报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/非白酒，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 重庆啤酒24年营业总收入、归母净利、扣非净利同比下滑，24Q4营收、归母净利、扣非净利表现不佳且亏损扩大 [1] - 24年销量和吨收入同比下降，24Q4销量和吨收入下滑更明显，库存持续消化，高端销量占比仍有提升 [2] - 24年归母净利率和营业利润率同比下降，Q4降幅更大，主要因销量下滑和数字化进程推进；展望25年，公司在战略指引下推进多项举措，期待现饮场景恢复 [3] - 考虑需求环境和业绩快报，调整24 - 26年盈利预测，预计收入和归母净利润情况，对应PE分别为21X/21X/20X，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|14,039.04|14,814.84|14,644.60|14,749.49|15,167.91| |增长率(%)|7.01|5.53|(1.15)|0.72|2.84| |EBITDA(百万元)|3,927.10|3,941.21|3,905.42|3,992.48|4,204.43| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,263.60|1,336.60|1,245.22|1,280.45|1,350.91| |增长率(%)|8.35|5.78|(6.84)|2.83|5.50| |EPS(元/股)|2.61|2.76|2.57|2.65|2.79| |市盈率(P/E)|21.14|19.99|21.45|20.86|19.78| |市净率(P/B)|12.99|12.48|12.47|12.47|12.48| |市销率(P/S)|1.90|1.80|1.82|1.81|1.76| |EV/EBITDA|15.00|7.53|6.30|6.05|5.66| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本483.97百万股，流通A股股本483.97百万股，A股总市值26,715.21百万元，流通A股市值26,715.21百万元 [8] - 每股净资产4.41元，资产负债率66.84%，一年内最高/最低股价为77.00/50.85元 [8] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|563.30|553.02|560.00|570.00|580.00| |负债合计|8,874.52|8,734.76|8,693.42|8,897.26|9,054.32| |股本|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97| |股东权益合计|3,623.02|3,652.15|3,653.75|3,653.53|3,653.14| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|262.48|(412.52)|(62.54)|203.97|68.54| |长期投资|56.28|(155.99)|40.00|45.00|50.00| |股权融资|(1,252.38)|(1,349.37)|(2,519.20)|(2,592.21)|(2,735.02)| [12] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|3,397.88|2,712.72|2,335.42|2,783.49|3,087.97| |应收票据及应收账款|65.51|64.63|65.55|65.56|69.27| |预付账款|43.19|41.83|41.72|40.41|41.07| |存货|2,166.48|2,100.35|2,119.25|2,092.84|2,110.09| |其他|130.98|545.07|549.69|566.78|567.85| |流动资产合计|5,804.04|5,464.61|5,111.63|5,549.09|5,876.25| |长期股权投资|296.60|140.61|180.61|225.61|275.61| |固定资产|3,680.69|3,673.99|4,447.99|4,216.99|3,995.98| |在建工程|395.30|783.50|383.50|433.50|483.50| |无形资产|685.17|677.05|614.23|551.41|488.59| |其他|1,635.75|1,647.15|1,609.19|1,574.19|1,587.53| |非流动资产合计|6,693.51|6,922.31|7,235.53|7,001.70|6,831.21| |资产总计|12,497.54|12,386.91|12,347.16|12,550.79|12,707.46| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,497.67|2,607.63|2,489.32|2,649.43|2,582.78| |其他|4,199.51|3,907.32|5,644.10|5,677.83|5,891.54| |流动负债合计|6,697.18|6,514.95|8,133.42|8,327.26|8,474.32| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|563.30|553.02|560.00|570.00|580.00| |少数股东权益|1,566.87|1,511.95|1,511.95|1,511.95|1,511.95| |股本|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97| |资本公积|7.73|16.02|16.02|16.02|16.02| |留存收益|1,578.00|1,656.29|1,656.29|1,656.29|1,656.29| |其他|(13.54)|(16.09)|(14.49)|(14.71)|(15.09)| |股东权益合计|3,623.02|3,652.15|3,653.75|3,653.53|3,653.14| |负债和股东权益总计|12,497.54|12,386.91|12,347.16|12,550.79|12,707.46| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|14,039.04|14,814.84|14,644.60|14,749.49|15,167.91| |营业成本|6,952.43|7,533.98|7,520.09|7,581.77|7,719.67| |营业税金及附加|920.86|957.55|947.85|949.87|978.33| |销售费用|2,326.22|2,532.62|2,516.84|2,507.41|2,578.54| |管理费用|534.57|494.67|490.59|486.73|492.96| |研发费用|110.75|26.23|27.43|26.55|27.30| |财务费用|(56.10)|(60.31)|(58.91)|(59.74)|(68.52)| |资产/信用减值损失|(78.93)|(102.54)|(86.00)|(82.00)|(82.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.20|2.80|4.50|2.50| |投资净收益|67.95|66.58|67.00|67.00|67.00| |其他|(37.66)|13.07|0.00|(0.00)|0.00| |营业利润|3,298.97|3,352.79|3,184.51|3,246.39|3,427.13| |营业外收入|7.15|28.77|8.50|28.00|28.00| |营业外支出|7.34|5.88|19.00|10.74|11.87| |利润总额|3,298.78|3,375.69|3,174.01|3,263.66|3,443.26| |所得税|711.88|664.12|653.21|671.66|708.62| |净利润|2,586.90|2,711.57|2,520.80|2,592.00|2,734.63| |少数股东损益|1,323.29|1,374.97|1,275.57|1,311.55|1,383.72| |归属于母公司净利润|1,263.60|1,336.60|1,245.22|1,280.45|1,350.91| |每股收益（元）|2.61|2.76|2.57|2.65|2.79| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|7.01%|5.53%|-1.15%|0.72%|2.84%| |营业利润|11.92%|1.63%|-5.02%|1.94%|5.57%| |归属于母公司净利润|8.35%|5.78%|-6.84%|2.83%|5.50%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|50.48%|49.15%|48.65%|48.60%|49.11%| |净利率|9.00%|9.02%|8.50%|8.68%|8.91%| |ROE|61.45%|62.45%|58.14%|59.79%|63.09%| |ROIC|-308.60%|-384.74%|-760.65%|5583.90%|-646.70%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|71.01%|70.52%|70.41%|70.89%|71.25%| |净负债率|-93.12%|-73.12%|-62.82%|-74.95%|-83.16%| |流动比率|0.70|0.67|0.63|0.67|0.69| |速动比率|0.44|0.41|0.37|0.42|0.44| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|160.67|227.68|225.00|225.00|225.00| |存货周转率|6.93|6.94|6.94|7.00|7.22| |总资产周转率|1.17|1.19|1.18|1.18|1.20| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|2.61|2.76|2.57|2.65|2.79| |每股经营现金流|7.75|6.40|6.08|6.85|6.93| |每股净资产|4.25|4.42|4.43|4.43|4.42| |估值比率| | | | | | |市盈率|21.14|19.99|21.45|20.86|19.78| |市净率|12.99|12.48|12.47|12.47|12.48| |EV/EBITDA|15.00|7.53|6.30|6.05|5.66| |EV/EBIT|17.05|8.57|7.47