报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [3][5] 报告的核心观点 - 天味食品24年营业收入34.76亿元，同比增长10.41%；归母净利润6.26亿元，同比增长36.99%；24Q4营业收入11.12亿元，同比增长21.57%；归母净利润1.93亿元，同比增长41.75% [1] - 业绩增长较快原因包括营业收入增长、原材料综合采购成本下降使毛利率增加、营运管理效率提高 [1] - 公司下半年聚焦大单品，通过加强产品创新和消费者洞察、关注市场动态调整销售策略、优化渠道布局、强化内部管理实现业绩增长 [1] - 小B渠道拓展稳步推进，是未来业绩增长重要渠道；并购加点滋味补强线上C端，为品牌年轻化带来新思路和新增量；设立杭州分公司加速营销服务网络升级建设 [2] - 短期公司深化优商/扶商模式，收购食萃补足B端，收购加点滋味补齐线上C端；中长期有望补充弱势渠道，区域性单品有望贡献增长 [3] - 略调整盈利预测，预计25 - 26年营收为40.05/44.68亿元，同增15%/12%；归母净利润为7.53/8.68亿元，同增20%/15%，对应PE分别为19X/17X [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |年份|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|2,690.71|3,148.56|3,476.26|4,004.77|4,468.01| |增长率(%)|32.84|17.02|10.41|15.20|11.57| |EBITDA(百万元)|463.83|617.95|788.49|924.99|1,036.80| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|341.70|456.70|625.25|752.88|867.89| |增长率(%)|85.11|33.65|36.91|20.41|15.28| |EPS(元/股)|0.32|0.43|0.59|0.71|0.81| |市盈率(P/E)|42.23|31.60|23.08|19.17|16.63| |市净率(P/B)|3.59|3.34|2.89|2.53|2.19| |市销率(P/S)|5.36|4.58|4.15|3.60|3.23| |EV/EBITDA|38.41|17.82|13.74|10.52|8.66| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,065.08百万股，流通A股股本1,064.77百万股，A股总市值14,431.89百万元，流通A股市值14,427.57百万元 [6] - 每股净资产4.10元，资产负债率18.20%，一年内最高/最低15.78/8.50元 [6] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|449.54|466.66|848.60|1,890.25|2,599.06| |应收票据及应收账款|17.15|19.57|19.05|27.67|29.42| |预付账款|23.70|12.89|22.01|24.67|23.67| |存货|146.61|159.27|189.77|197.02|271.71| |流动资产合计|3,153.44|3,394.31|3,807.97|4,986.38|5,827.11| |长期股权投资|397.95|311.34|311.34|311.34|311.34| |固定资产|727.03|1,042.18|989.96|936.85|882.80| |在建工程|287.53|29.37|29.62|29.77|29.86| |无形资产|45.83|49.71|44.46|39.21|33.96| |非流动资产合计|1,668.29|1,879.38|1,852.90|1,792.06|1,724.11| |资产总计|4,821.73|5,273.69|5,660.88|6,778.44|7,551.22| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|390.33|551.00|216.89|636.71|359.34| |流动负债合计|623.95|798.61|568.79|964.36|838.20| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |非流动负债合计|12.93|5.71|12.12|10.25|9.36| |负债合计|796.93|872.16|580.91|974.62|847.56| |少数股东权益|4.69|74.50|86.57|101.10|117.85| |股本|763.05|1,065.49|1,065.08|1,065.08|1,065.08| |资本公积|1,954.71|1,697.33|1,697.33|1,697.33|1,697.33| |留存收益|1,522.18|1,736.40|2,361.66|3,114.54|3,982.42| |股东权益合计|4,024.80|4,401.54|5,079.96|5,803.82|6,703.66| |负债和股东权益总计|4,821.73|5,273.69|5,660.88|6,778.44|7,551.22| [9][10] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|2,690.71|3,148.56|3,476.26|4,004.77|4,468.01| |营业成本|1,769.94|1,955.74|2,094.26|2,400.76|2,636.61| |营业税金及附加|22.36|28.56|31.53|36.33|40.53| |销售费用|387.94|483.95|490.15|572.68|652.33| |管理费用|150.05|198.24|219.00|248.30|268.08| |研发费用|31.97|31.78|34.76|40.05|44.68| |财务费用|(18.20)|(11.56)|(16.87)|(35.12)|(57.57)| |资产/信用减值损失|(1.48)|(2.01)|(1.69)|(1.72)|(1.81)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.00|50.00|80.00|70.00| |投资净收益|54.30|70.03|54.02|59.45|61.17| |营业利润|405.82|534.48|725.75|879.50|1,012.71| |营业外收入|1.57|3.04|11.37|5.33|6.58| |营业外支出|3.59|1.97|2.66|2.74|2.46| |利润总额|403.80|535.54|734.46|882.09|1,016.83| |所得税|63.19|70.03|97.13|114.67|132.19| |净利润|340.61|465.51|637.32|767.41|884.64| |少数股东损益|(1.09)|8.82|12.07|14.53|16.75| |归属于母公司净利润|341.70|456.70|625.25|752.88|867.89| |每股收益（元）|0.32|0.43|0.59|0.71|0.81| [9][10] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|340.61|465.51|625.25|752.88|867.89| |折旧摊销|48.33|65.35|77.22|78.21|79.20| |财务费用|0.05|(0.02)|(16.87)|(35.12)|(57.57)| |投资损失|(54.30)|(70.03)|(54.02)|(59.45)|(61.17)| |营运资金变动|240.97|66.86|(303.71)|339.59|(180.24)| |其它|(29.50)|74.96|62.07|94.53|86.75| |经营活动现金流|546.14|602.63|389.95|1,170.64|734.87| |资本支出|573.29|337.06|13.59|21.87|20.89| |长期投资|215.92|(86.62)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,875.00)|(586.24)|(79.58)|(142.42)|(119.72)| |投资活动现金流|(1,085.79)|(335.80)|(65.98)|(120.55)|(98.83)| |债权融资|18.08|11.56|16.87|35.12|57.57| |股权融资|(330.65)|(330.30)|41.10|(43.56)|15.20| |其他|256.92|74.04|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(55.66)|(244.70)|57.97|(8.44)|72.77| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(595.30)|22.13|381.93|1,041.66|708.80| [10] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力 - 营业收入|32.84%|17.02%|10.41%|15.20%|11.57%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|114.66%|31.70%|35.79%|21.19%|15.15%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|85.11%|33.65%|36.91%|20.41%|15.28%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|34.22%|37.88%|39.76%|40.05%|40.99%| |获利能力 - 净利率|12.70%|14.50%|17.99%|18.80%|19.42%| |获利能力 - ROE|8.50%|10.55%|12.52%|13.20%|13.18%| |获利能力 - ROIC|49.14%|52.53%|52.20%|52.69%|83.18%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|16.53%|16.54%|10.26%|14.38%|11.22%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|-11.17%|-10.60%|-16.70%|-32.57%|-38.77%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|4.02|3.92|6.69|5.17|6.95| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|3.84|3.73|6.36|4.97|6.63| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|174.78|171.51|180.00|171.43|156.52| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|21.13|20.59|19.92|20.71|19.06| |营运能力 - 总资产周转率|0.59|0.62|0.64|0.64|0.62|