报告公司投资评级 - 行业为国防军工/航空装备Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 中航沈飞2024年报显示全年营收428.4亿，YoY -7.4%；归母净利润33.9亿元，YoY +12.9%；扣非归母净利润33.7亿元，YoY +15.9%，收入下降受外部因素影响，净利润提升得益于产品毛利率提升和费用管控增强 [1] - 24Q4单季度收入同比大增51%，全年利润率水平提升，2024年全年毛利率和净利率同比增加，公司内部挖潜等举措有成效，且深化改革取得进展 [1] - 2024年公司期间费用率为近5年最低，费用端各部分有不同变化，应收账款等项目有相应增减，经营活动净现金流有所改善 [2] - 公司二期股权激励成功解锁，分产品看航空制造业和其他业务收入有不同表现，子公司吉航公司业绩大幅增长，公司作为“链主”企业推进改革和产业升级，开拓军贸市场有望助力发展 [3] - 公司作为歼击机龙头有望受益国防装备发展需求，根据下游需求节奏调整2025 - 2027年营收和归母净利润预测值，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|46,247.78|42,837.24|49,284.24|57,194.36|66,202.47| |增长率(%)|11.18|(7.37)|15.05|16.05|15.75| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,802.36|5,289.04|5,415.45|6,256.07|7,148.26| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,007.15|3,393.97|3,826.74|4,560.40|5,382.85| |增长率(%)|30.47|12.86|12.75|19.17|18.03| |EPS(元/股)|1.09|1.23|1.39|1.65|1.95| |市盈率(P/E)|39.35|34.86|30.92|25.95|21.98| |市净率(P/B)|7.84|6.93|5.89|5.08|4.37| |市销率(P/S)|2.56|2.76|2.40|2.07|1.79| |EV/EBITDA|20.86|24.50|18.92|14.71|11.31| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,755.70百万股，流通A股股本2,744.74百万股，A股总市值118,329.74百万元，流通A股市值117,859.00百万元，每股净资产6.20元，资产负债率69.07%，一年内最高/最低61.85/34.27元 [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |股东权益合计(百万元)|16,257.61|19,050.84|22,064.73|25,258.60|29,028.49| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|3,605.78|4,282.83|3,500.00|3,700.00|3,900.00| |负债合计(百万元)|39,208.83|42,538.99|42,636.02|56,461.92|60,764.16| |股本(百万股)|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70| |现金流量表(百万元)：净利润|3,009.19|3,412.90|3,826.74|4,560.40|5,382.85| |折旧摊销|835.85|1,041.49|1,282.35|1,367.78|1,453.33| |财务费用|3.94|4.59|(144.65)|(232.89)|(372.01)| |投资损失|(16.12)|(2.59)|(10.00)|(10.00)|(10.00)| |营运资金变动|(8,186.08)|(8,629.08)|3,642.06|7,310.82|7,504.49| |其它|(39.86)|430.78|1.91|2.28|2.69| |经营活动现金流|(4,393.06)|(3,741.91)|8,598.41|12,998.38|13,961.35| |资本支出|(1,200.34)|2,536.79|2,732.83|1,300.00|1,400.00| |长期投资|160.03|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,143.73)|(4,029.85)|(4,672.83)|(2,790.00)|(2,990.00)| |投资活动现金流|(2,184.05)|(1,492.05)|(1,940.00)|(1,490.00)|(1,590.00)| |债权融资|280.49|188.15|147.32|242.89|382.01| |股权融资|(1,064.45)|(310.17)|(814.77)|(1,368.80)|(1,615.66)| |其他|439.16|(324.72)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|(344.80)|(446.74)|(667.44)|(1,125.91)|(1,233.65)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(6,921.91)|(5,680.70)|5,990.97|10,382.47|11,137.70| |资产负债表(百万元)：货币资金|15,572.29|9,892.07|15,883.03|26,265.51|37,403.20| |应收票据及应收账款|9,423.83|19,845.52|7,529.54|14,712.71|3,676.86| |预付账款|9,290.99|2,071.88|13,506.68|7,332.82|13,560.66| |存货|11,649.72|13,600.85|13,961.22|19,381.97|20,797.80| |其他|661.86|1,488.64|1,879.59|1,904.77|2,034.71| |流动资产合计|46,598.70|46,898.95|52,760.06|69,597.78|77,473.24| |长期股权投资|236.34|237.34|237.34|237.34|237.34| |固定资产|4,535.12|5,641.01|6,295.83|6,300.84|6,342.72| |在建工程|1,355.19|1,743.23|1,395.26|1,186.68|1,075.68| |无形资产|974.66|1,652.78|2,013.57|2,349.37|2,565.17| |其他|1,766.44|2,294.37|1,998.68|2,048.51|2,098.51| |非流动资产合计|8,867.74|11,568.74|11,940.69|12,122.74|12,319.41| |资产总计|55,466.44|61,589.83|64,700.75|81,720.52|89,792.65| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|27,071.30|32,394.04|10,746.58|39,268.21|18,590.67| |其他|1,825.87|2,333.91|28,389.44|13,493.71|38,273.50| |流动负债合计|28,897.17|34,727.95|39,136.02|52,761.92|56,864.16| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|3,605.78|4,282.83|3,500.00|3,700.00|3,900.00| |少数股东权益|1,162.60|1,974.32|1,975.66|1,977.25|1,979.14| |股本|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70|2,755.70| |资本公积|5,049.23|5,197.20|5,197.20|5,197.20|5,197.20| |留存收益|7,641.57|9,547.46|12,226.18|15,418.45|19,186.45| |其他|(351.49)|(423.83)|(90.00)|(90.00)|(90.00)| |股东权益合计|16,257.61|19,050.84|22,064.73|25,258.60|29,028.49| |负债和股东权益总计|55,466.44|61,589.83|64,700.75|81,720.52|89,792.65| |利润表(百万元)：营业收入|46,247.78|42,837.24|49,284.24|57,194.36|66,202.47| |营业成本|41,184.21|37,497.28|43,140.62|50,014.78|57,858.87| |营业税金及附加|136.93|169.24|197.14|228.78|264.81| |销售费用|12.95|5.83|6.71|7.79|9.02| |管理费用|1,004.82|937.24|1,035.16|1,153.26|1,328.22| |研发费用|975.64|727.17|811.51|946.47|1,096.63| |财务费用|(284.87)|(281.78)|(144.65)|(232.89)|(372.01)| |资产/信用减值损失|26.47|95.63|100.00|95.00|90.00| |公允价值变动收益|0.00|(20.00)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|16.12|2.59|10.00|10.00|10.00| |其他|(221.57)|(216.69)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|3,397.08|3,920.72|4,347.75|5,181.18|6,116.94| |营业外收入|2.83|4.72|8.00|8.68|8.00| |营业外支出|5.28|10.60|5.00|5.00|5.00| |利润总额|3,394.63|3,914.84|4,350.75|5,184.86|6,119.94| |所得税|385.44|501.94|522.09|622.18|734.39| |净利润|3,009.19|3,412.90|3,828.66|4,562.68|5,385.55| |少数股东损益|2.04|18.93|1.91|2.28|2.69| |归属于母公司净利润|3,007.15|3,393.97|3,826.74|4,560.40|5,382.85| |每股收益（元）|1.09|1.23