报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司营收14.23亿元左右，同比-49.7%；归母净利润0.10 - 0.15亿元，同比下降98% - 97%；扣非净利润500 - 750万元，同比下降99% [1] - 2024年改革逐步见效但行业竞争加剧使公司经营承压，2025年资源聚焦“粮仓”市场有望突破，预计动销强于报表，2024Q4营收降幅大因需求弱渠道回款谨慎 [1] - 2024年营销改革逐步见效，全国市场消费者扫码瓶数同比增长95%，参与扫码消费者人数同比增长92%，参与扫码终端数量同比增长44% [1] - 高端产品内参承压明显，2024年处于新品市场拓展期未形成销量支撑致高端产品收入占比下降 [2] - 2024年利润端承压，一是高端产品占比下降、产品结构下行致毛利率承压，二是加大消费端费用投放致费用率提升 [2] - 营销转型进入关键阶段，下调盈利预测，预计24 - 26年公司收入分别为14.23/15.85/17.41亿元，归母净利润分别为0.14/1.27/1.71亿元，对应PE为1028X/116X/86X，维持“增持”评级 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|4,050.41|2,829.67|1,422.76|1,584.55|1,740.54| |增长率(%)|18.63|(30.14)|(49.72)|11.37|9.84| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,419.04|685.86|3.00|165.71|225.90| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,048.80|547.81|14.33|126.87|170.87| |增长率(%)|17.38|(47.77)|(97.38)|785.14|34.68| |EPS(元/股)|3.23|1.69|0.04|0.39|0.53| |市盈率(P/E)|14.04|26.89|1,027.62|116.10|86.20| |市净率(P/B)|3.55|3.44|3.44|3.40|3.34| |市销率(P/S)|3.64|5.21|10.35|9.30|8.46| |EV/EBITDA|29.36|31.11|4,022.66|76.93|53.23| [3] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|3,077.38|2,361.20|2,601.93|1,910.68|2,633.41| |应收票据及应收账款|44.74|37.62|3.79|42.33|8.33| |预付账款|13.46|13.48|3.22|14.43|4.66| |存货|1,417.33|1,556.89|283.01|1,700.42|418.04| |其他|190.08|290.60|277.84|279.92|280.27| |流动资产合计|4,742.98|4,259.79|3,169.79|3,947.78|3,344.70| |长期股权投资|30.54|30.41|30.41|30.41|30.41| |固定资产|517.09|527.45|673.55|711.69|699.03| |在建工程|245.84|572.24|700.06|767.88|802.55| |无形资产|211.35|209.10|197.88|186.65|175.43| |其他|86.53|70.53|70.53|70.53|70.53| |非流动资产合计|1,091.35|1,409.72|1,672.42|1,767.16|1,777.94| |资产总计|5,834.33|5,669.51|4,842.21|5,714.94|5,122.65| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|442.45|369.97|182.51|251.47|236.02| |其他|768.00|697.76|336.67|1,088.82|442.46| |流动负债合计|1,210.45|1,067.73|519.19|1,340.29|678.48| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|38.26|38.26|38.26|38.26|38.26| |少数股东权益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|324.93|324.93|324.93|324.93|324.93| |资本公积|1,161.26|1,161.26|1,161.26|1,161.26|1,161.26| |留存收益|2,666.04|2,792.74|2,798.57|2,850.19|2,919.71| |其他|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股东权益合计|4,152.23|4,278.93|4,284.76|4,336.38|4,405.90| |负债和股东权益总计|5,834.33|5,669.51|4,842.21|5,714.94|5,122.65| [11] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|4,050.41|2,829.67|1,422.76|1,584.55|1,740.54| |营业成本|824.90|612.66|379.00|408.57|436.38| |营业税金及附加|655.89|508.62|255.74|284.82|312.86| |销售费用|1,024.02|911.66|728.71|661.04|691.30| |管理费用|174.92|165.54|118.80|130.73|141.86| |研发费用|16.66|16.38|8.23|9.17|10.07| |财务费用|(54.26)|(102.42)|(93.63)|(85.12)|(85.71)| |资产/信用减值损失|(4.71)|(2.43)|(7.52)|(7.52)|(7.52)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|0.66|(0.59)|(0.47)|(0.47)|(0.47)| |其他|(9.00)|(6.08)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,421.32|726.33|17.92|167.36|225.79| |营业外收入|4.80|5.13|5.13|5.13|5.13| |营业外支出|26.52|4.02|4.02|4.02|4.02| |利润总额|1,399.60|727.45|19.03|168.47|226.90| |所得税|350.80|179.63|4.70|41.60|56.03| |净利润|1,048.80|547.81|14.33|126.87|170.87| |少数股东损益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|1,048.80|547.81|14.33|126.87|170.87| |每股收益（元）|3.23|1.69|0.04|0.39|0.53| [11] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|1,048.80|547.81|14.33|126.87|170.87| |折旧摊销|43.45|53.41|63.70|68.46|70.81| |财务费用|0.27|0.19|(93.63)|(85.12)|(85.71)| |投资损失|(0.66)|0.59|0.47|0.47|0.47| |营运资金变动|(1,034.83)|(644.01)|499.56|(648.14)|664.00| |其它|343.66|93.24|0.00|0.00|0.00| |经营活动现金流|400.69|51.24|484.43|(537.45)|820.44| |资本支出|259.56|387.79|326.39|163.20|81.60| |长期投资|0.66|(0.13)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(503.53)|(731.08)|(653.26)|(326.86)|(163.67)| |投资活动现金流|(243.31)|(343.42)|(326.86)|(163.67)|(82.07)| |债权融资|54.46|102.49|91.67|85.12|85.71| |股权融资|(422.41)|(324.93)|(8.50)|(75.25)|(101.35)| |其他|(55.42)|(201.55)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(423.37)|(424.00)|83.17|9.87|(15.64)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(265.99)|(716.18)|240.73|(691.25)|722.73| [11] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|18.63%|-30.14%|-49.72%|11.37%|9.84%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|19.06%|-48.90%|-97.53%|833.89%|34.92%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|17.38%|-47.77%|-97.38%|785.14%|34.68%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|79.63%|78.35%|73.36%|74.22%|74.93%| |获利能力 - 净利率|25.89%|19.36%|1.01%|8.01%|9.82%| |获利能力 - ROE|25.26%|12.80%|0.33%|2.93%|3.88%| |获利能力 - ROIC|1123.67%|47.45%|-3.08%|3.84%|4.48%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|28.83%|24.53%|11.51%|24.12%|13.99%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|-74.07%|-55.14%|-60.73%|-44.06%|-59.77%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|2.89|3.15|6.11|2.95|4.93| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|2.02|2.00|5.56|1.68|4.31| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|14.88|68.72|68.72|68.72|68.72| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|3.02|1.90|1.55|1.60|1