报告公司投资评级 - 行业为国防军工/航空装备Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2024年年报显示营收478.8亿元，YoY+9.5%；归母净利润8.6亿元，YoY - 39.5%；扣非归母净利润7.9亿元，YoY - 35.2%，收入基本符合预期，归母净利润低于预期，主要因研发和财务费用增加、投资收益减少 [1] - 4Q24营收219.2亿元，YoY+25.8%；归母净利润1.3亿元，YoY - 65.7%，2024年综合毛利率10.1%，同比降1.03ppt；净利率2.1%，同比降1.42ppt，毛利率下降因航空发动机及衍生产品毛利率下降、新产品成熟度待提升 [2] - 2024年期间费用率6.9%，同比增0.45ppt，其中销售费用率降、管理费用率降、研发费用率升、财务费用率升 [2] - 分产品看，航空发动机及衍生产品收入增、毛利率降，外贸出口转包业务收入和毛利率均升，非航空产品及其他业务收入降、毛利率降；分子公司看，黎明公司营收增、利润总额降，南方公司营收降、利润总额大幅降，黎阳动力营收和利润总额均升 [3] - 截至24Q4末，应收账款及票据、存货增长，合同负债减少，经营活动净现金流为负且上年同期也为负；公司深度参与国产商用发动机研制，有望受益国产大飞机产业发展，2024年南方公司签超100亿通用航空动力产品意向采购合同 [3] - 考虑下游需求节奏变化，调整公司2025 - 2027年营业收入和归母净利润预测值，维持“买入”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|43,733.88|47,879.70|47,688.18|53,315.39|58,966.82| |增长率(%)|17.89|9.48|-0.40|11.80|10.60| |EBITDA(百万元)|5,139.96|5,240.80|4,378.42|4,721.57|5,049.23| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,421.42|860.29|690.40|888.09|1,170.22| |增长率(%)|12.12|-39.48|-19.75|28.63|31.77| |EPS(元/股)|0.53|0.32|0.26|0.33|0.44| |市盈率(P/E)|61.30|101.29|126.21|98.12|74.46| |市净率(P/B)|2.21|2.19|2.16|2.13|2.08| |市销率(P/S)|1.99|1.82|1.83|1.63|1.48| |EV/EBITDA|20.09|24.35|23.26|20.89|18.75| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,665.59百万股，流通A股股本2,665.12百万股，A股总市值87,138.28百万元，流通A股市值87,122.93百万元 [7] - 每股净资产14.96元，资产负债率60.74%，一年内最高/最低48.72/31.70元 [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|-2,226.59|-206.12|-800.00|-800.00|-800.00| |负债合计|55,939.90|70,403.83|52,458.44|71,681.68|56,408.67| |股本|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59| |股东权益合计|43,855.65|45,509.46|46,044.32|46,709.20|47,585.30| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|-11,792.04|-16,582.29|1,206.21|2,160.28|2,957.54| |长期投资|-28.90|120.33|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|-413.18|-12.49|-203.54|-284.95|-375.47| [11] 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|8,382.08|7,729.66|3,815.05|4,265.23|4,717.35| |应收票据及应收账款|26,159.12|40,608.32|25,625.27|45,461.91|29,884.58| |预付账款|3,985.03|3,094.53|4,078.04|3,146.80|3,948.42| |存货|29,662.90|31,699.48|32,853.60|34,043.04|33,952.86| |其他|754.60|765.90|761.07|544.86|773.41| |流动资产合计|68,943.74|83,897.88|67,133.03|87,461.85|73,276.61| |长期股权投资|2,448.02|2,568.35|2,568.35|2,568.35|2,568.35| |固定资产|21,058.62|22,537.54|22,667.73|22,736.18|22,825.15| |在建工程|2,449.13|2,220.34|1,694.24|1,465.97|1,446.18| |无形资产|2,985.36|2,912.20|2,635.30|2,358.40|2,081.50| |其他|1,910.69|1,776.98|1,804.10|1,800.14|1,796.18| |非流动资产合计|30,851.81|32,015.42|31,369.72|30,929.04|30,717.36| |资产总计|99,795.55|115,913.30|98,502.75|118,390.88|103,993.97| |短期借款|8,514.24|19,730.59|14,015.27|11,191.75|7,626.50| |应付票据及应付账款|32,584.97|41,582.05|18,189.32|48,707.32|25,201.26| |其他|5,191.00|4,811.41|21,053.84|12,582.61|24,380.91| |流动负债合计|46,290.22|66,124.05|53,258.44|72,481.68|57,208.67| |长期借款|572.93|822.24|200.00|200.00|200.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|-2,799.51|-1,028.35|-1,000.00|-1,000.00|-1,000.00| |少数股东权益|4,400.61|5,633.12|5,666.72|5,709.94|5,766.88| |股本|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59|2,665.59| |资本公积|27,447.81|27,452.00|27,452.00|27,452.00|27,452.00| |留存收益|9,592.93|10,026.73|10,510.01|11,131.67|11,950.83| |其他|-251.29|-267.97|-250.00|-250.00|-250.00| |股东权益合计|43,855.65|45,509.46|46,044.32|46,709.20|47,585.30| |负债和股东权益总计|99,795.55|115,913.30|98,502.75|118,390.88|103,993.97| [12] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|43,733.88|47,879.70|47,688.18|53,315.39|58,966.82| |营业成本|38,886.08|43,063.74|43,035.39|48,165.58|53,214.18| |营业税金及附加|268.18|265.44|264.38|295.58|326.91| |销售费用|474.33|293.40|292.23|319.89|353.80| |管理费用|1,567.01|1,581.29|1,574.96|1,732.75|1,886.94| |研发费用|553.45|995.23|915.61|1,039.65|1,208.82| |财务费用|247.85|456.79|561.51|414.67|303.58| |资产/信用减值损失|-480.67|-460.66|-420.00|-482.91|-465.35| |公允价值变动收益|-145.00|-52.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|407.03|164.55|160.00|160.00|160.00| |其他|270.86|489.04|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,684.76|1,082.88|784.09|1,024.36|1,367.25| |营业外收入|63.12|84.67|85.00|85.00|85.00| |营业外支出|39.32|31.83|30.00|30.00|30.00| |利润总额|1,708.57|1,135.72|839.09|1,079.36|1,422.25| |所得税|189.56|152.44|100.69|129.52|170.67| |净利润|1,519.01|983.29|738.40|949.83|1,251.58| |少数股东损益|97.59|123.00|48.00|61.74|81.35| |归属于母公司净利润|1,421.42|860.29|690.40|888.09|1,170.22| |每股收益（元）|0.53|0.32|0.26|0.33|0.44| [12] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|17.89%|9.48%|-0.40%|11.80%|10.60%| |营业利润|11.18%|-35.73%|-27.59%|30.64%|33.47%| |归属于母公司净利润|12.12%|-39.48%|-19.75%|28.63%|31.77%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|11.08%|10.06%|9.76%|9.66%|9.76%| |净利率|3.25%|1.80%|1.45%|1.67%|1.98%| |ROE|3.60%|2.16%|1.71%|2.17%|2.80%| |ROIC|5.18%|3.10%|2.08%|2.30%|2.80%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|5