报告公司投资评级 - 行业为国防军工/军工电子Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），当前价格36.3元 [6] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司营收和归母净利润下降，主要受宏观经济、行业景气度及下游市场需求复苏迟缓影响，未来有望出现需求拐点 [1] - 军队信息化建设新一轮周期启动，有望牵引公司业绩增长，25年公司订单恢复或带来业绩复苏，多品类布局有望打开新业绩增长点 [2] - 核心产品下游应用取得阶段性进展，需求端有望迎来复苏，新材料业务有望持续高速增长 [3] - 伴随新一轮采购周期到来，公司元器件订单拐点或已出现，新材料业务快速成长，预计2025 - 2027年归母净利润分别为5.02/7.22/9.50亿元，对应PE分别为33.40/23.22/17.64X [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|3,503.59|2,801.50|3,753.56|5,001.32|6,586.35| |增长率(%)|(1.55)|(20.04)|33.98|33.24|31.69| |EBITDA(百万元)|844.66|638.68|904.51|1,187.30|1,470.68| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|318.38|194.52|502.13|722.29|950.34| |增长率(%)|(60.27)|(38.90)|158.14|43.85|31.57| |EPS(元/股)|0.69|0.42|1.09|1.56|2.06| |市盈率(P/E)|52.67|86.21|33.40|23.22|17.64| |市净率(P/B)|3.10|3.06|2.85|2.59|2.32| |市销率(P/S)|4.79|5.99|4.47|3.35|2.55| |EV/EBITDA|14.59|21.84|18.55|15.65|12.08| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本461.95百万股，流通A股股本461.95百万股，A股总市值16,768.62百万元，流通A股市值16,768.62百万元 [7] - 每股净资产11.82元，资产负债率25.82%，一年内最高/最低43.00/19.07元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|998.87|969.85|1,082.02|400.11|526.91| |应收票据及应收账款|1,989.73|1,698.52|2,292.53|3,763.91|4,135.49| |预付账款|24.98|15.96|61.02|40.48|66.23| |存货|1,305.76|1,309.57|1,166.13|2,561.58|2,198.59| |其他|416.04|471.98|382.29|555.57|488.48| |流动资产合计|4,735.38|4,465.87|4,984.00|7,321.64|7,415.71| |长期股权投资|23.15|16.35|16.35|16.35|16.35| |固定资产|2,046.13|2,414.89|2,295.81|2,178.32|2,090.76| |在建工程|343.44|82.51|197.75|208.43|185.06| |无形资产|266.22|242.70|219.38|196.05|172.73| |其他|505.35|485.15|524.91|461.89|452.71| |非流动资产合计|3,184.30|3,241.60|3,254.21|3,061.05|2,917.62| |资产总计|7,919.67|7,707.48|8,238.21|10,382.69|10,333.33| |短期借款|563.42|286.01|500.00|1,406.42|902.53| |应付票据及应付账款|490.01|459.97|436.64|890.97|797.90| |其他|188.15|248.76|221.82|235.35|237.72| |流动负债合计|1,241.58|994.74|1,158.46|2,532.75|1,938.15| |长期借款|425.61|388.94|400.00|587.87|400.00| |应付债券|391.95|402.75|385.59|390.15|392.61| |其他|185.38|200.80|182.69|197.61|191.62| |少数股东权益|252.64|231.04|223.66|207.41|175.62| |股本|458.90|458.34|461.95|461.95|461.95| |资本公积|1,298.46|1,263.09|1,263.09|1,263.09|1,263.09| |留存收益|3,656.49|3,750.80|4,151.46|4,732.83|5,498.88| |其他|1.89|13.90|11.31|9.03|11.41| |股东权益合计|5,668.37|5,717.17|6,111.47|6,674.31|7,410.95| |负债和股东权益总计|7,919.67|7,707.48|8,238.21|10,382.69|10,333.33| [13] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|3,503.59|2,801.50|3,753.56|5,001.32|6,586.35| |营业成本|2,432.11|1,926.60|2,521.31|3,284.47|4,212.24| |营业税金及附加|24.52|25.11|26.27|35.01|52.69| |销售费用|178.73|171.47|187.68|245.06|362.25| |管理费用|275.04|311.19|295.78|387.60|513.74| |研发费用|144.88|112.15|114.48|155.04|235.79| |财务费用|37.20|26.57|2.78|26.27|36.88| |资产/信用减值损失|(82.72)|(65.95)|(48.52)|(55.85)|(63.26)| |公允价值变动收益|0.66|(0.63)|32.18|19.75|(23.90)| |投资净收益|(4.29)|3.96|(1.31)|(0.53)|(0.54)| |其他|133.05|77.41|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|364.44|213.64|587.60|831.24|1,085.06| |营业外收入|0.07|1.61|0.67|1.00|0.84| |营业外支出|6.34|4.62|7.72|5.26|5.98| |利润总额|358.17|210.63|580.55|826.97|1,079.91| |所得税|44.70|35.38|87.66|124.87|169.01| |净利润|313.47|175.24|492.89|702.10|910.91| |少数股东损益|(4.91)|(19.28)|(9.24)|(20.19)|(39.43)| |归属于母公司净利润|318.38|194.52|502.13|722.29|950.34| |每股收益（元）|0.69|0.42|1.09|1.56|2.06| [13] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|313.47|175.24|502.13|722.29|950.34| |折旧摊销|201.16|225.74|227.16|230.14|234.25| |财务费用|37.48|34.49|2.78|26.27|36.88| |投资损失|3.01|(4.07)|1.31|0.53|0.54| |营运资金变动|308.84|117.46|(502.50)|(2,453.46)|(77.11)| |其它|2.82|105.22|22.94|(0.44)|(63.33)| |经营活动现金流|866.78|654.08|253.83|(1,474.67)|1,081.57| |资本支出|538.61|246.91|218.11|85.08|105.99| |长期投资|6.02|(6.80)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(1,118.63)|(541.21)|(415.94)|(231.68)|(166.95)| |投资活动现金流|(574.01)|(301.10)|(197.83)|(146.60)|(60.95)| |债权融资|70.05|(273.80)|154.77|1,078.61|(719.55)| |股权融资|(92.46)|(55.80)|(98.59)|(139.26)|(174.26)| |其他|(100.89)|(81.03)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流|(123.30)|(410.63)|56.18|939.35|(893.81)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|169.48|(57.64)|112.17|(681.92)|126.80| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|-1.55%|-20.04%|33.98%|33.24%|31.69%| |营业利润|-62.63%|-41.38%|175.05%|41.46%|30.54%| |归属于母公司净利润|-60.27%|-38.90%|158.14%|43.85%|31.57%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|30.58%|31.23%|32.83%|34.33%|36.05%| |净利率|9.09%|6.94%|13.38%|14.44%|14.43%| |ROE|5.88%|3.55%|8.53%|11.17%|13.13%| |ROIC|6.20%|3.57%|9.18%|12.35%|11.43%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|28.43%|25.82%|25.82%|35.72%|28.28%| |净负债率|8.09%|4.20%|4.67%|31.05%|17.04%| |流动比率|3.79|4.48|4.30|2.89|3.83| |速动比率|2.75|3.16|3.30|1.88|2.69| |营运能力| | | | | | |