报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司业绩稳健增长，营业总收入235.78亿元，同比增长16.41%；营业利润77.51亿元，同比增长23.36%；利润总额77.87亿元，同比增长22.98%；归母净利润55.14亿元，同比增长20.15%；基本每股收益10.43元，同比增长20.16%；2024Q4营收/归母净利润45.09/7.67亿元（同比+4.85%/-1.17%） [1] - 年份原浆支撑增长基本盘，24Q4降速为25年开门红奠基；2025年春糖期间发布两款新品强化大众价位布局 [1] - 25年宴席复苏背景下公司多地举办集体婚礼活动发力宴席场景，看好公司发挥多方面优势保持稳健发展 [2] - 略下调公司盈利预测，预计24 - 26年公司收入分别为235.8/260.4/289.4亿元，归母净利润分别为55.1/62.3/71.0亿元，对应PE为16.8X/14.9X/13.1X，维持“买入”评级 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|16,713.23|20,253.53|23,577.94|26,038.29|28,942.42| |增长率(%)|25.95|21.18|16.41|10.43|11.15| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,536.39|6,550.00|7,769.91|8,724.60|9,890.94| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,143.14|4,589.16|5,514.32|6,225.17|7,098.52| |增长率(%)|36.78|46.01|20.16|12.89|14.03| |EPS(元/股)|5.95|8.68|10.43|11.78|13.43| |市盈率(P/E)|29.53|20.23|16.83|14.91|13.08| |市净率(P/B)|5.01|4.31|3.83|3.41|3.02| |市销率(P/S)|5.55|4.58|3.94|3.56|3.21| |EV/EBITDA|27.76|16.30|9.74|8.15|6.99| [3] 基本数据 - A股总股本408.60百万股，流通A股股本408.60百万股，A股总市值71,750.16百万元，流通A股市值71,750.16百万元 [5] - 每股净资产45.20元，资产负债率34.23%，一年内最高/最低287.24/139.84元 [5] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|448.46|598.02|598.02|598.02|598.02| |负债合计(百万元)|10,456.97|13,006.63|10,497.11|15,251.61|12,465.65| |股本(百万元)|528.60|528.60|528.60|528.60|528.60| |股东权益合计(百万元)|19,332.85|22,414.27|25,187.07|28,320.21|31,892.02| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|602.99|(1,618.13)|(1,379.46)|1,776.10|(1,381.25)| |长期投资|4.84|0.21|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(1,582.66)|(2,377.51)|(2,906.28)|(3,278.01)|(3,738.78)| [9] 资产负债表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|13,772.56|15,966.37|16,842.33|21,500.53|23,585.87| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|62.69|68.61|114.82|87.75|124.90| |预付账款(百万元)|234.00|91.61|302.26|156.73|310.93| |存货(百万元)|6,058.11|7,519.68|6,169.11|9,405.56|7,730.94| |其他(百万元)|2,199.01|1,861.80|1,937.10|1,879.92|1,958.48| |流动资产合计(百万元)|22,326.36|25,508.07|25,365.61|33,030.49|33,711.12| |长期股权投资(百万元)|10.15|10.37|10.37|10.37|10.37| |固定资产(百万元)|2,741.84|4,596.04|4,570.68|4,366.08|4,064.02| |在建工程(百万元)|2,454.70|2,910.74|3,417.20|3,917.39|4,369.21| |无形资产(百万元)|1,108.13|1,123.19|1,078.64|1,034.09|989.54| |其他(百万元)|1,146.77|1,272.51|1,241.68|1,213.40|1,213.40| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|7,461.60|9,912.84|10,318.57|10,541.33|10,646.54| |资产总计(百万元)|29,789.82|35,420.91|35,684.18|43,571.82|44,357.67| |短期借款(百万元)|83.23|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|2,749.80|4,167.38|1,004.70|5,552.30|1,970.99| |其他(百万元)|6,348.83|6,840.11|8,894.39|9,101.29|9,896.63| |流动负债合计(百万元)|9,181.87|11,007.49|9,899.09|14,653.59|11,867.63| |长期借款(百万元)|44.94|107.11|107.11|107.11|107.11| |应付债券(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他(百万元)|403.52|490.92|490.92|490.92|490.92| |少数股东权益(百万元)|812.10|888.96|969.45|1,060.32|1,163.93| |股本(百万元)|528.60|528.60|528.60|528.60|528.60| |资本公积(百万元)|6,224.75|6,224.75|6,224.75|6,224.75|6,224.75| |留存收益(百万元)|11,767.00|14,770.37|17,464.51|20,505.95|23,974.09| |其他(百万元)|0.41|1.60|(0.24)|0.59|0.65| |股东权益合计(百万元)|19,332.85|22,414.27|25,187.07|28,320.21|31,892.02| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|29,789.82|35,420.91|35,684.18|43,571.82|44,357.67| [10] 利润表 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|16,713.23|20,253.53|23,577.94|26,038.29|28,942.42| |营业成本(百万元)|3,816.32|4,239.85|4,855.68|5,290.94|5,734.34| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|2,824.06|3,050.10|3,550.74|3,921.26|4,358.62| |销售费用(百万元)|4,668.19|5,436.77|6,164.12|6,729.23|7,421.88| |管理费用(百万元)|1,166.78|1,367.15|1,551.00|1,686.80|1,846.00| |研发费用(百万元)|56.67|70.95|86.73|95.79|106.47| |财务费用(百万元)|(216.30)|(162.24)|(180.87)|(212.37)|(250.76)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(10.74)|(30.16)|6.16|6.16|6.16| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|29.15|19.99|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益(百万元)|(10.80)|(6.34)|(33.81)|(33.81)|(33.81)| |其他(百万元)|(62.82)|(15.47)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|4,452.73|6,282.93|7,522.88|8,498.99|9,698.24| |营业外收入(百万元)|50.77|85.07|85.07|85.07|85.07| |营业外支出(百万元)|33.01|35.85|35.85|35.85|35.85| |利润总额(百万元)|4,470.49|6,332.15|7,572.09|8,548.21|9,747.46| |所得税(百万元)|1,218.66|1,605.88|1,893.02|2,137.05|2,436.86| |净利润(百万元)|3,251.83|4,726.27|5,679.07|6,411.15|7,310.59| |少数股东损益(百万元)|108.69|137.11|164.75|185.98|212.08| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|3,143.14|4,589.16|5,514.32|6,225.17|7,098.52| |每股收益（元）|5.95|8.68|10.43|11.78|13.43| [10] 主要财务比率 |项目|2022|2023|2024E|2025E|2026E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入增长率|25.95%|21.18%|16.41%|10.43%|11.15%| |营业利润增长率|43.56%|41.10%|19.74%|12.98%|14.11%| |归属于母公司净利润增长率|36.78%|46.01%|20.16%|12.89%|14.03%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|77.17%|79.07%|79.41%|79.68%|80.19%| |净利率|18.81%|22.66%|23.39%|23.91%|24.53%| |ROE|16.97%|21.32%|22.77%|22.84%|23.10%| |ROIC|126.66%|135.86%|105.80%|88.14%|127.56%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|35.10%|36.7