报告公司投资评级 - 行业评级为社会服务/专业服务，6个月评级维持“买入”评级 [6] 报告的核心观点 - 北京人力积极拥抱AI技术，2024年11月携手昆仑万维成立数智万维，推动人力资源行业数字化升级，深化AI技术在核心业务落地，形成技术底座和智能化运营体系，优化客户体验 [1] - 公司AI招聘产品涵盖To B和To C两大业务方向，To B业务实现多项招聘流程智能化功能，FESCO将AI应用多领域，积累五大优势赋能企业客户运营共享 [2] - 公司构建双重技术路径，开源融合先进模型，推动AI融入企业运营，结合自身研发能力深度定制，构建差异化竞争优势 [3] - 24Q3北京外企业绩超预期，归母净利2.14亿/yoy+57.7%，扣非归母净利1.33亿/yoy+40.2%；24Q1 - 3归母净利6.52亿元/yoy+1.8%，业绩承诺实现率109.74%，扣非归母净利4.13亿元/yoy+3.7%，业绩承诺实现率73.31% [4] - 基于宏观经济对人力资源市场的影响，下调2024 - 2025年利润预测，预计2024 - 2026年归母净利8.3亿元、9.5亿元、10.4亿元，对应PE为14/12/11倍，维持“买入”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|483.74|38,311.83|44,218.27|51,058.67|59,013.56| |增长率(%)|(30.62)|7819.92|15.42|15.47|15.58| |EBITDA(百万元)|(88.28)|810.71|1,271.39|1,400.87|1,535.03| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|(215.17)|547.98|827.79|948.30|1,039.91| |增长率(%)|238.59|(354.67)|51.06|14.56|9.66| |EPS(元/股)|(0.38)|0.97|1.46|1.68|1.84| |市盈率(P/E)|(54.17)|21.27|14.08|12.29|11.21| |市净率(P/B)|5.88|1.94|1.81|1.69|1.57| |市销率(P/S)|24.10|0.30|0.26|0.23|0.20| |EV/EBITDA|(68.68)|3.58|2.49|1.61|1.17| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本566.11百万股，流通A股股本366.57百万股，A股总市值11,656.26百万元，流通A股市值7,547.78百万元 [7] - 每股净资产11.27元，资产负债率57.48%，一年内最高/最低股价为23.25/12.92元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|239.21|7,791.18|8,912.91|10,040.73|10,712.83| |应收票据及应收账款|25.48|3,829.45|1,650.64|2,783.97|2,372.47| |预付账款|4.37|150.20|29.57|178.41|62.49| |存货|38.60|2.87|31.71|48.29|44.36| |其他|19.09|3,331.95|1,261.30|1,901.95|2,124.50| |流动资产合计|326.74|15,105.65|11,886.13|14,953.35|15,316.65| |长期股权投资|8.35|202.43|202.43|202.43|202.43| |固定资产|1,655.74|87.05|81.69|76.34|70.98| |在建工程|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |无形资产|31.92|91.13|61.21|31.30|1.38| |其他|777.68|872.90|474.55|523.10|593.29| |非流动资产合计|2,473.70|1,253.51|819.88|833.17|868.07| |资产总计|2,800.44|16,359.16|12,706.01|15,786.52|16,184.73| |短期借款|0.00|400.00|10.00|10.00|10.00| |应付票据及应付账款|43.01|1,532.15|576.19|2,090.21|2,542.36| |其他|500.91|7,181.17|4,535.14|5,390.33|4,552.52| |流动负债合计|543.92|9,113.32|5,121.32|7,490.53|7,104.87| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|54.73|233.19|193.19|153.19|113.19| |非流动负债合计|54.73|233.19|193.19|153.19|113.19| |负债合计|704.09|9,623.49|5,314.51|7,643.72|7,218.06| |少数股东权益|113.33|720.98|962.91|1,240.07|1,544.01| |股本|316.80|566.11|566.11|566.11|566.11| |资本公积|791.29|1,584.10|1,584.10|1,584.10|1,584.10| |留存收益|874.93|3,865.03|4,278.91|4,753.05|5,272.99| |其他|0.00|(0.54)|(0.54)|(0.54)|(0.54)| |股东权益合计|2,096.35|6,735.67|7,391.49|8,142.79|8,966.66| |负债和股东权益总计|2,800.44|16,359.16|12,706.01|15,786.52|16,184.73| [12] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|483.74|38,311.83|44,218.27|51,058.67|59,013.56| |营业成本|230.43|35,669.30|41,485.58|47,995.15|55,590.78| |营业税金及附加|34.00|417.72|88.44|102.12|118.03| |销售费用|179.02|566.21|536.91|607.60|696.36| |管理费用|234.15|992.39|884.37|995.64|1,109.45| |研发费用|0.00|204.89|36.86|42.56|49.19| |财务费用|6.26|(83.11)|(213.30)|(269.00)|(296.13)| |资产/信用减值损失|(3.96)|(52.56)|(10.00)|(10.00)|(10.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|1.10|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|(0.47)|69.54|50.00|50.00|50.00| |其他|5.20|(650.59)|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |营业利润|(200.90)|1,176.95|1,439.42|1,624.60|1,785.88| |营业外收入|1.93|7.23|20.00|50.00|50.00| |营业外支出|19.17|6.76|2.00|5.00|5.00| |利润总额|(218.14)|1,177.42|1,457.42|1,669.60|1,830.88| |所得税|(1.35)|309.11|145.74|166.96|183.09| |净利润|(216.79)|868.31|1,311.67|1,502.64|1,647.79| |少数股东损益|(1.62)|320.33|483.89|554.33|607.88| |归属于母公司净利润|(215.17)|547.98|827.79|948.30|1,039.91| |每股收益（元）|(0.38)|0.97|1.46|1.68|1.84| [12][13] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动|(5.18)|(473.52)|727.31|356.80|(166.31)| |长期投资|(1.86)|194.07|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|0.00|767.58|(655.86)|(751.34)|(823.92)| |净利润|(216.79)|868.31|827.79|948.30|1,039.91| |折旧摊销|140.85|105.32|35.27|35.27|35.27| |财务费用|6.03|36.33|(213.30)|(269.00)|(296.13)| |投资损失|0.47|(69.68)|(50.00)|(50.00)|(50.00)| |营运资金变动|(5.18)|(473.52)|727.31|356.80|(166.31)| |其它|(7.07)|177.11|483.89|554.33|607.88| |经营活动现金流|(81.68)|643.88|1,810.96|1,575.72|1,170.63| |资本支出|457.27|(1,398.61)|40.00|40.00|40.00| |长期投资|(1.86)|194.07|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(472.03)|556.47|103.33|(5.56)|(10.74)| |投资活动现金流|(16.62)|(648.07)|143.33|34.44|29.26| |债权融资|(207.75)|586.55|(176.70)|269.00|296.13| |股权融资|0.00|767.58|(655.86)|(751.34)|(823.92)| |其他|275.69|37.39|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|67.94|1,391.52|(832.56)|(482.34)|(527.79)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(30.36)|1,387.34|1,121.73|1,127.82|672.10| [12][14] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|-30.62%|7819.92%|15.42%|15.47%|15.58%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|210.90%|-685.84%|22.30%|12.86%|9.93%