报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [3] 报告的核心观点 - 1月24日公司发布2024年度主要经营数据，预计净利润约134,078万元同比增约6%，营业收入约521,671万元同比增约5%，全年收入与利润增长完成经营目标 [1] - 核心单品臻酿八号成业绩核心驱动力，2024年销售规模或达30亿左右奠定营收基本盘，因其所处价格带符合市场放量逻辑且有高端品牌外溢效应 [1] - 24Q4净利率预计15.10%左右同比降2.94pcts，因旺季加大BC联动投入 [2] - 略调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年公司收入分别为52.2/57.7/63.1亿元，归母净利润分别为13.4/15.2/16.9亿元，对应PE为17.3X/15.2X/13.7X，维持“买入”评级 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|4,672.74|4,953.20|5,216.74|5,773.87|6,311.02| |增长率(%)|0.88|6.00|5.32|10.68|9.30| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,677.53|1,792.36|2,011.43|2,251.18|2,473.21| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,215.84|1,268.80|1,341.33|1,520.52|1,694.29| |增长率(%)|1.40|4.36|5.72|13.36|11.43| |EPS(元/股)|2.49|2.60|2.75|3.12|3.48| |市盈率(P/E)|19.06|18.27|17.28|15.24|13.68| |市净率(P/B)|6.70|5.27|4.41|3.71|3.16| |市销率(P/S)|4.96|4.68|4.45|4.02|3.68| |EV/EBITDA|23.20|14.45|9.99|8.09|7.09| [3] 基本数据 - A股总股本487.50百万股，流通A股股本487.50百万股，A股总市值23,175.90百万元，流通A股市值23,175.90百万元，每股净资产10.18元，资产负债率44.02%，一年内最高/最低63.33/30.31元 [4] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|1,911.72|2,349.52|2,674.60|4,575.47|5,244.07| |应收票据及应收账款|3.46|2.20|7.38|2.85|7.14| |预付账款|16.32|24.67|71.01|19.14|66.96| |存货|2,442.91|2,452.10|2,678.57|3,013.94|2,993.13| |其他|35.74|75.05|71.54|81.24|74.20| |流动资产合计|4,410.14|4,903.54|5,503.10|7,692.65|8,385.51| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|483.18|721.04|2,710.19|2,766.95|2,652.29| |在建工程|1,623.64|2,188.18|292.81|166.00|130.05| |无形资产|129.99|163.23|140.73|118.23|95.72| |其他|400.51|448.93|441.95|434.96|430.72| |非流动资产合计|2,637.32|3,521.38|3,585.68|3,486.13|3,308.78| |资产总计|7,047.46|8,424.92|9,088.78|11,178.78|11,694.29| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|1,165.86|1,091.76|1,197.07|1,417.64|1,318.77| |其他|1,367.45|1,688.49|2,595.22|3,476.78|2,990.39| |流动负债合计|2,533.30|2,780.25|3,792.29|4,894.43|4,309.17| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|28.37|30.67|30.67|30.67|30.67| |非流动负债合计|28.37|30.67|30.67|30.67|30.67| |负债合计|3,589.01|4,030.56|3,822.97|4,925.10|4,339.84| |少数股东权益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|488.36|488.36|488.36|488.36|488.36| |资本公积|418.52|415.44|415.44|415.44|415.44| |留存收益|2,723.79|3,626.96|4,498.42|5,486.29|6,587.06| |其他|(172.22)|(136.41)|(136.41)|(136.41)|(136.41)| |股东权益合计|3,458.45|4,394.35|5,265.81|6,253.68|7,354.45| |负债和股东权益总计|7,047.46|8,424.92|9,088.78|11,178.78|11,694.29| [7] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|4,672.74|4,953.20|5,216.74|5,773.87|6,311.02| |营业成本|724.68|834.18|857.33|935.48|1,004.66| |营业税金及附加|735.16|777.24|818.59|906.02|990.30| |销售费用|1,278.74|1,307.87|1,335.72|1,466.83|1,596.98| |管理费用|355.10|361.98|396.89|427.73|461.21| |研发费用|37.23|37.45|34.69|38.40|41.97| |财务费用|(33.07)|(25.79)|(31.08)|(45.16)|(61.43)| |资产/信用减值损失|(13.25)|(19.68)|(9.20)|(9.20)|(9.20)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(45.05)|(17.87)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,633.20|1,697.82|1,795.39|2,035.39|2,268.13| |营业外收入|1.68|7.42|7.00|7.00|7.00| |营业外支出|3.33|5.87|5.87|5.87|5.87| |利润总额|1,631.54|1,699.38|1,796.53|2,036.52|2,269.26| |所得税|415.70|430.58|455.20|516.01|574.98| |净利润|1,215.84|1,268.80|1,341.33|1,520.52|1,694.29| |少数股东损益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|1,215.84|1,268.80|1,341.33|1,520.52|1,694.29| |每股收益（元）|2.49|2.60|2.75|3.12|3.48| [7] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|1,215.84|1,268.80|1,341.33|1,520.52|1,694.29| |折旧摊销|90.36|107.02|228.72|242.56|248.11| |财务费用|0.74|0.46|(31.08)|(45.16)|(61.43)| |投资损失|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营运资金变动|(8.39)|497.38|(469.56)|820.44|(605.27)| |其它|15.00|(140.04)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |经营活动现金流|1,313.55|1,733.62|1,069.41|2,538.35|1,275.70| |资本支出|995.00|934.09|300.00|150.00|75.00| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,947.78)|(1,907.79)|(600.00)|(300.00)|(150.00)| |投资活动现金流|(952.78)|(973.70)|(300.00)|(150.00)|(75.00)| |债权融资|34.07|25.05|25.54|45.16|61.43| |股权融资|(389.45)|(411.73)|(469.87)|(532.64)|(593.52)| |其他|15.97|68.97|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(339.40)|(317.71)|(444.34)|(487.48)|(532.09)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|21.36|442.21|325.08|1,900.87|668.61| [7] 主要财务比率 |指标|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|0.88%|6.00%|5.32%|10.68%|9.30%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|-2.14%|3.96%|5.75%|13.37%|11.43%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|1.40%|4.36%|5.72%|13.36%|11.43%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|84.49%|83.16%|83.57%|83.80%|84.08%| |获利能力 - 净利率|26.02%|25.62%|25.71%|26.33%|26.85%| |获利能力 - ROE|35.16%|28.87%|25.47%|24.31%|23.04%| |获利能力 - ROIC|324.18%|108.32%|82.26%|69.14%|132.52%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|50.93%|47.84%|42.06%|44.06%|37.11%| |