报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/休闲食品，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 广州酒家是国内老字号“食品 + 餐饮”公司，品牌底蕴深厚、产品推陈出新，2025年股权激励计划或加持中期发展，目标25 - 27年收入维持双位数同比增长，根据24年业绩，下调25 - 26年、新增27年盈利预测，预计25 - 27年归母净利润5.5/6.2/6.9亿元，对应PE为15/13/12X，维持“买入”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 公司业绩 - 2024年营收51.2亿元、同比增长4.55%，归母净利润4.9亿元、同比下滑10.3%，扣非归母净利润4.5亿元、同比下滑10.7%；24Q4营收10.2亿元、同比下滑0.4%，归母净利润0.5亿元、同比下滑22.1%，扣非归母净利润0.2亿元、同比下滑43.7%；2024年拟每10股派发现金红利4.80元（含税），分红率约55.28%（23年分红率约49.6%） [1] 业务分拆 - 食品制造业务2024年收入35.7亿元、同比增长1.0%，毛利率37.8%、同比下滑3.3pct，其中月饼系列收入16.4亿元、同比下滑1.95%，速冻食品收入10.3亿元、同比下滑3.0%，其他产品收入9.0亿元、同比增长12.5%，持续优化产品矩阵，开拓新赛道，落实重点市场客户需求开拓 [2] - 餐饮服务业务2024年收入14.6亿元、同比增长15.2%，毛利率16.0%、同比下滑4.0pct，加大全国化布局力度，新设8家店，完成收购5家授权门店，直营门店53家 [2] - 其他商品销售业务2024年收入0.6亿元、同比下滑9.5%，毛利率17.3%、同比提升1.6pct [3] 盈利水平 - 2024年整体毛利率31.7%、同比下滑3.9pct，销售费用率9.8%、同比下滑0.5pct，管理费用率9.1%、同比下滑0.4pct，归母净利率9.6%、同比下滑1.6pct [4] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|4,900.55|5,123.69|5,689.86|6,281.60|6,922.33| |增长率(%)|19.17|4.55|11.05|10.40|10.20| |EBITDA(百万元)|956.08|761.21|837.07|941.56|1,036.11| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|550.48|493.86|545.69|619.59|692.52| |增长率(%)|5.78|-10.29|10.50|13.54|11.77| |EPS(元/股)|0.97|0.87|0.96|1.09|1.22| |市盈率(P/E)|15.10|16.83|15.23|13.41|12.00| |市净率(P/B)|2.27|2.14|2.02|1.89|1.77| |市销率(P/S)|1.70|1.62|1.46|1.32|1.20| |EV/EBITDA|8.80|8.59|5.99|4.83|4.01| [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|831.83|615.13|747.96|736.31|723.13| |负债合计|2,671.69|2,359.05|2,676.31|2,754.53|2,893.36| |股本|568.77|568.77|568.77|568.77|568.77| |股东权益合计|3,888.17|4,130.10|4,393.60|4,694.78|5,031.40| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动| - 237.49|485.83| - 140.42|260.51| - 13.62| |长期投资|6.89|6.60|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 268.21|0.00| - 329.64| - 372.29| - 416.11| [11] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|926.34|698.84|1,064.00|1,714.22|2,127.08| |应收票据及应收账款|151.83|121.26|188.33|160.44|231.60| |预付账款|25.01|24.62|29.28|29.78|35.11| |存货|306.84|322.96|371.62|401.02|460.57| |其他|452.80|984.72|1,007.46|1,004.48|1,027.22| |流动资产合计|1,862.82|2,152.41|2,660.70|3,309.93|3,881.58| |长期股权投资|46.97|53.57|53.57|53.57|53.57| |固定资产|1,776.50|1,737.49|1,606.37|1,475.25|1,344.13| |在建工程|71.31|74.98|109.98|149.98|189.98| |无形资产|156.11|157.97|152.22|146.48|140.74| |其他|2,646.15|2,312.74|2,487.07|2,314.09|2,314.76| |非流动资产合计|4,697.04|4,336.75|4,409.22|4,139.38|4,043.19| |资产总计|6,559.86|6,489.16|7,069.92|7,449.31|7,924.77| |短期借款|483.24|434.11|442.35|450.00|450.00| |应付票据及应付账款|354.64|349.28|425.12|418.01|511.29| |其他|794.16|755.88|1,060.88|1,150.21|1,208.94| |流动负债合计|1,632.03|1,539.27|1,928.35|2,018.22|2,170.23| |长期借款|196.00|0.00|120.00|110.00|100.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|635.83|615.13|627.96|626.31|623.13| |少数股东权益|231.03|252.12|273.34|297.43|324.36| |股本|568.77|568.77|568.77|568.77|568.77| |资本公积|507.65|507.65|507.65|507.65|507.65| |留存收益|2,578.97|2,799.82|3,043.85|3,320.93|3,630.63| |其他|1.75|1.75|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股东权益合计|3,888.17|4,130.10|4,393.60|4,694.78|5,031.40| |负债和股东权益总计|6,559.86|6,489.16|7,069.92|7,449.31|7,924.77| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|4,900.55|5,123.69|5,689.86|6,281.60|6,922.33| |营业成本|3,154.78|3,498.31|3,799.52|4,163.26|4,574.07| |营业税金及附加|42.27|42.03|46.67|51.52|56.78| |销售费用|505.76|502.42|552.25|609.68|671.87| |管理费用|380.18|465.95|506.06|558.69|615.68| |研发费用|87.01|81.81|90.84|100.29|110.52| |财务费用| - 18.93| - 32.42| - 33.20| - 28.18| - 31.27| |资产/信用减值损失| - 14.54|3.10| - 4.93| - 5.45| - 5.45| |公允价值变动收益|6.27|2.64|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|8.66|5.28|5.69|6.54|5.84| |其他|30.90| - 82.53|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|718.18|637.11|728.48|827.42|925.06| |营业外收入|1.73|4.24|4.24|4.24|4.24| |营业外支出|2.48|2.37|2.48|2.53|2.58| |利润总额|717.43|638.97|730.24|829.13|926.72| |所得税|134.23|119.96|137.09|155.66|173.98| |净利润|583.20|519.01|593.14|673.47|752.74| |少数股东损益|32.72|25.16|47.45|53.88|60.22| |归属于母公司净利润|550.48|493.86|545.69|619.59|692.52| |每股收益（元）|0.97|0.87|0.96|1.09|1.22| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|19.17%|4.55%|11.05%|10.40%|10.20%| |营业利润|12.30%| - 11.29%|14.34%|13.58%|11.80%| |归属于母公司净利润|5.78%| - 10.29%|10.50%|13.54%|11.77%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|35.62%|31.72%|33.22%|33.72%|33.92%| |净利率|11.23%|9.64%|9.59%|9.86%|10.00%| |ROE|15.05%|12.73%|13.24%|14.09%|14.71%| |ROIC|55.59%|50.99%|58.89%|78.86%|113.64%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|40.73%|36.35%|37.85%|36.98%|36.51%| |净负债率| - 2.99%| - 3.83%| - 8.72%| - 22.18%| - 29.04%| |流动比率|1.01|1.23|1.38|1.64|1.79| |速动比率|0.85|1.05|1.19|1.44|1.58| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|32.78|37.52|36.76|36.02|35.31| |存货周转率|15.92|16.27|16.38|16.26|16.07| |总资产周转率|0.79|0.79|0.84|0.87|0.90| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.97|0.87|0.96|1.09|1.22| |每股经营现金流|1.83|1.57|0.97|1.82|1.47| |每股净资产|