报告公司投资评级 - 行业为机械设备/专用设备，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年3月美亚光电在华南口腔展发布全新云领者口腔CBCT，实现云端智能诊断，融合数字技术助力提升诊疗效率与准确性 [1] - 公司是国内CBCT领域领军企业，坚持技术创新，此前发布的“智领者”口腔CBCT、PD - MAR“去伪存真”影像技术、“美亚美牙”口腔健康数字化云平台新一代产品均有技术提升 [2] - 新产品美亚云领者口腔CBCT搭载“髓易诊”功能模块、“去伪存真”技术2.0，还能通过多源数据云端融合实现智能诊断报告自动化生成 [3] - 预计公司2024 - 2026年营业收入分别为23.89/26.65/29.59亿元，归母净利润分别为6.38/7.04/7.73亿元，虽下调盈利预测，但公司在口腔医疗设备领域竞争力强，维持“买入”评级 [3] 财务数据和估值 财务数据 |年份|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入(百万元)|2,117.26|2,425.39|2,388.70|2,665.39|2,958.58| |增长率(%)|16.79|14.55| - 1.51|11.58|11.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|809.19|879.56|755.36|870.24|985.61| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|730.11|744.83|638.23|704.30|772.55| |增长率(%)|42.85|2.02| - 14.31|10.35|9.69| |EPS(元/股)|0.83|0.84|0.72|0.80|0.88| |市盈率(P/E)|18.97|18.60|21.70|19.67|17.93| |市净率(P/B)|5.23|5.02|3.16|3.06|2.99| |市销率(P/S)|6.54|5.71|5.80|5.20|4.68| |EV/EBITDA|23.74|17.62|13.42|12.82|10.73| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本882.26百万股，流通A股股本433.96百万股，A股总市值13,851.44百万元，流通A股市值6,813.22百万元 [6] - 每股净资产2.91元，资产负债率18.77%，一年内最高/最低股价为20.60/12.10元 [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |非流动负债合计|65.25|53.29|65.63|70.53|63.67| |负债合计|665.70|665.65|769.63|871.07|862.32| |股本|882.48|882.33|882.26|882.26|882.26| |股东权益合计|2,649.22|2,759.08|4,387.88|4,527.61|4,636.73| |营运资金变动| - 308.27| - 43.24|552.24| - 762.98|653.57| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 661.29| - 635.38|990.56| - 564.57| - 663.43| [11] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |货币资金|1,454.84|1,419.81|2,944.67|2,021.03|2,706.63| |应收票据及应收账款|353.81|568.49|52.89|707.25|169.64| |预付账款|9.70|4.07|9.79|7.03|11.78| |存货|472.97|413.46|373.94|606.93|494.31| |其他|196.37|274.30|496.00|434.69|354.25| |流动资产合计|2,487.69|2,680.13|3,877.29|3,776.93|3,736.61| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|459.28|476.06|897.37|1,268.36|1,430.81| |在建工程|21.66|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |无形资产|57.85|56.74|54.14|51.54|48.93| |其他|288.43|211.80|328.70|301.85|282.70| |非流动资产合计|827.23|744.60|1,280.21|1,621.75|1,762.44| |资产总计|3,314.92|3,424.73|5,157.51|5,398.68|5,499.05| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|347.15|362.63|460.15|519.19|510.88| |其他|186.66|200.32|243.86|281.35|287.76| |流动负债合计|533.81|562.95|704.01|800.54|798.64| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|65.25|53.29|65.63|70.53|63.67| |少数股东权益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|882.48|882.33|882.26|882.26|882.26| |资本公积|265.61|283.00|1,792.51|1,792.51|1,792.51| |留存收益|1,348.10|1,477.10|1,581.32|1,696.32|1,822.47| |其他|153.03|116.64|131.80|156.52|139.50| |股东权益合计|2,649.22|2,759.08|4,387.88|4,527.61|4,636.73| |负债和股东权益总计|3,314.92|3,424.73|5,157.51|5,398.68|5,499.05| [12] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入|2,117.26|2,425.39|2,388.70|2,665.39|2,958.58| |营业成本|995.70|1,176.55|1,186.66|1,331.65|1,476.89| |营业税金及附加|16.79|18.22|18.97|21.35|23.22| |销售费用|227.82|282.95|276.50|306.71|336.60| |管理费用|107.12|103.60|103.90|119.02|134.22| |研发费用|122.57|148.69|153.48|167.61|182.20| |财务费用| - 96.92| - 50.19| - 65.42| - 74.43| - 70.86| |资产/信用减值损失| - 8.16| - 17.44| - 8.57| - 9.18| - 10.84| |公允价值变动收益| - 0.59|0.08|0.14|0.17| - 0.05| |投资净收益|10.95|0.38|20.10|14.41|11.46| |其他| - 103.28| - 61.28|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|845.26|823.83|726.28|798.87|876.88| |营业外收入|0.02|37.40|9.68|12.10|14.80| |营业外支出|7.19|0.24|3.09|2.85|3.34| |利润总额|838.08|860.98|732.87|808.12|888.33| |所得税|107.97|116.15|94.64|103.83|115.78| |净利润|730.11|744.83|638.23|704.30|772.55| |少数股东损益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|730.11|744.83|638.23|704.30|772.55| |每股收益（元）|0.83|0.84|0.72|0.80|0.88| [12] 现金流量表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |净利润|730.11|744.83|638.23|704.30|772.55| |折旧摊销|28.91|33.67|84.53|134.85|167.60| |财务费用| - 79.38| - 8.38| - 65.42| - 74.43| - 70.86| |投资损失| - 10.95| - 5.13| - 20.10| - 14.41| - 11.46| |营运资金变动| - 308.27| - 43.24|552.24| - 762.98|653.57| |其它| - 44.47| - 46.41|0.14|0.17| - 0.05| |经营活动现金流|315.95|675.35|1,189.63| - 12.49|1,511.34| |资本支出|101.91|39.63|490.91|498.34|334.29| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|397.61| - 125.44| - 1,211.66| - 919.35| - 567.46| |投资活动现金流|499.52| - 85.81| - 720.75| - 421.01| - 233.17| |债权融资|96.92|50.19|65.42|74.43|70.86| |股权融资| - 661.29| - 635.38|990.56| - 564.57| - 663.43| |其他|30.41| - 34.40|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流| - 533.95| - 619.59|1,055.98| - 490.14| - 592.57| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|281.53| - 30.06|1,524.86| - 923.64|685.61| [12] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |成长能力 - 营业收入|16.79%|14.55%| - 1.51%|11.58%|11.00%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|45.47%| - 2.53%| - 11.84%|10.00%|9.76%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|42.85%|2.02%| - 14.31%|10.35%|9.69%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|52.97%|5