.56|135.57|(124.72)|38.95| |EPS(元/股)|0.06|0.29|(0.80)|0.20|0.28| |市盈率(P/E)|126.69|24.53|(8.72)|35.30|25.40| |市净率(P/B)|0.94|0.89|1.00|0.99|0.97| |市销率(P/S)|1.08|0.89|0.85|0.75|0.66| |EV/EBITDA|8.06|3.41|3.68|5.19|5.43| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本369.09百万股，流通A股股本369.09百万股，A股总市值2,591.03百万元，流通A股市值2,591.03百万元，每股净资产7.70元，资产负债率30.51%，一年内最高/最低9.23/5.72元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|518.39|585.40|463.23|221.60|34.24| |应收票据及应收账款|289.77|367.00|306.61|488.36|392.09| |预付账款|16.30|13.25|42.86|54.66|70.78| |存货|775.48|944.72|842.53|1,140.41|1,368.50| |其他|157.27|163.53|179.68|217.67|237.69| |流动资产合计|1,757.22|2,073.89|1,834.92|2,122.70|2,103.29| |长期股权投资|447.64|522.89|522.89|522.89|522.89| |固定资产|183.48|175.87|179.36|195.35|199.33| |在建工程|1.42|0.55|0.55|5.55|5.55| |无形资产|627.07|581.27|563.39|545.51|527.63| |其他|1,326.63|1,267.52|1,126.36|1,131.47|1,137.22| |非流动资产合计|2,586.24|2,548.10|2,392.54|2,400.76|2,392.62| |资产总计|4,343.46|4,621.99|4,227.46|4,523.46|4,495.91| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|212.35|290.14|157.47|385.61|238.86| |其他|517.92|588.60|732.62|751.07|821.19| |流动负债合计|730.27|878.74|890.09|1,136.68|1,060.05| |长期借款|102.21|55.64|115.00|125.00|140.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|577.68|547.49|557.98|537.76|502.48| |少数股东权益|114.15|163.21|77.60|104.96|129.44| |股本|369.09|369.09|369.09|369.09|369.09| |资本公积|764.51|780.02|780.02|780.02|780.02| |留存收益|1,749.15|1,848.61|1,551.62|1,585.73|1,625.19| |其他|(132.07)|(101.35)|(113.94)|(115.79)|(110.36)| |股东权益合计|2,864.83|3,059.58|2,664.39|2,724.01|2,793.38| |负债和股东权益总计|4,343.46|4,621.99|4,227.46|4,523.46|4,495.91| [12] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|2,394.74|2,915.18|3,063.86|3,441.94|3,906.60| |营业成本|866.56|939.08|1,072.35|1,170.26|1,328.24| |营业税金及附加|14.91|18.50|19.34|21.67|24.59| |销售费用|1,134.90|1,343.40|1,470.65|1,652.13|1,875.17| |管理费用|223.74|243.14|269.62|296.01|335.97| |研发费用|52.13|72.50|72.15|80.52|93.51| |财务费用|34.07|18.87|91.00|94.12|77.80| |资产/信用减值损失|(42.90)|(155.82)|(500.00)|(40.00)|(40.00)| |公允价值变动收益|(8.34)|3.88|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|42.82|71.49|(157.15)|64.32|60.74| |其他|(4.47)|137.93|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|81.32|222.22|(588.40)|151.55|192.05| |营业外收入|15.15|3.98|18.00|19.00|20.00| |营业外支出|4.26|5.68|5.61|5.19|5.49| |利润总额|92.21|220.52|(576.01)|165.36|206.55| |所得税|36.59|58.57|(115.20)|33.07|41.31| |净利润|55.62|161.95|(460.81)|132.29|165.24| |少数股东损益|35.17|56.30|(163.82)|58.89|63.25| |归属于母公司净利润|20.45|105.65|(296.99)|73.40|101.99| |每股收益（元）|0.06|0.29|(0.80)|0.20|0.28| [12] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|55.62|161.95|(296.99)|73.40|101.99| |折旧摊销|126.35|131.32|49.39|51.89|53.89| |财务费用|28.99|23.85|91.00|94.12|77.80| |投资损失|(42.94)|(71.49)|157.15|(64.32)|(60.74)| |营运资金变动|(161.77)|(118.63)|161.72|(276.33)|(294.31)| |其它|307.84|352.64|(163.82)|58.89|63.25| |经营活动现金流|314.09|479.63|(1.54)|(62.35)|(58.11)| |资本支出|15.78|3.82|24.51|75.22|75.28| |长期投资|46.17|75.24|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(118.55)|(156.00)|(216.67)|(65.90)|(54.54)| |投资活动现金流|(56.60)|(76.94)|(192.15)|9.32|20.74| |债权融资|(206.33)|(45.11)|5.92|(115.94)|(54.11)| |股权融资|(15.17)|(41.06)|65.62|(72.67)|(95.87)| |其他|(335.20)|(186.88)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(556.70)|(273.05)|71.54|(188.61)|(149.98)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(299.21)|129.64|(122.16)|(241.64)|(187.36)| [12] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力 - 营业收入|1.35%|21.73%|5.10%|12.34%|13.50%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|-76.30%|173.26%|137.77%|-125.76%|26.72%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|-93.27%|416.56%|135.57%|-124.72%|38.95%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|63.81%|67.79%|65.00%|66.00%|66.00%| |获利能力 - 净利率|0.85%|3.62%|-9.69%|2.13%|2.61%| |获利能力 - ROE|0.74%|3.65%|-11.48%|2.80%|3.83%| |获利能力 - ROIC|4.31%|10.86%|-23.47%|11.84%|11.16%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|34.04%|33.80%|36.97%|39.78%|37.87%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|-7.05%|-9.65%|-2.86%|5.28%|12.70%