报告公司投资评级 - 行业为机械设备/工程机械，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 三一重工2024年年报业绩优异，实现收入783.83亿元，同比+5.9%，归母净利润59.75亿元，同比+31.98% [1] - 公司坚持高质量发展，经营质量进一步改善，现金流大幅改善，经营风险有效控制，资本开支连续三年下滑 [2] - 公司产品竞争力持续增强，主要产品市场份额持续提升，挖掘机械、混凝土机械等主导产品国内市场份额第一 [3] - 公司全球化提质加速，国际竞争力持续提升，全球主要市场实现高速增长 [4] - 公司积极推进数智化转型，引领行业低碳化，各类新能源产品均取得市场领先地位 [5] - 预计公司2025 - 2027年归母净利润分别为86.1/112.9/137.7亿元，YOY分别为44.1%、31.0%、22.0%，对应PE分别为18.9/14.4/11.8X，维持“买入”评级 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|74,018.94|78,383.38|92,331.75|107,085.01|119,916.75| |增长率(%)|(8.42)|5.90|17.80|15.98|11.98| |EBITDA(百万元)|14,590.12|16,436.44|14,136.75|17,567.46|20,751.24| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|4,527.50|5,975.45|8,612.12|11,285.43|13,772.73| |增长率(%)|5.96|31.98|44.13|31.04|22.04| |EPS(元/股)|0.53|0.71|1.02|1.33|1.63| |市盈率(P/E)|35.92|27.22|18.88|14.41|11.81| |市净率(P/B)|2.39|2.26|2.10|1.93|1.76| |市销率(P/S)|2.20|2.07|1.76|1.52|1.36| |EV/EBITDA|5.85|6.09|7.65|5.97|4.65| [10] 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|18,071.83|20,383.18|34,492.88|37,995.65|47,018.11| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|24,470.78|25,914.16|25,381.25|28,161.25|25,135.08| |预付账款(百万元)|751.87|970.72|879.28|1,034.17|853.87| |存货(百万元)|19,767.76|19,947.98|20,752.09|21,769.07|20,711.83| |流动资产合计(百万元)|97,566.21|101,406.11|116,764.64|124,933.33|129,794.51| |长期股权投资(百万元)|2,400.91|2,424.52|2,404.52|2,459.67|2,479.26| |固定资产(百万元)|23,453.24|22,369.35|23,451.37|25,283.39|26,865.42| |在建工程(百万元)|1,366.93|1,139.96|1,139.96|1,139.96|1,139.96| |无形资产(百万元)|5,120.75|4,857.95|4,445.02|4,032.09|3,619.17| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|53,569.01|50,639.76|50,734.46|52,351.75|53,479.83| |资产总计(百万元)|151,202.32|152,145.08|167,499.09|177,285.08|183,274.34| |短期借款(百万元)|4,115.62|5,953.36|6,000.00|6,000.00|6,000.00| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|22,692.73|28,654.36|32,395.75|35,638.10|30,443.29| |流动负债合计(百万元)|52,237.38|61,148.40|73,189.52|75,981.67|73,630.66| |长期借款(百万元)|23,555.73|11,556.18|12,000.00|12,000.00|12,000.00| |负债合计(百万元)|82,029.37|79,143.48|89,012.00|91,914.71|89,521.86| |股东权益合计(百万元)|69,172.95|73,001.60|78,487.10|85,370.37|93,752.48| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|151,202.32|152,145.08|167,499.09|177,285.08|183,274.34| [12] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|74,018.94|78,383.38|92,331.75|107,085.01|119,916.75| |营业成本(百万元)|52,934.70|57,216.96|66,600.12|76,538.09|84,961.80| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|423.71|431.16|455.53|554.61|639.69| |销售费用(百万元)|6,218.28|5,464.21|5,909.23|6,425.10|6,955.17| |管理费用(百万元)|2,650.90|2,996.45|3,323.94|3,747.98|4,317.00| |研发费用(百万元)|5,864.60|5,380.62|5,724.57|6,210.93|6,715.34| |财务费用(百万元)|(462.90)|201.78|(273.81)|(211.55)|(199.43)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(1,257.76)|(1,098.29)|(1,000.00)|(1,020.76)|(1,026.11)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|21.15|109.56|(16.50)|(34.01)|20.05| |投资净收益(百万元)|(177.08)|643.01|403.99|289.97|445.66| |营业利润(百万元)|5,342.85|6,994.76|9,979.66|13,055.05|15,966.78| |营业外收入(百万元)|98.55|120.03|149.98|148.55|129.27| |营业外支出(百万元)|124.80|207.02|144.77|154.20|157.70| |利润总额(百万元)|5,316.60|6,907.77|9,984.88|13,049.40|15,938.36| |所得税(百万元)|710.44|815.23|1,178.38|1,540.05|1,880.99| |净利润(百万元)|4,606.16|6,092.54|8,806.50|11,509.35|14,057.37| |少数股东损益(百万元)|78.66|117.09|194.37|223.92|284.64| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|4,527.50|5,975.45|8,612.12|11,285.43|13,772.73| |每股收益（元）|0.53|0.71|1.02|1.33|1.63| [12] 现金流量表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润(百万元)|4,606.16|6,092.54|8,612.12|11,285.43|13,772.73| |折旧摊销(百万元)|2,901.11|3,259.08|3,330.90|3,580.90|3,830.90| |财务费用(百万元)|87.50|629.87|(273.81)|(211.55)|(199.43)| |投资损失(百万元)|177.08|(643.37)|(403.99)|(289.97)|(445.66)| |营运资金变动(百万元)|(9,375.96)|3,673.72|10,813.82|(2,203.50)|1,300.52| |其它(百万元)|7,312.33|1,802.45|177.87|189.91|304.69| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|5,708.22|14,814.28|22,256.92|12,351.22|18,563.74| |资本支出(百万元)|3,884.59|1,796.72|4,095.59|4,889.44|5,041.85| |长期投资(百万元)|161.86|23.61|(20.00)|55.16|19.59| |其他(百万元)|(6,740.28)|(2,978.18)|(8,332.96)|(9,555.60)|(9,453.21)| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(2,693.82)|(1,157.85)|(4,257.37)|(4,611.01)|(4,391.77)| |债权融资(百万元)|1,698.73|(8,228.63)|(568.85)|388.65|525.74| |股权融资(百万元)|(1,926.53)|(425.22)|(3,321.00)|(4,626.08)|(5,675.25)| |其他(百万元)|(7,301.99)|(1,625.29)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(7,529.79)|(10,279.15)|(3,889.85)|(4,237.43)|(5,149.51)| |汇率变动影响(百万元)|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额(百万元)|(4,515.40)|3,377.28|14,109.70|3,502.78|9,022.46| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入增长率(%)|-8.42|5.90|17.80|15.98|11.98| |营业利润增长率(%)|12.55|30.92|42.67|30.82|22.30| |归属于母公司净利润增长率(%)|5.96|31.98|44.13|31.04|22.04| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率(%)|28.48|27.00|27.87|28.53|29.15| |净利率(%)|6.12|7.62|9.33|10.54|11.49| |ROE(%)|6.65|8.30|11.14|13.42|14.92| |ROIC(%)|17.47|17.36|26.44|49.67|53