报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/照明设备Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年预计归母净利润4 - 4.7亿元，同比+37.76% - 61.87%；扣非归母净利润0.67 - 1.01亿元，同比下降63.43% - 75.62%；4Q4预计归母净利润1.5 - 2.2亿元，同比+188.5% - 324%；扣非归母净利润 - 1.5 ~ - 1.2亿元，同比 - 438.1% ~ - 363% [1] - 收入端车灯模组业务快速增长，通用照明业务承压；利润端因控股子公司国星光电业绩不及预期，预计对收购其股权形成的商誉计提减值1.3 - 1.6亿元，还原商誉影响后归母净利润区间为5.3 - 6.3亿元；公司地块转让预计增加2024年度约2.95亿元非经常性净收益，后续对25 - 26年业绩也有正向贡献 [2] - 公司积极做大照明版图，在车灯、新兴照明、中上游LED封装领域有布局；考虑子公司国星光电商誉仍有计提可能，下调24 - 26年业绩，预计归母净利润分别为4.3/5.5/6.4亿元（前值6/7/7.6亿元），对应PE为21.0x/16.7x/14.3x，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|8,759.97|9,057.29|9,198.47|10,613.03|11,546.58| |增长率(%)|83.54|3.39|1.56|15.38|8.80| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,423.51|1,502.99|1,112.87|1,009.29|1,061.28| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|230.39|290.36|434.97|549.10|638.27| |增长率(%)| - 7.88|26.03|49.80|26.24|16.24| |EPS(元/股)|0.17|0.19|0.28|0.36|0.42| |市盈率(P/E)|35.23|31.79|21.04|16.67|14.34| |市净率(P/B)|1.57|1.47|1.29|1.31|1.27| |市销率(P/S)|0.93|1.02|1.00|0.86|0.79| |EV/EBITDA|4.97|6.06|7.17|5.80|6.41| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,232.10百万股，流通A股股本1,183.74百万股，A股总市值7,343.35百万元，流通A股市值7,055.07百万元 [7] - 每股净资产4.13元，资产负债率42.28%，一年内最高/最低6.44/4.31元 [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |股本|1,361.99|1,548.78|1,535.78|1,535.78|1,535.78| |股东权益合计|8,600.35|9,771.40|10,660.57|10,596.75|10,890.95| |非流动负债合计|1,064.43|521.88|367.65|320.00|280.00| |负债合计|6,686.71|7,163.04|4,288.28|8,256.83|5,697.70| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|719.36| - 227.85| - 1,402.32|1,970.32| - 1,742.92| |长期投资|0.39| - 2.74|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 495.14|772.68|316.85| - 786.33| - 545.63| [13] 资产负债表和利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|2,484.51|3,596.05|3,053.04|5,501.35|4,590.20| |应收票据及应收账款|2,742.31|3,150.85|2,654.75|3,813.97|3,465.42| |预付账款|45.53|34.51|35.21|48.09|44.26| |存货|2,031.64|1,971.17|1,571.93|2,541.44|2,081.42| |其他|966.37|775.53|742.40|842.55|792.41| |流动资产合计|8,270.35|9,528.11|8,057.32|12,747.40|10,973.71| |长期股权投资|181.93|179.19|179.19|179.19|179.19| |固定资产|3,508.09|3,453.21|2,933.88|2,414.54|1,895.20| |在建工程|1,282.78|1,174.53|1,174.53|1,174.53|1,174.53| |无形资产|340.17|434.55|418.95|403.36|387.76| |其他|1,703.74|2,164.84|2,184.97|1,934.57|1,978.25| |非流动资产合计|7,016.71|7,406.33|6,891.53|6,106.18|5,614.94| |资产总计|15,287.06|16,934.44|14,948.85|18,853.58|16,588.65| |短期借款|157.72|220.02|100.00|80.00|60.00| |应付票据及应付账款|4,488.92|5,147.15|2,925.57|6,574.00|4,220.76| |其他|975.65|1,273.99|895.06|1,282.83|1,136.95| |流动负债合计|5,622.28|6,641.16|3,920.63|7,936.83|5,417.70| |长期借款|747.93|253.09|100.00|60.00|30.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|316.50|268.79|267.65|260.00|250.00| |少数股东权益|3,427.28|3,485.95|3,542.75|3,611.72|3,690.76| |股本|1,361.99|1,548.78|1,535.78|1,535.78|1,535.78| |资本公积|7.25|914.34|914.34|914.34|914.34| |留存收益|3,387.85|3,543.25|3,723.09|3,941.50|4,191.80| |其他|415.98|279.08|944.62|593.43|558.27| |股东权益合计|8,600.35|9,771.40|10,660.57|10,596.75|10,890.95| |负债和股东权益总计|15,287.06|16,934.44|14,948.85|18,853.58|16,588.65| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|8,759.97|9,057.29|9,198.47|10,613.03|11,546.58| |营业成本|7,223.97|7,354.81|7,449.85|8,520.46|9,229.72| |营业税金及附加|62.03|72.27|78.19|90.21|98.15| |销售费用|256.82|331.04|377.14|435.13|473.41| |管理费用|408.12|430.54|459.92|530.65|577.33| |研发费用|440.79|483.58|551.91|636.78|692.80| |财务费用| - 31.48| - 32.50| - 27.60| - 31.84| - 34.64| |资产/信用减值损失| - 106.92| - 133.40| - 174.06| - 93.52| - 56.28| |公允价值变动收益| - 9.52|1.13|96.47| - 26.42| - 14.55| |投资净收益|10.63|14.60|50.00|38.00|45.00| |其他|85.86|102.92|322.63|387.65|380.86| |营业利润|379.77|402.80|604.09|737.33|864.86| |营业外收入|18.76|9.54|20.00|50.00|50.00| |营业外支出|16.81|6.54|2.00|2.00|2.00| |利润总额|381.72|405.80|622.09|785.33|912.86| |所得税|30.87|21.13|49.77|62.83|73.03| |净利润|350.84|384.67|572.32|722.51|839.83| |少数股东损益|120.45|94.31|137.36|173.40|201.56| |归属于母公司净利润|230.39|290.36|434.97|549.10|638.27| |每股收益（元）|0.17|0.19|0.28|0.36|0.42| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|83.54%|3.39%|1.56%|15.38%|8.80%| |营业利润|35.46%|6.06%|49.97%|22.06%|17.30%| |归属于母公司净利润| - 7.88%|26.03%|49.80%|26.24%|16.24%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|17.53%|18.80%|19.01%|19.72%|20.07%| |净利率|2.63%|3.21%|4.73%|5.17%|5.53%| |ROE|4.45%|4.62%|6.11%|7.86%|8.86%| |ROIC|12.14%|6.33%|10.41%|10.92%|20.72%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|43.74%|42.30%|28.69%|43.79%|34.35%| |净负债率| - 17.60%| - 28.44%| - 25.40%| - 48.85%| - 39.26%| |流动比率|1.47|1.43|2.06|1.61|2.03| |速动比率|1.11|1.14|1.65|1.29|1.64| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|3.66|3.07|3.17|3.28|3.17| |存货周转率|5.66|4.53|5.19|5.16|5.00| |总资产周转率|0.70|0.56|0.58|0.63|0.65| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.17|0.19|0.28|0.36|0.42| |每股经营现金流|0.78|0.76| - 0.18|2.04| - 0.30|