报告公司投资评级 - 行业为石油石化/炼化及贸易，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司实现营业收入2364亿元，同比+0.65%；归母净利润70亿，同比+2%，扣非归母净利润52亿元，同比-13%；Q4归母净利润19亿，扣非净利润6亿，主要因计提库存减值损失 [1] - 2024年公司原油/煤炭采购价4208/693元/吨，同比+0.16%/-15%；炼化/PTA/新材料产品平均售价5415/4982/7403元/吨，同比-2.3%/-2.4%/-11.2%；2025年原油及动力煤价格回落，炼厂端有望受益 [2] - 2024年下半年公司基本结束本轮资本开支高峰期，后续经营重心为精细化成本管控下的“优化运营、降低负债和强化分红”；2024年公司分红比例45%，分红金额32亿 [3] - 近年来成品油市场整顿力度加大，市场规范化程度提高；2025年相关政策对供给端形成约束，山东地炼开工率下滑，成品油裂解价差回升；丙烷关税提升或助力烯烃提价，公司石脑油路线制烯烃有望受益 [4] - 受芳烃价差回落影响，将公司2025/2026年归母净利润预测由120/130亿下调至90/110亿，给予2027年归母净利润预测130亿，2025年4月16日收盘价对应PE分别为12/10/8倍，维持“买入”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|234,866.13|236,400.58|248,220.61|260,631.64|273,663.22| |增长率(%)|5.62|0.65|5.00|5.00|5.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|24,998.37|26,464.88|31,860.29|35,425.31|38,042.59| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|6,904.60|7,043.57|9,011.30|11,007.24|12,970.16| |增长率(%)|197.83|2.01|27.94|22.15|17.83| |EPS(元/股)|0.98|1.00|1.28|1.56|1.84| |市盈率(P/E)|15.80|15.49|12.11|9.91|8.41| |市净率(P/B)|1.82|1.72|1.55|1.39|1.21| |市销率(P/S)|0.46|0.46|0.44|0.42|0.40| |EV/EBITDA|8.69|9.01|7.67|6.91|6.44| [5] 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|20,469.04|30,836.64|19,857.65|20,850.53|21,893.06| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|538.42|607.63|595.72|667.80|658.89| |预付账款(百万元)|1,735.56|2,432.13|1,930.56|2,421.95|2,221.51| |存货(百万元)|31,267.55|24,251.46|44,032.19|24,517.59|49,297.83| |流动资产合计(百万元)|66,083.15|73,269.56|78,615.19|61,306.78|87,944.50| |长期股权投资(百万元)|646.00|745.87|745.87|745.87|745.87| |固定资产(百万元)|129,987.35|147,008.44|138,263.95|146,519.47|136,199.98| |在建工程(百万元)|48,824.14|38,393.83|53,393.83|63,393.83|73,393.83| |无形资产(百万元)|9,034.82|9,147.17|8,860.79|8,574.41|8,288.02| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|194,515.87|199,813.31|207,295.58|223,628.44|222,301.85| |资产总计(百万元)|260,599.02|273,082.87|285,910.77|284,935.22|310,246.35| |短期借款(百万元)|66,995.05|79,041.95|89,003.10|96,388.03|103,907.90| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|27,601.12|20,936.96|28,617.06|23,093.92|30,884.54| |流动负债合计(百万元)|115,359.39|123,642.26|149,797.16|148,831.85|170,078.88| |长期借款(百万元)|70,620.91|72,289.11|59,977.36|51,254.36|44,236.01| |少数股东权益(百万元)|6.16|18.39|21.33|26.06|34.61| |股东权益合计(百万元)|59,998.56|63,417.56|70,494.69|78,763.60|89,856.84| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|260,599.02|273,082.87|285,910.77|284,935.22|310,246.35| [13] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|234,866.13|236,400.58|248,220.61|260,631.64|273,663.22| |营业成本(百万元)|208,383.85|212,983.33|217,441.25|226,905.90|236,855.51| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|9,200.63|6,423.61|6,744.79|7,082.03|7,436.13| |销售费用(百万元)|293.47|326.43|446.80|443.07|465.23| |管理费用(百万元)|1,997.37|2,204.68|2,314.91|2,430.65|2,552.19| |研发费用(百万元)|1,371.03|1,702.88|1,788.03|1,877.43|1,971.30| |财务费用(百万元)|5,364.76|5,233.63|5,718.06|5,716.01|5,684.23| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(701.75)|(1,520.28)|(1,544.68)|(1,558.22)|(1,541.06)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|370.55|325.00|(157.08)|0.23|52.21| |投资净收益(百万元)|(36.57)|(137.20)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润(百万元)|8,899.81|8,549.50|12,065.02|14,618.54|17,209.77| |营业外收入(百万元)|79.82|278.59|0.00|119.47|132.69| |营业外支出(百万元)|106.39|8.31|45.13|53.28|35.57| |利润总额(百万元)|8,873.23|8,819.79|12,019.89|14,684.74|17,306.89| |所得税(百万元)|1,968.77|1,766.78|3,004.97|3,671.18|4,326.72| |净利润(百万元)|6,904.46|7,053.01|9,014.92|11,013.55|12,980.17| |少数股东损益(百万元)|(0.14)|9.44|3.62|6.31|10.00| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|6,904.60|7,043.57|9,011.30|11,007.24|12,970.16| |每股收益（元）|0.98|1.00|1.28|1.56|1.84| [13] 现金流量表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|6,904.46|7,053.01|9,011.30|11,007.24|12,970.16| |折旧摊销(百万元)|9,697.70|10,992.46|11,030.87|12,030.87|12,105.87| |财务费用(百万元)|4,640.96|4,504.91|5,718.06|5,716.01|5,684.23| |投资损失(百万元)|(138.13)|(61.01)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营运资金变动(百万元)|4,190.67|(1,246.25)|(7,274.02)|10,955.23|(11,261.59)| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|23,535.79|22,732.57|18,332.75|39,715.89|19,560.88| |资本支出(百万元)|40,274.35|16,736.77|17,855.34|29,556.15|11,510.79| |长期投资(百万元)|86.78|99.87|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(38,814.50)|(20,902.27)|(17,000.00)|(30,000.00)|(11,500.00)| |债权融资(百万元)|8,736.18|9,864.89|(10,373.95)|(5,978.36)|(5,131.42)| |股权融资(百万元)|(3,646.25)|234.71|(1,937.79)|(2,744.64)|(1,886.93)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|9,909.70|7,817.28|(12,311.74)|(8,723.01)|(7,018.35)| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(5,369.01)|9,647.58|(10,978.99)|992.88|1,042.53| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入增长率(%)|5.62|0.65|5.00|5.00|5.00| |营业利润增长率(%)|282.80|-3.94|41.12|21.16|17.73| |归属于母公司净利润增长率(%)|197.83|2.01|27.94|22.15|17.83| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率(%)|11.28|9.91|12.40|12.94|13.45| |净利率(%)|2.94|2.98|3.63|4.22|4.74| |ROE(%)|11.51|11.11|12.79|13.98|14.44| |ROIC(%)|7.32|5.98|6.88|7.41|8.01| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率(%)|76.98|76.78|75.34|72.36|71.04| |净负债率(%)