报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5][7] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年两会《政府工作报告》首次增加“深海科技”，海工装备建造孕育新机会 [1] - 2024年公司营业收入299.54亿，同比降2.59%，归母净利润21.61亿元，同比增33.38%，净利率7.3%（同比增2pct），主要因降本增效、其他收益增加、计提信用减值减少 [2] - 2024新签订单约302亿元，同比降11%，在手订单约400亿，同比几乎持平，国内毛利率提升为13%，同比增3.6pct，海外毛利率为9.1%，同比降7pct [3] - 2024年派发现金约8.9亿元，占2024年度归母净利润的41.12%，分红比例相比2023年持续提升 [4] - 受益深海景气度提升，调整2025/2026/2027年归母净利润预测为25/29/31亿，当前股价对应PE分别9.7/8.5/7.7倍 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|30,752.04|29,954.42|31,973.28|32,612.75|32,612.75| |增长率(%)|4.75|(2.59)|6.74|2.00|0.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,519.36|4,688.86|4,523.38|5,037.17|5,373.63| |净利润(百万元)|1,620.51|2,161.40|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |增长率(%)|11.19|33.38|16.10|13.95|9.94| |EPS(元/股)|0.37|0.49|0.57|0.65|0.71| |市盈率(P/E)|15.01|11.25|9.69|8.50|7.73| |市净率(P/B)|0.98|0.93|0.87|0.82|0.77| |市销率(P/S)|0.79|0.81|0.76|0.75|0.75| |EV/EBITDA|2.58|1.42|1.47|0.67|0.07| [6] 基本数据 - A股总股本4,421.35百万股，流通A股股本4,421.35百万股，A股总市值23,610.03百万元，流通A股市值23,610.03百万元 [8] - 每股净资产5.86元，资产负债率41.59%，一年内最高/最低股价6.97/4.75元 [8] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|4,320.81|6,067.04|6,346.21|11,223.86|13,532.68| |应收票据及应收账款|6,147.40|7,565.75|4,868.30|2,378.98|4,868.30| |预付账款|407.45|958.45|408.68|961.61|392.56| |存货|982.79|754.10|1,074.16|758.33|1,052.60| |其他|9,926.14|10,773.76|14,893.15|14,800.24|14,690.43| |流动资产合计|21,784.60|26,119.11|27,590.50|30,123.02|34,536.56| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|12,817.58|12,446.87|11,045.82|9,644.77|8,243.73| |在建工程|466.52|593.30|793.30|993.30|1,193.30| |无形资产|2,235.80|2,172.12|2,081.97|1,991.82|1,901.68| |其他|3,135.05|3,998.94|3,453.68|2,687.54|3,170.72| |非流动资产合计|18,654.95|19,211.23|17,374.78|15,317.44|14,509.42| |资产总计|43,251.66|48,230.88|44,965.28|45,440.46|49,045.98| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|300.00|1,300.00|900.00| |应付票据及应付账款|12,528.76|13,260.23|11,323.68|7,156.88|11,106.26| |其他|2,093.61|2,846.45|2,328.08|4,172.18|2,285.04| |流动负债合计|14,622.37|16,106.68|13,951.75|12,629.06|14,291.30| |长期借款|220.01|130.00|436.00|436.00|436.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|624.52|1,400.91|740.12|844.31|902.47| |少数股东权益|1,983.76|2,008.66|2,010.31|2,011.69|2,013.21| |股本|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35| |资本公积|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02| |留存收益|16,026.70|17,538.16|19,043.83|20,759.55|22,645.85| |其他|98.52|58.99|113.89|90.47|87.78| |股东权益合计|26,778.35|28,275.18|29,837.41|31,531.09|33,416.22| |负债和股东权益总计|43,251.66|48,230.88|44,965.28|45,440.46|49,045.98| [13] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|30,752.04|29,954.42|31,973.28|32,612.75|32,612.75| |营业成本|27,446.26|26,274.80|27,656.89|27,720.84|27,394.71| |营业税金及附加|142.13|139.52|148.93|146.76|156.54| |销售费用|20.63|34.44|41.57|48.92|48.92| |管理费用|322.62|360.60|328.00|358.74|326.13| |研发费用|1,186.28|1,227.34|1,214.98|1,239.28|1,239.28| |财务费用|(56.71)|(146.04)|(60.75)|6.02|(13.19)| |资产/信用减值损失|(243.22)|(28.25)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |公允价值变动收益|113.51|106.97|24.00|22.50|0.00| |投资净收益|262.32|201.54|425.27|425.27|435.27| |其他|(344.96)|(853.09)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,903.17|2,636.58|3,092.93|3,539.96|3,895.62| |营业外收入|36.23|51.06|50.00|40.00|40.00| |营业外支出|27.46|9.99|2.67|2.67|2.67| |利润总额|1,911.94|2,677.66|3,140.26|3,577.30|3,932.96| |所得税|281.60|491.36|628.05|715.46|786.59| |净利润|1,630.34|2,186.29|2,512.21|2,861.84|3,146.37| |少数股东损益|9.83|24.90|2.76|2.30|2.53| |归属于母公司净利润|1,620.51|2,161.40|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |每股收益（元）|0.37|0.49|0.57|0.65|0.71| [13] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|1,630.34|2,186.29|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |折旧摊销|1,374.30|1,317.40|1,491.19|1,491.19|1,491.19| |财务费用|(17.93)|(42.52)|(60.75)|6.02|(13.19)| |投资损失|(262.32)|(201.54)|(425.27)|(425.27)|(435.27)| |营运资金变动|158.71|757.69|(2,161.03)|1,037.76|(637.48)| |其它|2,241.83|(167.07)|26.76|24.80|2.53| |经营活动现金流|5,124.92|3,850.25|1,380.37|4,994.04|3,551.63| |资本支出|637.06|124.91|860.80|95.81|141.84| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(2,587.04)|(3,229.57)|(1,173.45)|(38.02)|263.39| |投资活动现金流|(1,949.98)|(3,104.66)|(312.65)|57.79|405.23| |债权融资|(456.27)|507.67|161.44|993.98|(386.81)| |股权融资|(735.60)|(39.53)|(949.98)|(1,168.16)|(1,261.23)| |其他|140.09|(1,243.77)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(1,051.77)|(775.63)|(788.54)|(174.18)|(1,648.04)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|2,123.18|(30.04)|279.17|4,877.65|2,308.82| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|4.75%|-2.59%|6.74%|2.00%|0.00%| |营业利润|11.10%|38.54%|17.31%|14.45%|10.05%| |归属于母公司净利润|11.19%|33.38%|16.10%|13.