报告公司投资评级 - 行业为纺织服饰/纺织制造，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司收入240.1亿，同增19.4%，归母38.4亿，同增20.0%，24Q4收入64.95亿，同增11.9%，归母9.98亿，同增9.3%；2024年销售运动鞋2.23亿双，同增17.5%，均价107.65元/双，同增1.5% [1] - 公司与Adidas于24年9月开始量产出货；2024年越南3家新工厂投产，印尼新建工厂2024H1投产，中国新设工厂及印尼基地另一厂区2025年2月投产 [2] - 公司客户多元，多数客户业绩成长，对营收增速高客户订单快速成长，在部分客户供应链竞争力强保障订单份额，且持续拓展新客户保障业绩成长 [3] - 新工厂投产约一年半到两年产能爬坡，工人熟练度和部门配合度运营几年后达较好状态，投产期影响毛利率但老工厂有改善空间，整体毛利率变动可控 [4] - 基于业绩快报调整盈利预测，预计24 - 26年收入为240/269/309亿（前值240/276/310亿）；归母净利分别为38.4/43.9/50.5亿（前值38.9/44.3/49.5亿）；对应EPS为3.29/3.76/4.33元（前值3.3/3.8/4.2元），对应PE为21/18/16x [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|20,569.27|20,113.74|24,005.75|26,886.44|30,919.41| |增长率(%)|17.74| - 2.21|19.35|12.00|15.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|5,349.58|5,241.11|5,788.65|6,496.53|7,384.12| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,228.02|3,200.21|3,840.87|4,387.53|5,047.45| |增长率(%)|16.63| - 0.86|20.02|14.23|15.04| |EPS(元/股)|2.77|2.74|3.29|3.76|4.33| |市盈率(P/E)|24.45|24.67|20.55|17.99|15.64| |市净率(P/B)|5.98|5.22|4.62|4.02|3.51| |市销率(P/S)|3.84|3.92|3.29|2.94|2.55| |EV/EBITDA|11.37|10.52|12.02|10.82|8.90| [6] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,167.00百万股，流通A股股本1,166.99百万股，A股总市值77,278.74百万元，流通A股市值77,278.23百万元，每股净资产14.02元，资产负债率24.78%，一年内最高/最低85.00/55.31元 [8] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|171.95|161.51|130.83|158.53|155.70| |负债合计(百万元)|3,914.84|4,330.73|4,979.78|5,695.25|5,100.66| |股本(百万元)|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00| |股东权益合计(百万元)|13,195.43|15,116.09|17,092.31|19,644.68|22,488.33| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动| - 482.82| - 405.02|1,578.90| - 3,378.93|1,666.17| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 1,076.05| - 1,286.64| - 1,864.76| - 1,835.32| - 2,203.98| [12] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|3,620.18|3,879.43|8,168.75|7,108.92|11,430.64| |应收票据及应收账款|3,114.68|3,764.85|2,147.39|5,275.79|3,511.24| |预付账款|58.59|64.79|151.87|114.17|160.33| |存货|2,463.51|2,741.32|2,774.39|3,971.42|3,603.68| |其他|2,247.13|2,667.80|2,645.45|2,608.61|2,691.05| |流动资产合计|11,504.08|13,118.19|15,887.85|19,078.91|21,396.94| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|3,654.82|3,813.97|3,876.12|3,903.91|3,877.09| |在建工程|565.73|981.57|1,114.03|1,118.42|1,091.05| |无形资产|436.82|557.28|520.90|484.51|448.13| |其他|948.82|975.81|673.19|754.19|775.78| |非流动资产合计|5,606.19|6,328.64|6,184.24|6,261.03|6,192.05| |资产总计|17,110.27|19,446.82|22,072.09|25,339.94|27,588.99| |短期借款|683.01|733.30|1,646.06|1,399.15|1,119.32| |应付票据及应付账款|1,502.16|1,792.80|1,770.36|2,602.28|2,277.77| |其他|1,539.94|1,616.30|1,432.53|1,535.30|1,547.86| |流动负债合计|3,725.12|4,142.40|4,848.95|5,536.73|4,944.96| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|171.95|161.51|130.83|158.53|155.70| |少数股东权益|0.00|7.08|7.14|7.23|7.33| |股本|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00|1,167.00| |资本公积|5,703.72|5,703.72|5,703.72|5,703.72|5,703.72| |留存收益|6,777.85|8,577.66|10,737.78|13,205.34|16,044.05| |其他| - 453.14| - 339.37| - 523.33| - 438.61| - 433.77| |股东权益合计|13,195.43|15,116.09|17,092.31|19,644.68|22,488.33| |负债和股东权益总计|17,110.27|19,446.82|22,072.09|25,339.94|27,588.99| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|20,569.27|20,113.74|24,005.75|26,886.44|30,919.41| |营业成本|15,250.33|14,967.26|17,536.20|19,648.61|22,574.26| |营业税金及附加|3.44|4.65|5.04|5.65|6.50| |销售费用|77.39|70.02|90.26|102.17|117.49| |管理费用|772.04|688.95|1,104.26|1,129.23|1,298.62| |研发费用|290.86|309.03|372.09|416.74|494.71| |财务费用| - 64.60| - 88.55| - 165.64| - 139.72| - 117.51| |资产/信用减值损失| - 232.05| - 153.79| - 136.61| - 109.26| - 119.77| |公允价值变动收益|24.11| - 6.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|68.21|52.03|40.12|51.00|50.00| |其他|274.73|214.18|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|4,104.81|4,055.96|4,967.04|5,665.50|6,475.56| |营业外收入|2.53|2.81|3.00|4.96|4.96| |营业外支出|17.31|22.65|30.00|38.00|34.00| |利润总额|4,090.03|4,036.12|4,940.04|5,632.46|6,446.53| |所得税|862.00|835.91|1,099.06|1,244.77|1,398.90| |净利润|3,228.02|3,200.21|3,840.98|4,387.69|5,047.63| |少数股东损益|0.00|0.00|0.10|0.16|0.18| |归属于母公司净利润|3,228.02|3,200.21|3,840.87|4,387.53|5,047.45| |每股收益（元）|2.77|2.74|3.29|3.76|4.33| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入增长率|17.74%| - 2.21%|19.35%|12.00%|15.00%| |营业利润增长率|10.89%| - 1.19%|22.46%|14.06%|14.30%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|16.63%| - 0.86%|20.02%|14.23%|15.04%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|25.86%|25.59%|26.95%|26.92%|26.99%| |净利率|15.69%|15.91%|16.00%|16.32%|16.32%| |ROE|24.46%|21.18%|22.48%|22.34%|22.45%| |ROIC|53.91%|42.72%|42.24%|55.76%|45.20%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|22.88%|22.27%|22.56%|22.48%|18.49%| |净负债率| - 21.88%| - 20.43%| - 37.94%| - 28.83%| - 45.64%| |流动比率|3.07|3.15|3.28|3.45|4.33| |速动比率|2.42|2.49|2.70|2.73|3.60| |