报告公司投资评级 - 行业为国防军工/军工电子Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2024年年报显示营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润均实现稳增长，Q4营收、业绩出现明显拐点，下游订单或显著修复，行业高景气度依旧 [1] - 2024年期间费用率相对稳定，存货占营收比可控，资产周转和销售状况良好 [2] - 公司加速布局新兴产业，推动业务规模增长，未来业绩有望保持稳定增长 [2][3] - 考虑公司拓展新兴产业布局及业绩环比改善，合理下调2025 - 2026年归母净利润预期，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|20,074.44|20,685.53|24,023.31|28,036.69|33,032.58| |增长率(%)|26.75|3.04|16.14|16.71|17.82| |EBITDA(百万元)|6,270.05|6,393.01|5,138.55|5,744.79|6,579.25| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,339.29|3,354.29|4,047.86|4,753.37|5,632.08| |增长率(%)|22.90|0.45|20.68|17.43|18.49| |EPS(元/股)|1.58|1.58|1.91|2.24|2.66| |市盈率(P/E)|26.63|26.51|21.95|18.69|15.78| |市净率(P/B)|4.34|3.77|3.38|2.89|2.49| |市销率(P/S)|4.43|4.30|3.70|3.17|2.69| |EV/EBITDA|11.97|11.94|14.93|9.00|8.56| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,118.27百万股，流通A股股本2,080.71百万股，A股总市值88,861.47百万元，流通A股市值87,285.74百万元 [6] - 每股净资产11.14元，资产负债率38.78%，一年内最高/最低股价47.89/31.18元 [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |股东权益合计(百万元)|22,014.45|25,252.83|28,180.58|32,884.40|38,096.97| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|1,057.20|1,277.52|1,013.43|1,034.53|1,010.98| |负债合计(百万元)|13,555.46|15,993.98|13,953.80|22,360.07|18,551.39| |股本(百万元)|2,120.05|2,118.27|2,118.27|2,118.27|2,118.27| |净利润(百万元)|3,535.76|3,547.92|4,047.86|4,753.37|5,632.08| |折旧摊销(百万元)|403.16|553.55|643.07|653.07|663.07| |财务费用(百万元)|32.08|28.17|(123.49)|(318.11)|(448.02)| |投资损失(百万元)|(175.03)|(54.67)|(100.91)|(103.89)|(108.63)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|(1,358.09)|(2,351.78)|2,183.38|20,141.73|(10,057.65)| |其它(百万元)|649.93|426.77|294.50|290.90|328.24| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|3,087.81|2,149.96|6,944.40|25,417.06|(3,990.90)| |资本支出(百万元)|2,761.18|2,576.97|209.57|178.90|223.56| |长期投资(百万元)|133.01|(21.57)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|(5,233.04)|(4,017.60)|(307.60)|(274.91)|(315.07)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(2,338.85)|(1,462.20)|(98.03)|(96.01)|(91.52)| |债权融资(百万元)|207.49|48.08|148.38|359.61|336.26| |股权融资(百万元)|(620.69)|1,018.83|(1,374.96)|(343.24)|(759.25)| |其他(百万元)|(389.91)|(2,452.21)|(0.00)|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(803.11)|(1,385.30)|(1,226.58)|16.37|(422.99)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(54.14)|(697.54)|5,619.79|25,337.43|(4,505.41)| [9] 资产负债表和利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|9,886.48|9,164.81|14,784.60|40,122.03|35,616.62| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|13,179.17|16,734.97|10,799.28|1,661.48|11,184.53| |预付账款(百万元)|75.82|96.93|102.89|159.22|135.29| |存货(百万元)|4,189.74|4,699.39|6,559.48|3,832.93|676.23| |其他(百万元)|268.95|347.10|322.94|340.79|343.87| |流动资产合计(百万元)|27,600.17|31,043.20|32,569.19|46,116.44|47,956.54| |长期股权投资(百万元)|370.58|349.00|349.00|349.00|349.00| |固定资产(百万元)|4,473.37|6,493.10|6,080.64|5,658.18|5,225.72| |在建工程(百万元)|1,793.05|1,890.08|1,890.08|1,890.08|1,890.08| |无形资产(百万元)|784.31|776.63|746.02|715.42|684.81| |其他(百万元)|548.43|694.81|499.45|515.36|542.21| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|7,969.74|10,203.62|9,565.19|9,128.03|8,691.82| |资产总计(百万元)|35,569.90|41,246.81|42,134.38|55,244.47|56,648.36| |短期借款(百万元)|606.50|375.58|500.00|500.00|500.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|8,593.98|11,887.58|7,534.03|16,886.22|11,492.69| |其他(百万元)|3,297.78|2,453.30|4,906.34|3,939.32|5,547.72| |流动负债合计(百万元)|12,498.26|14,716.46|12,940.36|21,325.54|17,540.41| |长期借款(百万元)|584.25|754.52|500.00|500.00|500.00| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|472.95|523.00|513.43|534.53|510.98| |少数股东权益(百万元)|1,518.16|1,655.22|1,861.54|2,127.26|2,418.48| |股本(百万元)|2,120.05|2,118.27|2,118.27|2,118.27|2,118.27| |资本公积(百万元)|7,383.88|7,705.23|7,705.23|7,705.23|7,705.23| |留存收益(百万元)|12,458.97|14,541.46|17,818.48|22,119.26|26,946.96| |其他(百万元)|(1,466.60)|(767.35)|(1,322.95)|(1,185.63)|(1,091.97)| |股东权益合计(百万元)|22,014.45|25,252.83|28,180.58|32,884.40|38,096.97| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|35,569.90|41,246.81|42,134.38|55,244.47|56,648.36| |营业收入(百万元)|20,074.44|20,685.53|24,023.31|28,036.69|33,032.58| |营业成本(百万元)|12,455.56|13,113.57|14,804.15|17,248.17|20,291.21| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|116.70|135.88|139.34|165.42|204.80| |销售费用(百万元)|533.69|487.87|600.58|754.19|901.79| |管理费用(百万元)|1,332.86|1,234.58|1,585.54|1,886.87|2,246.22| |研发费用(百万元)|2,197.26|2,251.72|2,636.56|3,089.64|3,660.01| |财务费用(百万元)|(150.84)|(96.17)|(123.49)|(318.11)|(448.02)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(177.93)|(190.02)|(164.25)|(180.43)|(178.16)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|(13.63)|(1.83)|39.65|(2.79)|(11.50)| |投资净收益(百万元)|175.03|54.67|100.91|103.89|108.63| |其他(百万元)|113.58|308.46|154.82|170.24|186.77| |营业利润(百万元)|3,686.26|3,729.37|4,511.77|5,301.43|6,282.32| |营业外收入(百万元)|51.67|53.35|47.81|51.01|50.96| |营业外支出(百万元)|4.16|18.53|13.53|13.50|12.43| |利润总额(百万元)|3,733.77|3,764.19|4,546.05|5,338.95|6,320.85| |所得税(百万元)|198.00|216.27|243.35|291.89|349.03| |净利润(百万元)|3,535.76|3,547.92|4,302.71|5,047.06|5,971.82| |少数股东损益(百万元)|196.47|193.