报告公司投资评级 - 行业为计算机/软件开发，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），当前价格107.11元 [6] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2024年年报显示营收75.19亿元，归母净利润1.96亿元，云计算业务同比增长9.51%达33.84亿，毛利率下降3.66pct至61.47% [1] - 现金流8亿超预期，体现公司优异经营和财务管理能力以及战略定力，经营现金流达8.12亿，单四季度流入超15亿 [1] - 公司“长期主义”聚焦产品价值创新收获颇丰，合同负债同比增长20.35%，企业收入同比增长1.8%，预计大客户增长重要，安全产品壁垒持续提升 [2] - EDS+AICP算力平台有望驱动公司云业务持续快速增长，相关业务Q2有望放量，EDS市场份额有望提升 [3] - 凭借DeepSeek赋能及安全业务推动上调盈利预测，预计2025 - 2027年收入为82.72/95.12/104.38亿元，归母净利润达4.06/7.45/8.58亿元，经营现金流达13.5/19.07/20.68亿元 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|7,662.17|7,519.76|8,271.73|9,512.49|10,438.06| |增长率(%)|3.36|(1.86)|10.00|15.00|9.73| |EBITDA(百万元)|206.00|176.00|425.61|733.61|869.61| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|197.83|196.87|406.13|744.67|857.81| |增长率(%)|1.89|(0.49)|106.30|83.36|15.19| |EPS(元/股)|0.47|0.47|0.96|1.77|2.03| |市盈率(P/E)|228.42|229.53|111.26|60.68|52.68| |市净率(P/B)|5.13|4.93|4.72|4.63|4.39| |市销率(P/S)|5.90|6.01|5.46|4.75|4.33| |EV/EBITDA|100.51|82.40|7.10|6.90|6.70| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本421.88百万股，流通A股股本278.23百万股，A股总市值45,187.70百万元，流通A股市值29,801.05百万元 [7] - 每股净资产21.49元，资产负债率39.77%，一年内最高/最低142.00/42.70元 [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|1,752.27|1,826.62|620.17|642.01|644.46| |负债合计|6,221.32|6,054.32|5,671.28|7,427.80|8,356.38| |股本|419.79|421.86|421.88|421.88|421.88| |股东权益合计|8,807.59|9,168.10|9,574.46|10,356.55|11,189.34| |营运资金变动|(1,462.99)|256.86|881.27|1,098.42|1,127.31| |长期投资|16.22|63.64|78.50|68.48|99.90| |股权融资|866.39|100.03|0.23|37.42|(25.02)| [12] 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|737.20|525.28|827.17|3,090.31|5,051.82| |应收票据及应收账款|903.38|825.93|944.04|913.11|730.93| |预付账款|29.50|28.26|31.03|36.65|37.65| |存货|382.85|340.34|380.57|458.01|459.93| |其他|4,899.64|5,184.27|5,290.52|5,202.14|5,337.58| |流动资产合计|6,952.56|6,904.08|7,473.34|9,700.21|11,617.91| |长期股权投资|409.88|473.52|552.02|552.02|552.02| |固定资产|312.21|837.14|755.36|644.58|515.30| |在建工程|491.94|292.41|372.41|422.41|487.41| |无形资产|271.24|266.71|258.88|251.04|243.21| |其他|6,591.08|6,448.55|5,833.73|6,214.09|6,129.87| |非流动资产合计|8,076.35|8,318.33|7,772.40|8,084.15|7,927.81| |资产总计|15,028.91|15,222.42|15,245.74|17,784.35|19,545.72| |短期借款|825.53|200.14|312.20|568.20|479.50| |应付票据及应付账款|975.33|907.12|1,061.30|1,197.35|1,274.15| |其他|1,321.66|1,499.82|3,677.62|5,020.24|5,958.27| |流动负债合计|3,122.52|2,607.08|5,051.11|6,785.79|7,711.92| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|1,117.61|1,155.41|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|634.66|671.21|620.17|642.01|644.46| |少数股东权益|2.33|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股本|419.79|421.86|421.88|421.88|421.88| |资本公积|5,184.15|5,394.80|5,394.80|5,394.80|5,394.80| |留存收益|3,129.21|3,392.02|3,798.16|4,542.82|5,400.63| |其他|72.11|(40.59)|(40.37)|(2.95)|(27.97)| |股东权益合计|8,807.59|9,168.10|9,574.46|10,356.55|11,189.34| |负债和股东权益总计|15,028.91|15,222.42|15,245.74|17,784.35|19,545.72| [13] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|7,662.17|7,519.76|8,271.73|9,512.49|10,438.06| |营业成本|2,671.53|2,897.65|2,971.21|3,409.28|3,730.56| |营业税金及附加|72.89|66.38|79.41|91.32|100.21| |销售费用|2,701.93|2,506.62|2,392.18|2,497.98|2,685.71| |管理费用|371.58|381.55|396.22|402.38|481.19| |研发费用|2,266.20|2,117.87|2,216.82|2,547.45|2,772.35| |财务费用|(211.62)|(198.15)|(175.00)|(175.00)|(175.00)| |资产/信用减值损失|(28.23)|(4.15)|(24.70)|(17.09)|(13.59)| |公允价值变动收益|1.44|5.22|18.50|25.50|40.00| |投资净收益|72.46|111.80|70.49|84.92|89.07| |其他|(464.97)|(576.30)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|208.96|211.27|455.18|832.42|958.52| |营业外收入|6.45|4.49|5.47|4.98|5.22| |营业外支出|11.70|11.41|9.39|9.99|10.62| |利润总额|203.71|204.34|451.26|827.41|953.12| |所得税|5.04|7.65|45.13|82.74|95.31| |净利润|198.68|196.70|406.13|744.67|857.81| |少数股东损益|0.85|(0.17)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |归属于母公司净利润|197.83|196.87|406.13|744.67|857.81| |每股收益（元）|0.47|0.47|0.96|1.77|2.03| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|3.36%|-1.86%|10.00%|15.00%|9.73%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|2.45%|1.11%|115.44%|82.88%|15.15%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|1.89%|-0.49%|106.30%|83.36%|15.19%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|65.13%|61.47%|64.08%|64.16%|64.26%| |获利能力 - 净利率|2.58%|2.62%|4.91%|7.83%|8.22%| |获利能力 - ROE|2.25%|2.15%|4.24%|7.19%|7.67%| |获利能力 - ROIC|0.31%|-1.51%|-46.29%|-65.80%|-29.65%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|41.40%|39.77%|37.20%|41.77%|42.75%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率|14.29%|9.57%|-4.91%|-23.94%|-40.50%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|1.56|1.63|1.48|1.43|1.51| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|1.47|1.55|1.40|1.36|1.45| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|8.89|8.70|9.35|10.24|12.70| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|23.35|20.80|22.95|22.69|22.74| |营运能力 - 总资产周转率|0.56|0.50|0.54|0.58|0.56| |每股指标 - 每股收益|0.47|0.47|0.96|1.77|2.03| |每股指标 - 每股经营现金流|2.24|1.92|3.20|4.52|4.90| |每股指标 - 每股净资产|20.87|21.73|22.69|24.55|26.52| |估值比率 - 市盈率|228.42|229.53|111.26|60.68|52.68| |估值比率 - 市净率|5.13|4.9