分组1：报告公司投资评级 - 维持吉利汽车“买入”评级 [1][8] 分组2：报告的核心观点 - 2024年四季报单季度营收725.1亿元，同比分别+29.7%/+20.1%；归母净利润35.79亿元，同环比分别+45.4%/+45.8%，扣非后股东溢利19.5亿元，符合预期 [8] - Q4业绩符合预期，营收方面总销量68.7万台，同环比分别+30.3%/+28.6%，极氪Q4营收227.0亿元，同环比分别+38.1%/+23.6%，销量7.9万辆，同环比分别+99.8%/+44.1%；毛利率2024Q4为17.3％，同环比分别+1.0/+1.8pct；费用率24Q4销售费用率/行政费用率分别为5.9%/6.7%，同比分别-1.2/-0.4pct，环比分别+1.4/+0.9pct；归母净利润35.8亿元，同环比分别+45.4%/+45.8%，极氪2024Q4净利1.15亿元，同比扭盈 [8] - 2025年公司销量目标271万辆，新能源车销量目标150万辆，极氪目标32万辆，领克目标39万辆，推进“智能吉利2025”战略布局，上调2025 - 2026年归母净利润预期至142/196亿元，预测2027年归母净利润为271亿元，对应PE分别为11/8/6倍 [8] 分组3：根据相关目录分别进行总结 盈利预测与估值 |指标|2023A|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业总收入（百万元）|179846|240194|344279|397884|475326| |同比(%)|21.06|33.56|43.33|15.57|19.46| |归母净利润（百万元）|5308|16632|14153|19599|27060| |同比(%)|0.91|213.32|(14.91)|38.48|38.07| |EPS - 最新摊薄（元/股）|0.53|1.65|1.40|1.95|2.69| |P/E（现价&最新摊薄）|29.71|9.48|11.14|8.05|5.83| [1] 市场数据 - 收盘价17.20港元，一年最低/最高价7.31/19.44港元，市净率2.00倍，港股流通市值173,296.39百万港元 [6] 基础数据 - 每股净资产8.61元，资产负债率59.71%，总股本10,075.37百万股，流通股本10,075.37百万股 [7] 三大财务预测表 资产负债表（百万元） |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |流动资产|125,321.71|213,482.73|266,221.05|338,718.13| |现金及现金等价物|40,865.00|78,926.88|110,825.16|153,143.13| |应收账款及票据|47,457.78|66,943.21|77,366.38|92,424.40| |存货|23,078.31|40,070.29|46,198.78|55,124.56| |其他流动资产|13,920.61|27,542.35|31,830.74|38,026.04| |非流动资产|104,069.95|104,133.60|103,446.49|104,200.61| |固定资产|26,383.84|23,380.61|19,308.15|16,122.33| |商誉及无形资产|28,784.73|30,906.17|33,296.53|36,241.47| |长期投资|31,424.20|32,424.20|33,424.20|34,424.20| |其他长期投资|78.80|24.23|19.23|14.23| |其他非流动资产|17,398.39|17,398.39|17,398.39|17,398.39| |资产总计|229,391.66|317,616.33|369,667.54|442,918.74| |流动负债|127,199.67|196,117.49|226,361.33|270,268.69| |短期借款|30.30|185.30|340.30|495.30| |应付账款及票据|86,440.89|144,253.06|166,315.60|198,448.40| |其他|40,728.48|51,679.13|59,705.43|71,324.99| |非流动负债|9,772.06|14,772.06|16,772.06|18,772.06| |长期借款|3,914.18|8,914.18|10,914.18|12,914.18| |其他|5,857.88|5,857.88|5,857.88|5,857.88| |负债合计|136,971.73|210,889.55|243,133.39|289,040.75| |股本|184.02|184.02|184.02|184.02| |少数股东权益|5,677.71|5,820.67|6,018.63|6,291.96| |归属母公司股东权益|86,742.23|100,906.11|120,515.51|147,586.03| |负债和股东权益|229,391.66|317,616.33|369,667.54|442,918.74| [9] 利润表（百万元） |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业总收入|240,194.27|344,279.38|397,884.22|475,325.51| |营业成本|201,993.42|288,506.12|332,631.21|396,896.80| |销售费用|13,283.00|17,213.97|18,302.67|20,439.00| |管理费用|4,896.92|8,606.98|9,151.34|10,457.16| |研发费用|10,419.24|14,804.01|15,915.37|17,587.04| |其他费用|127.25|344.28|397.88|475.33| |经营利润|9,474.44|14,804.01|21,485.75|29,470.18| |利息收入|1,242.76|1,612.98|1,183.90|1,662.38| |利息支出|550.26|389.16|555.79|671.99| |其他收益|8,236.62|(488.56)|(595.77)|(750.65)| |利润总额|18,403.55|15,539.27|21,518.09|29,709.92| |所得税|1,604.46|1,243.14|1,721.45|2,376.79| |净利润|16,799.10|14,296.13|19,796.64|27,333.12| |少数股东损益|166.70|142.96|197.97|273.33| |归属母公司净利润|16,632.40|14,153.16|19,598.68|27,059.79| [9] 现金流量表（百万元） |项目|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |经营活动现金流|26,507.43|35,826.90|32,385.18|44,390.71| |投资活动现金流|(9,131.91)|(2,541.58)|(2,096.84)|(3,566.46)| |筹资活动现金流|(13,296.53)|4,765.84|1,599.21|1,483.01| |现金净增加额|4,089.71|38,061.88|31,898.28|42,317.97| |折旧和摊销|9,393.46|1,998.68|2,173.75|2,065.06| |资本开支|(13,314.41)|(1,116.90)|(491.64)|(1,824.18)| |营运资本变动|9,316.31|18,654.37|9,263.23|13,569.88| [9] 主要财务比率 |指标|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |每股收益(元)|1.65|1.40|1.95|2.69| |每股净资产(元)|8.61|10.02|11.96|14.65| |发行在外股份(百万股)|10,075.37|10,075.37|10,075.37|10,075.37| |ROIC(%)|17.29|12.41|15.16|17.32| |ROE(%)|19.17|14.03|16.26|18.33| |毛利率(%)|15.90|16.20|16.40|16.50| |销售净利率(%)|6.92|4.11|4.93|5.69| |资产负债率(%)|59.71|66.40|65.77|65.26| |收入增长率(%)|33.56|43.33|15.57|19.46| |归母净利润增长率(%)|213.32|(14.91)|38.48|38.07| |P/E|9.48|11.14|8.05|5.83| |P/B|1.82|1.56|1.31|1.07| |EV/EBITDA|3.65|5.39|2.52|0.58| [9]