报告公司投资评级 - 行业为煤炭/煤炭开采，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 中煤能源净利润表现稳定，2024年营业收入1893.99亿元，同比-1.9%；归母净利润193.23亿元，同比-1.1%；经营性现金流净额341.40亿元，同比-20.5% [1] - 煤炭业务稳定增长，成本控制能力较强，2024年煤炭业务营业收入1607.12亿元，同比-1.2%，商品煤产量1.3757亿吨，同比+2.5%，自产商品煤单位销售成本281.73元/吨，同比-8.2% [2] - 煤化工业务受益于煤价下跌，单位销售成本有不同幅度减少，2024年营业收入205.18亿元，同比-4.1%，产品产量569万吨，同比-5.7% [3] - 公司对股东回报重视度较高，2024年度现金分红金额约63.55亿元，分红支付率约35%，还派发特别分红15亿元，全年共派发现金分红103亿元 [4] - 考虑煤价下行风险，将2025 - 2026年归母净利润预测调整至175/177亿元，新增2027年预测182亿元，对应EPS分别为1.32/1.34/1.37元/股，维持“增持”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|192,968.83|189,398.75|195,965.93|198,418.75|198,507.85| |增长率(%)|(12.52)|(1.85)|3.47|1.25|0.04| |EBITDA(百万元)|48,337.40|45,572.55|44,265.80|45,131.91|46,396.16| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|19,534.05|19,322.94|17,466.94|17,730.27|18,158.44| |增长率(%)|7.09|(1.08)|(9.61)|1.51|2.41| |EPS(元/股)|1.47|1.46|1.32|1.34|1.37| |市盈率(P/E)|6.94|7.02|7.77|7.65|7.47| |市净率(P/B)|0.94|0.89|0.82|0.76|0.71| |市销率(P/S)|0.70|0.72|0.69|0.68|0.68| |EV/EBITDA|2.73|3.57|3.50|3.05|3.12| [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|91,542.75|84,353.15|83,583.22|103,744.62|97,061.24| |应收票据及应收账款|7,492.78|8,492.30|4,572.09|8,655.82|4,578.03| |预付账款|2,471.45|2,314.01|1,082.73|2,356.52|1,071.05| |存货|8,734.99|7,743.35|9,240.36|7,955.93|9,181.91| |其他|7,090.00|7,773.25|11,020.22|11,009.61|10,062.93| |流动资产合计|117,331.97|110,676.06|109,498.63|133,722.51|121,955.16| |长期股权投资|30,957.73|31,810.95|32,810.95|33,810.95|34,810.95| |固定资产|116,047.95|121,975.58|124,764.97|126,954.36|128,543.75| |在建工程|11,223.38|18,203.17|26,203.17|34,203.17|42,203.17| |无形资产|55,637.93|54,654.18|52,941.72|51,229.26|49,516.79| |其他|15,824.71|18,255.10|14,028.31|14,944.32|15,685.31| |非流动资产合计|229,691.70|244,898.99|250,749.13|261,142.06|270,759.98| |资产总计|349,359.92|357,964.56|360,247.76|394,864.57|392,715.13| |短期借款|122.60|1,062.46|205.40|205.40|205.40| |应付票据及应付账款|26,737.86|27,040.70|15,418.58|27,572.15|15,272.47| |其他|66,257.29|70,663.98|67,896.40|74,804.55|69,141.86| |流动负债合计|93,117.74|98,767.14|83,520.38|102,582.09|84,619.73| |长期借款|42,369.25|40,345.76|39,506.50|39,506.50|39,506.50| |应付债券|7,993.02|5,494.15|10,159.57|9,155.99|8,200.68| |其他|18,057.54|17,702.52|17,575.72|17,726.14|17,765.48| |非流动负债合计|68,419.81|63,542.43|67,241.80|66,388.63|65,472.66| |负债合计|166,577.78|165,718.37|150,762.18|168,970.73|150,092.39| |少数股东权益|38,661.13|40,334.97|44,410.59|48,547.65|52,784.62| |股本|13,258.66|13,258.66|13,258.66|13,258.66|13,258.66| |资本公积|39,059.91|39,378.19|39,378.19|39,378.19|39,378.19| |留存收益|83,841.58|92,767.37|104,994.23|117,405.42|130,116.32| |其他|7,960.86|6,507.00|7,443.93|7,303.93|7,084.95| |股东权益合计|182,782.14|192,246.18|209,485.59|225,893.84|242,622.74| |负债和股东权益总计|349,359.92|357,964.56|360,247.76|394,864.57|392,715.13| [10] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|192,968.83|189,398.75|195,965.93|198,418.75|198,507.85| |营业成本|144,595.34|142,278.75|152,853.43|154,766.62|154,240.60| |营业税金及附加|7,815.61|8,114.86|6,980.11|7,067.48|7,070.65| |销售费用|1,049.52|1,077.84|825.14|835.47|835.84| |管理费用|5,452.30|5,512.28|4,661.04|4,719.38|4,721.50| |研发费用|916.19|801.05|587.90|595.26|595.52| |财务费用|2,994.93|2,388.35|2,444.15|2,373.95|2,362.72| |资产/信用减值损失|(346.10)|(631.39)|(550.00)|(550.00)|(550.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|3,004.65|2,564.18|2,784.42|2,674.30|2,729.36| |其他|(5,613.05)|(4,192.61)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|33,099.45|31,485.45|29,848.58|30,184.88|30,860.36| |营业外收入|129.07|205.45|100.00|100.00|100.00| |营业外支出|179.79|111.27|100.00|100.00|100.00| |利润总额|33,048.73|31,579.63|29,848.58|30,184.88|30,860.36| |所得税|7,299.93|6,625.60|6,559.33|6,544.52|6,649.11| |净利润|25,748.80|24,954.03|23,289.26|23,640.36|24,211.25| |少数股东损益|6,214.75|5,631.09|5,822.31|5,910.09|6,052.81| |归属于母公司净利润|19,534.05|19,322.94|17,466.94|17,730.27|18,158.44| |每股收益（元）|1.47|1.46|1.32|1.34|1.37| [10] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动|13,270.05|2,015.37|(17,152.97)|13,964.62|(11,553.25)| |长期投资|1,054.16|853.23|1,000.00|1,000.00|1,000.00| |股权融资|(7,067.78)|(4,065.75)|(6,049.85)|(7,232.11)|(7,482.35)| |净利润|25,748.80|24,954.03|17,466.94|17,730.27|18,158.44| |折旧摊销|11,055.09|10,226.24|10,923.07|11,523.07|12,123.07| |财务费用|3,008.51|2,450.65|2,444.15|2,373.95|2,362.72| |投资损失|(3,004.65)|(2,564.18)|(2,784.42)|(2,674.30)|(2,729.36)| |营运资金变动|13,270.05|2,015.37|(17,152.97)|13,964.62|(11,553.25)| |其它|(7,112.45)|(2,942.17)|5,822.31|5,910.09|6,052.81| |经营活动现金流|42,965.34|34,139.93