报告公司投资评级 - 行业为纺织服饰/服装家纺，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 报喜鸟未来将与Woolrich集团全面深入合作，借助其历史底蕴和品牌影响力，筹建上海研发中心，整合供应链资源，提升研发能力，实施多元化商业模式进行全球化布局，带动其他品牌国际化发展 [1] - 品牌发展初期，报喜鸟将与Woolrich集团协同，把品牌影响力从国外引入国内，拓展核心商场，同时在海外与集团合作扩大市场规模 [2] - 成长品牌乐飞叶坚持快速健康发展战略，加大研发投入提升单店业绩；恺米切完成大中华区收购后，调整策略，坚持国际品牌调性，专注打造意大利免烫衬衫 [3] - 哈吉斯专注优质渠道拓展、产品研发创新和目标客群耕耘，通过数据分析指导研发，举办营销活动提升客户粘性和忠诚度 [4] - 预计报喜鸟24 - 26年EPS分别为0.36元、0.47元、0.59元，对应PE为11x、8x、7x，维持“增持”评级 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|4,312.76|5,253.63|5,264.13|5,758.96|6,467.31| |增长率(%)|(3.11)|21.82|0.20|9.40|12.30| |EBITDA(百万元)|893.46|1,161.00|893.17|1,106.39|1,333.62| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|458.77|697.85|532.39|690.91|862.59| |增长率(%)|(1.20)|52.11|(23.71)|29.78|24.85| |EPS(元/股)|0.31|0.48|0.36|0.47|0.59| |市盈率(P/E)|12.66|8.32|10.91|8.41|6.73| |市净率(P/B)|1.48|1.34|1.34|1.33|1.28| |市销率(P/S)|1.35|1.11|1.10|1.01|0.90| |EV/EBITDA|4.09|4.88|3.99|2.91|2.82| [6] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,459.33百万股，流通A股股本1,421.50百万股，A股总市值5,808.15百万元，流通A股市值5,657.55百万元，每股净资产2.94元，资产负债率32.03%，一年内最高/最低6.25/3.12元 [8] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|1,442.60|1,891.21|1,216.39|1,627.04|1,082.81| |应收票据及应收账款|618.69|661.08|694.29|478.72|838.57| |预付账款|46.81|51.63|73.77|56.68|81.36| |存货|1,179.02|1,151.16|1,326.74|1,360.76|1,561.42| |其他|339.72|747.11|743.78|819.03|762.42| |流动资产合计|3,626.83|4,502.19|4,054.96|4,342.24|4,326.58| |长期股权投资|236.82|233.69|233.69|233.69|233.69| |固定资产|417.84|466.41|401.46|336.51|271.56| |在建工程|140.78|457.60|609.89|796.45|1,015.00| |无形资产|224.33|236.42|216.54|196.66|176.78| |其他|1,303.58|1,101.90|1,020.27|978.00|978.05| |非流动资产合计|2,323.34|2,496.02|2,481.84|2,541.30|2,675.07| |资产总计|5,990.46|7,055.13|6,536.81|6,883.54|7,001.65| |短期借款|277.63|549.36|220.00|230.00|220.00| |应付票据及应付账款|530.21|669.93|471.24|797.59|598.14| |其他|700.25|889.89|1,268.38|1,236.16|1,405.38| |流动负债合计|1,508.09|2,109.18|1,959.62|2,263.76|2,223.52| |长期借款|45.55|47.43|46.00|46.00|46.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|64.11|60.71|67.68|64.16|64.18| |非流动负债合计|109.65|108.13|113.68|110.16|110.18| |负债合计|1,941.64|2,584.80|2,073.30|2,373.92|2,333.70| |少数股东权益|113.98|128.99|128.74|130.51|136.73| |股本|1,459.33|1,459.33|1,459.33|1,459.33|1,459.33| |资本公积|769.35|769.87|769.87|769.87|769.87| |留存收益|1,705.99|2,111.98|2,105.41|2,149.74|2,301.85| |其他|0.17|0.16|0.16|0.16|0.16| |股东权益合计|4,048.82|4,470.33|4,463.51|4,509.62|4,667.95| |负债和股东权益总计|5,990.46|7,055.13|6,536.81|6,883.54|7,001.65| [11] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|4,312.76|5,253.63|5,264.13|5,758.96|6,467.31| |营业成本|1,607.09|1,854.12|1,848.24|1,992.60|2,221.52| |营业税金及附加|36.69|47.21|45.80|48.95|55.62| |销售费用|1,711.18|2,031.29|2,158.29|2,303.58|2,522.25| |管理费用|279.10|370.39|421.13|403.13|420.38| |研发费用|83.30|108.57|78.96|86.38|97.01| |财务费用|(33.43)|(49.85)|(37.21)|(25.56)|(14.81)| |资产/信用减值损失|(146.52)|(128.19)|(90.58)|(91.76)|(90.97)| |公允价值变动收益|(18.73)|(9.08)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|12.88|21.71|17.96|17.51|19.06| |其他|177.69|117.60|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |营业利润|603.52|889.86|676.30|875.63|1,093.44| |营业外收入|13.81|14.77|13.83|14.14|14.25| |营业外支出|10.57|6.10|12.96|9.87|9.64| |利润总额|606.77|898.54|677.17|879.90|1,098.04| |所得税|130.72|169.64|124.46|161.28|200.17| |净利润|476.05|728.89|552.71|718.61|897.87| |少数股东损益|17.27|31.04|20.32|27.70|35.28| |归属于母公司净利润|458.77|697.85|532.39|690.91|862.59| |每股收益（元）|0.31|0.48|0.36|0.47|0.59| [11] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|476.05|728.89|532.39|690.91|862.59| |折旧摊销|149.63|147.74|84.83|84.83|84.83| |财务费用|7.74|8.45|(37.21)|(25.56)|(14.81)| |投资损失|(12.88)|(21.71)|(17.96)|(17.51)|(19.06)| |营运资金变动|(481.17)|195.39|(227.74)|449.36|(568.23)| |其它|375.94|94.87|20.32|27.70|35.28| |经营活动现金流|515.31|1,153.64|354.63|1,209.72|380.60| |资本支出|231.55|458.69|145.32|190.07|218.54| |长期投资|(11.50)|(3.13)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(708.46)|(1,120.33)|(279.65)|(359.12)|(418.03)| |投资活动现金流|(488.41)|(664.77)|(134.33)|(169.05)|(199.50)| |债权融资|275.99|386.76|(335.60)|42.48|14.21| |股权融资|(583.20)|(364.31)|(559.53)|(672.50)|(739.54)| |其他|(224.85)|(104.13)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(532.06)|(81.68)|(895.13)|(630.02)|(725.33)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|(505.16)|407.19|(674.82)|410.65|(544.23)| [11] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|-3.11%|21.82%|0.20%|9.40%|12.30%| |营业利润|-3.46%|47.44%|-24.00%|29.47%|24.87%| |归属于母公司净利润|-1.20%|52.11%|-23.71%|29.78%|24.85%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|62.74%|64.71%|64.89%|65.40%|65.65%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|32.41%|36.64%|31.72%|34.49%|33.33%| |净负债率|-26.06%|-26.10%|-19.37%|-27.91%|-15.31%| |流动比率|2.00|1.84|2.07|1.92|1.95| |速动比率|1.36|1.38|1.39|1